Iran Strikes Jolt Markets - Oil Spikes, Futures Sink | The Signal

TL;DR

U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran have sent oil surging past $72 and Dow futures down over 500 points to start the week. The flight to safety is on - gold, Treasuries, and the dollar are all catching bids. THOR's systems had already rotated out of the most vulnerable exposures before the geopolitical shock hit.

Market Pulse

Futures as of 7:00 AM ET, March 2

Dow futures are down roughly 500 points (-1.05%)

S&P 500 futures off 0.47%

Nasdaq futures down 0.38%.

The gap-down follows the most significant geopolitical escalation in years - the U.S.-Israeli military operation that killed Irans not the base case, but its hotter-than-expected PPI print. Bonds are trading the war, not the inflation data.

Bitcoin and crypto remain open but directionless as traditional risk assets reprice.

Airlines are already canceling flights across the Middle East - Delta, United, and American have suspended routes through early March. Amazon Web Services reported an outage after "objects" hit a UAE data center. This conflict is bleeding into real economic activity fast.

THOR Risk Gauge

Cautiously Constructive

The system remains majority risk-on (77% of signals) but with meaningful defensive positioning already in place. Tech, Financials, and Nasdaq are OFF.

The THOR View

Here's what matters: the system moved before the bombs dropped.

THOR Index Rotation had already shifted to a 50/50 Dow-S&P split with Nasdaq turned OFF - reducing tech concentration by design. When megacap names sold off last week (Nvidia -4.2% Friday alone), the fundt need to predict a war in Iran to be positioned for one. The signals detected deteriorating momentum in tech and financials weeks ago. The rotation happened systematically. Now, with oil spiking and risk assets selling off, the portfolio is tilted toward the sectors that benefit from exactly this environment.

Signal Watch

THOR Index Rotation (as of 2/13/26)

Index	Weight	Signal	Status
Dow (DIA)	49.73%	Risk-On	🟢
S&P 500 (SPY)	47.84%	Risk-On	🟢
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)	0.50%	Risk-Off	🔴
Cash + T-Bills (BIL)	2.01%	-	-

THOR Low Volatility (as of 2/12/26)

Sector	Weight	Signal	Status
Materials (XLB)	15.52%	Risk-On	🟢
Energy (XLE)	14.92%	Risk-On	🟢
Industrials (XLI)	14.53%	Risk-On	🟢
Consumer Staples (XLP)	14.49%	Risk-On	🟢
Healthcare (XLV)	12.86%	Risk-On	🟢
Utilities (XLU)	12.77%	Risk-On	🟢
Real Estate (XLRE)	0.35%	Risk-Off	🔴
Technology (XLK)	0.45%	Risk-Off	🔴
Financials (XLF)	-	Risk-Off	🔴
Cash (BIL)	0.87%	-	-

One Thing to Watch

Fridays weak, the flight to safety intensifies. Either way, volatility isnt guarantee future results, and all investments involve risk. For more information, please go to: thorft.com

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Iran Strikes Jolt Markets - Oil Spikes, Futures Sink