Daily Market Brief
Systematic signals, ETF positioning, and what the data is actually showing. Published weekday mornings.
48 editions in the archive
Latest Editions
Markets Test Six-Month Lows
Equity markets falling while THOR holds the line with Dow and S&P 500
Oil Crosses $105 as Iran War Enters Month Two
The energy trade is working. Here's what the system sees next.
The 15-Point Bluff
Washington sends Tehran a ceasefire plan. Tehran says no one is talking. Oil drops below $100 anyway.
All Editions
The Relief Trade Lasted One Session
Brent above $101 as Hormuz stays shut and futures fade Monday's bounce
Asia Crashed. US Futures Flipped. The Ultimatum Expires Tomorrow.
Dow futures +830 after overnight panic as Trump gives Iran 48 hours on the Strait of Hormuz
War Premium: Oil at $98, the Fed on Hold, and a Market Looking for a Floor
The S&P gave back 3% in three days.
No Relief: $98 Brent, Nikkei -3.4%, and Quad-Witching on Deck
Asia sold off hard overnight, US futures point lower, and the Fed isn't coming to the rescue.
Brent $113 and the Selloff Deepens
Equities hit 2026 lows as oil jumps 5% overnight and rate cut odds crater.
The Dot Plot Is the Event. Oil Just Got a Relief Valve.
Iraq bypasses Hormuz, crude eases off $103, and the Fed steps up at 2 PM. The projections matter more than the hold.
Futures Rally Into The Fed. Brent Holds Triple Digits.
PPI at 8:30, the FOMC convenes, and crude above $100 hasn't dented the bid.
The Fed, The ECB, and $100 Oil
Futures tick higher into the biggest week of the month.
War, Oil, and the Week That Broke the Rally
The Iran conflict reshuffled everything this week. Here is where THOR stands heading into Monday.
Futures Reverse Overnight. Oil Holds $95.
Markets panic-sold in Asia, then reversed. Here is what changed.
Oil Past $95, Hormuz on Lockdown.
Energy runs the tape while tech keeps bleeding.
Oil swings $36 in 48 hours.
Oil swings $36 in 48 hours. The system didn't flinch.
$88 Oil and a Green Tape?
Crude pulled back 20% from yesterday spike. Futures are down. CPI tomorrow is the next test.
$100 Oil is Back.
Iran disruption pushes crude past $100 as equities grind through correction territory.
The Strait That Matters More Than the Fed
Oil tanker traffic collapsed 92% last week. Here's what it means for your portfolio.
$120 Oil and a Closed Strait
The biggest supply disruption since the Gulf War is playing out in real time. The system is fully invested - with one deliberate exception.
Tariff Whiplash Gives Way to a Bounce
Futures recover as USMCA reprieve calms North American trade fears
An Overnight Deal?
Iran Operatives Made an Offer to Discuss Terms for Ending the War
Largest Strikes Yet - Markets Brace as Iran Conflict Deepens
Futures down over 1% across the board. Oil holds elevated.
Iran Strikes Jolt Markets - Oil Spikes, Futures Sink
Oil Spikes, Futures Sink, and the System Was Already Positioned
War - The Signal - Sunday Edition
War in the Middle East. Hormuz is closed. Monday could be ugly.
Pressure at the Open, Discipline in the Positioning
Yesterday cooled momentum, today's macro prints will decide whether this is a dip-buy setup or a deeper reset.
Futures Flatline Before the Data Drop - Wall Street is pausing into the open
Wall Street is pausing into the open, NVDA reported after the bell
Futures Drift Higher Into a Data-Heavy Morning
Overnight calm is giving way to a high-stakes open, with policy headlines and earnings likely to set today’s tone.
Futures Rebound Faces a Policy Reality Check
A softer open is trying to stabilize, but policy headlines and rate pressure still have room to reset the tone before the bell.
Headline Risk Meets Model Strength: Futures Slip While Risk Stays Elevated
The tape points lower before the bell, but our adaptive posture still reflects broad participation under the surface.
The Supreme Court Said no.
The Supreme Court struck down IEEPA tariffs. Trump raised them to 15% anyway. Gold broke records. Go USA Hockey. Weekend Edition.
Quiet Before the Storm
Markets hold their breath as key economic data drops this morning, a tariff court decision looms, and investors load up on equities ahead of next week s AI earnings gauntlet.
Pre-Market Pause -- Walmart's Earnings Will Tell Us If the Consumer Is Still in the Game
Futures slip modestly after a three-day win streak -- today's retail bellwether and Fed rate signals set the tone for where equities head next.
The Quiet Rotation Behind This Morning's Green Tape
Futures are up but the signals underneath tell a different story. Defensives leading, growth getting trimmed.
Presidents' Day Hangover Meets Thin Tape
Value rotation still leading -- Nasdaq down 0.6% while our systems stay defensive
The Signal - Weekend Edition- Sunday, February 15, 2026
Inflation cooled. Tech sold. And the system just kept doing its thing.
Friday the 13th: Tech Gets Spooked, Defensives Hold the Line
The Tech Rotation Is Real
The Signal - Jobs Blowout Rewrite Rate Cut Calendar
Jobs Surprise Rewrites the Rate-Cut Calendar -- And Iran Rewrites the Risk Map
Jobs Day
Jobs Day, Dow Three-Peat, and Why the Rest of the World Is Beating America
Japan Breaks Out, Gold Hits $5k
Japan's Record Rally, Gold Above $5K, and the Data Week That Could Change Everything
Dow 50K Is in the Rearview. Now the Real Test Begins.
Dow 50K Is in the Rearview. This Weeks Data Decides What Comes Next.
The Weekly Signal — Sunday Edition
Dow reclaims 50K while Nasdaq drops 1.8% — the 4.3% spread tells the whole story
Bitcoin's 15% Crash Tells You More Than Futures Do
Cryptos worst week since FTX. Small caps lead the bounce. THOR tech-off positioning holds up.
AI Spending Shock, Bitcoin Breaks $70K.
Alphabet beats but drops on massive capex. Qualcomm, ARM, AMD all punished. Bitcoin breaks $70K. THOR positioning avoids the damage.
AI Is Eating Software.
Claude Cowork crushes software stocks. Tech leads S&P lower. Gold stages biggest 2-day gain since 2008.
Gold's $266 Bounce Is Noise. The Rotation Is Signal.
S&P flirts with records, precious metals snap back, and Palantir reignites the AI trade.
The Signal - Monday, February 2, 2026
January sector scoreboard tells the whole story. Plus: ISM Manufacturing and jobs week ahead.
The Weekly Signal — Sunday Edition
Week in review, allocation updates, weekend reading, and a quote to carry into the week.
January's Over — The Rotation Nobody Repositioned For
THOR Market Brief — January 31, 2026
Get The Signal Every Morning
Brad Roth's daily market brief — systematic signals, ETF positioning, and what the data is actually showing. Free to subscribe.
Subscribe on Beehiiv