Ragen Stienke
30 Years of SMID Cap Alpha: What Still Works
Ragen Stienke is the founder of Ballast Asset Management, and his investing career spans over two decades in institutional money management. He started at Arthur Andersen's valuation group in the mid-1990s, where he met one of his current business partners. He then moved to UBS in New York as a software analyst before shifting into strategy, where he met his other partner. In 2004, he was recruited to Westwood Holdings in Dallas, where he started and ran their mid-cap strategy, ultimately raising $3.5 billion in the primary fund plus another billion in a sister strategy. He left in 2015 to start Ballast, and three years ago launched what he believes is the first small-mid cap actively managed ETF, ticker MGMT.
On this episode, Ragen talks with Brad about Ballast's distinctive downside-first investment approach, their published management evaluation checklist, and why the coverage gap in small and mid-cap stocks creates the best environment for active management.
Buying Within 20-30% of the Worst Case
Ballast's investment process flips the typical pitch on its head. While most managers lead with the upside story, Ragen starts with the downside. The firm's goal is to buy stocks that are trading within 20 to 30 percent of the worst-case scenario they can envision, not just at a discount to some intrinsic value estimate. Once they've quantified the downside, they model the upside by forecasting the base business out three years and generating price targets. Then they marry those two pieces into what they call a "reward-to-risk ratio," requiring asymmetry of at least 3-to-1 before investing.
The downside analysis gets granular depending on the business. For a software company, they might model what happens if new product growth goes to zero and the company is just living on renewal revenue, or they'll note that comparable businesses historically get acquired for 3-5x recurring revenue. For banks, they stress test the loan book category by category against historical recession loss rates. They've even valued shipping companies by looking at what the fleet is worth in the secondary market during stressed periods. As Ragen puts it, "We are the firm that looks both ways when we cross the one-way street."
The Management Evaluation Checklist
Ballast publishes a management evaluation checklist on their website, organized around three pillars: alignment, track record, and fit. On alignment, they dig into how management gets paid (not how much), making sure the compensation metrics align with shareholder outcomes. Ragen gives a concrete example: a retailer whose CEO is compensated on revenue growth. The easiest way to grow retail revenue is to build more stores, but that may deliver terrible returns on incremental capital. If the comp plan rewards revenue but not capital efficiency, the incentives are misaligned.
On track record, they evaluate how well executives have performed in previous roles, not just in the current one. On fit, they assess whether the management team is right for the company's current lifecycle stage. An operationally focused CEO running an early-stage growth company, or a growth-obsessed CEO at a mature business needing cost discipline, would each be a mismatch. Importantly, a management change can move a company from their "no-fly list" to an active opportunity, because the wrong management team is often the biggest source of downside risk in their framework.
The Small-Mid Cap Coverage Gap
Ragen makes a compelling case for why active management adds the most value in the small and mid-cap space. Going back to the 1990s, stocks traded in fractions (16ths and 8ths) and commissions were 5-7 cents per share. Large brokerage firms used commission revenue from their trading desks to pay sell-side analysts. With commissions collapsing to half a penny or less over the past 20 years, the economics of covering smaller companies evaporated. Analyst coverage of small and mid-cap stocks has dropped dramatically, leaving a universe of companies with less institutional attention and more pricing inefficiency.
Position sizing in MGMT is driven by the reward-to-risk ratio: the greater the asymmetry between upside and downside, the larger the position, up to a 3% maximum. They overlay a proprietary risk management model that aggregates revenue and earnings data across all holdings, breaking it down by cyclicality and end-market exposure to maintain a complete picture of portfolio risk concentration. There's no mechanical rebalance schedule. Trading happens based on individual security analysis and when the reward-to-risk ratio shifts meaningfully.
Key Takeaways
- Ballast targets stocks trading within 20-30% of their worst-case scenario, requiring at least 3-to-1 reward-to-risk asymmetry before investing a single dollar.
- Their published management evaluation checklist focuses on how executives get paid (not how much), historical performance across prior roles, and fit for the company's current lifecycle.
- Sell-side analyst coverage of small and mid-cap stocks has dropped dramatically over 20 years as brokerage commissions collapsed from 5-7 cents to half a penny per share.
- Position sizing is driven by reward-to-risk asymmetry up to a 3% maximum, with a proprietary risk model aggregating cyclicality and end-market exposure across all holdings.
- Ragen raised $3.5 billion running the mid-cap strategy at Westwood before launching Ballast, bringing two decades of small-mid cap institutional experience to MGMT.
Listen to the full conversation on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or YouTube.
