$120 Oil and a Closed Strait

TL;DR

Brent crude blew past $120 after Iran shut the Strait of Hormuz, choking 20% of global oil transit. Futures are bleeding, yields are climbing on inflation fears, and the safe-haven trade is ripping. The system has been out of Nasdaq for weeks and overweight energy - positioning that looks prescient this morning.

Market Pulse

Futures as of 6:30 AM ET, March 6

S&P 500 futures: ~6,863, down 0.6%
Dow futures: Under pressure after Thursday's 1.6% drop to 47,954
Nasdaq 100 futures: Down 0.3%, underperforming on continued tech weakness

Brent crude: Above $120/barrel - up 30%+ since Operation Roaring Lion began Feb 28
Gold: Above $2,800/oz, surging on safe-haven demand
10-year Treasury yield: Multi-week highs as oil-driven inflation fears reprice rate cut expectations
Bitcoin: Rallying alongside gold as a non-fiat hedge

The Strait of Hormuz closure is the single biggest variable. Twenty percent of the world's oil moves through that chokepoint. Until it reopens - or the conflict de-escalates - energy prices dictate everything else. The market is now pricing a Fed rate cut no earlier than September, pushed back from July, entirely because oil is rewriting the inflation math.

Risk Gauge

Both models remain fully invested with 98%+ equity exposure. The system entered this crisis already positioned for it: energy overweight, Nasdaq off, broad market on. That's not a prediction about Iran.

The THOR View

A week into airstrikes and Hormuz is shut. Iran launched 500+ ballistic missiles and 2,000 drones. Oil ripped 30%. And the system didn't flinch.

Here's why that matters: the index rotation model turned Nasdaq off weeks ago, before anyone was pricing a Middle East war premium. Energy was already the largest sector weight in the low volatility model. These weren't war trades. They were trend trades that happened to front-run the biggest geopolitical shock since 2022.

The positioning makes structural sense right now. Energy benefits directly from supply disruption. Industrials and materials hold up in inflationary environments. Staples and healthcare are defensive anchors. Utilities provide yield when bond math gets ugly. And being out of Nasdaq, financials, and real estate removes the sectors most vulnerable to rising rates and risk-off sentiment.

Could this get worse? Absolutely. If Hormuz stays closed for weeks, $120 oil becomes $150 oil, and we're talking recession risk. But the system doesn't need to predict that outcome. It reads the trend in real time and adjusts. Right now, the trend says: stay invested, stay diversified away from tech, stay heavy in energy. That's exactly where we are.

One Thing to Watch

The weekend. If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed into next week, oil could test $140 and the inflation repricing accelerates hard. Watch for any diplomatic signals Friday evening or Saturday - markets will gap violently in either direction Sunday night. The spread between Brent crude and WTI is also worth monitoring. A widening spread signals worsening logistics, not just supply fear.