Full Transcript
3,820 wordsMachine transcribed from Brad Roth's conversation with Ragen Stienke, with speakers identified automatically. Timestamps link to that moment on YouTube. Lightly cleaned, otherwise unedited.
Welcome to Behind the Ticker. I'm Brad Roth, Chief Investment Officer of Thor Financial Technologies and Portfolio Manager of THLV, the Thor Low Volatility ETF. Behind the Ticker uncovers the inner workings of the ETF industry. We will interview portfolio managers and ETF service providers to dive deep into their work lives and their businesses. We will learn the inner workings of their strategies and what drives them as they continue to grow their company. Many of these individuals are entrepreneurs and will have unique and compelling insights to share as much goes on behind the ticker. Please note, nothing in this show is investment advice and it is meant solely for educational and entertainment purposes only.
Welcome to Behind the Ticker. Today we have Regan Steinke. He is the founder of Ballast Asset Management. They have a long history in the space, specifically small and mid-cap SMA products, and have jumped into the ETF world a few years back with their small mid-cap active ETF, MGMT. I think you're going to find this conversation extremely interesting, specifically around their fundamental process, as well as how they view and evaluate management and how they view and evaluate risk. So without further ado, please enjoy this episode with Mr. Regan Steinke. Hey Regan, welcome to the show.
Thanks for having me, Brad. Excited to be here.
So before we get started, can you tell everybody a little bit about your background and how you got
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Into the position that you are today? Sure. So I'll go back a little ways. I think it will be helpful to offer some of how I got my start. So my first job out of college was with Arthur Anderson, and this is the mid-90s, and I was in the business valuation group there. I like to say that's where I learned to value things in the real world as opposed to an academic perspective. It's also where I met one of my business partners, Jason Hanya, and I've known each other for just 30 years now and worked on and off together. Then went to UBS in New York, was a software analyst initially, and then moved into the strategy role. There I worked with my other business partner today,
Tom Fogarty. So I've known him for over 20 years. I was recruited to a company called Westwood. Here in Dallas back in 2004, and that's where J&I started the mid-strategy there at Westwood and raised $3.5 billion, raised another billion or so in a sister strategy, and then I left in 2015 and started Ballast the day after I left. Historically, we have managed primarily institutional capital. Of that $4.5 billion, probably 85% or 90% was institutional. And then three years ago, through a, or I should say as a result of an SEC opinion letter that allowed active managers such as ourselves to have the same efficiency and an ETF strategy as the passive guys, we launched the first, to my knowledge, small or a small and mid-cap actively managed ETF. So that brings it
Through today. Yeah, that's great. And before we jump into that, I always like to ask everybody, what interests or hobbies do you have outside the office when you're not, behind the
Computer screen running money? Sure. Well, I'll tell you, I have four children that are all relatively young. And so I guess one of my interests and hobbies is coaching them and youth sports. I've spent a lot of time doing that. But outside of God, I'm a big outdoorsman. I love running and fishing and I love sharing that hobby with my children. Yeah, no, that's great. I'm actually, you're from,
You're in Dallas. So are you, are you still in Dallas? I am. I am. Yes. Yeah. I might be adopting the Cowboys as my team this year because the Steelers are just awful. So. Well, I will tell
You to be careful. The, the, the Cowboys are certainly good at breaking hearts on with a regular
Occurrence. Yeah. I, yeah, they've, they've had some high expectations and have not done what they probably should have been doing over the last couple of years, but they're my team this year. And yeah, I, I also coach you sports and it's, it's very fulfilling and fun. And I got a couple of kids, so I definitely know where you're coming from and can relate. So let's talk about, ballast asset management. I know you have the ETF, which we're going to talk about. You guys, did you start out running SMAs and then converting SMA assets into the ETF? Is that kind of how you got
Your start? We did start out running SMAs and continue to run SMAs today. The, the way I think about ETF, it's the, the same strategy. It's just a different vehicle for accessing, same strategy. We, we have a single strategy. This is all we do. Done it for going on 20 years now.
And so, yeah. So let's dive into MGMT, which is your small and mid cap ETF. Can you give kind of a high level overview of what the strategy is, is trying to accomplish and what it's designed to do?
Sure. What the highest level, what we are trying to accomplish is to turn alpha generation into a manufacturing process rather than a process that is relying on either my or any of my teammates' ability to be right all the time. And that really starts with a, with a focus on quantifying downside. That's really the cornerstone within our process. And it, I'll take just a minute to, to explain because there's a, I think an important distinction between buying something with, at a discount to its intrinsic value or with a margin of, of safety, sort of the common buzzwords you often hear. And, and, and what we do, we're ultimately trying to buy within 20 to 30% of the worst case scenario that we can envision. And once we quantify that downside, then we'll look at the upside where
We're forecasting a base business out three years, coming up with price targets. And then very simply, we're marrying those two bits of analysis such that we have this downside versus upside, we call it, we invert that and call it a report to risk ratio. And we're looking for asymmetry of at least three to one. And again, our process is reliant on exploiting that asymmetry and being extraordinarily consistent in applying this framework over and over and over again, as opposed to being, using things like conviction or, some of the other common buzzwords that you hear have done around. And the reason for that really is that when you use, you use things like conviction, conviction or probability, you are inherently exposing yourself to many of the behavioral pitfalls that
We as humans are subject to. I'm a huge student of behavioral finance. I won't say that Kahneman and Tversky are required reading to work at Ballast, but it's heavily encouraged. And so we're trying to do everything we can to take as much of, put as many guardrails in as we can to protect ourselves
Against those behavioral mistakes. Yeah, no, it's definitely important. I'm a big believer in behavioral finance and trying to avoid those pitfalls. everything we do is systematic as well. But before we dive into kind of like the investment process, I want to know, I want to get your take on why that small and mid-cap space offers such a unique opportunity, specifically for finding kind of alpha generating companies and higher growth. What is it about that space that you find attractive? And what is it about those companies or maybe the management team specifically that allows
You to drive and generate that alpha? Sure. There's a couple of things. One that I don't often hear talked about, but it's actually become worse, I guess, better for active managers over the last 20 years. And I'll take you back to the 90s when these stocks traded on fractions, 16th and 8th, whatever point, we moved into the early odds and we went to decimalization. And initially, those commissions were five or seven cents. commissions are down to a penny or half a penny a share in a lot of instances these days. And the reality is that many of the large brokerage firms that use commissions from their trading desks to pay sell-side analysts to cover these stocks just don't cover these because they just, they don't trade enough, generate enough dollars to pay
Their analysts. And we've seen over the last 20 years a remarkable drop in coverage for many of the businesses we own. And while that, makes it a little more difficult to get up to speed, it rewards folks that are willing to roll up their sleeves and to do the work themselves.
So let's talk about kind of the investment selection. I know you talked about, the risk and reward ratio. are you looking at that through like a fundamental screening process? Like how are you drilling down and finding opportunities?
Sure. So we really starts with eliminating things that we just know we're not interested in. We have valuation frameworks that we're not willing to pay more than, let's call it, 12 or 13 times EBITDA for a business. We want our businesses to have operational leverage and generate returns through financial leverage. So we're extraordinarily focused on sheets. We don't mix, again, cyclicals with financial leverage. We are exceedingly focused on management teams that are capable of deploying capital at very high attractive rates of return and who get paid based on their success or lack thereof and doing that. So that's really, kind of step one for us. Super focused on free cash flow. Having worked again at Arthur Anderson early in my career, I can tell you that companies are able to manufacture earnings through accounting
Gimmickry. You can distort value. The one thing you can't distort is cash going into and out of a bank account. So those are really sort of the primary metrics that we are focused on early on, as we get interested in working on an email.
So you briefly touched on, looking at management. What specific qualities are you trying to identify that makes a great management team that you're comfortable with and taking an investment in their company?
Right. Hold on. Just for your listeners, I'll tell you, we actually wrote a white paper on this. It's on our website if you want to get deeper, but we've got, kind of a management checklist and it goes into a couple of things. First and foremost, we want to make sure that management is aligned with our customers. And we do that by really digging into how they get paid. And notice I said how, not how much. We want to make sure that the metrics that are used to determine what they get paid are aligned with when they win our customers. So just as a quick example, if you are a retailer, a CEO of a retail company, and you get paid based on revenue growth, the easiest way to grow revenue as a retailer is to just build more stores. Well,
That may or may not be the right answer for our investors. incremental capital being deployed could be done at, dramatically lower rates of return. So the focus might should be just focusing on your existing. So that's a big component of it. The other thing is evaluating throughout the management's careers, how well they have done at Deploying Capital, either previous jobs or previous divisions in the same company. And then the third piece is making sure that the management team that is there is the right fit for that company at that time, right? So having a manager that is exceedingly focused on growth for a more mature business that really needs someone that is more operationally focused might not be a great match. And having someone that is purely operationally
Focused for a business that's a little earlier in its life cycle, that might not be a great match. So we're really, again, focused on trying to make sure that we've got the right team for the right company at the right time and that they have a history and aptitude to execute.
So that's interesting. So you could be excited about a company's financial metrics, but maybe not excited about the management team. And if there's a shakeup or a change in management, would that take something off of kind of a no-fly list and put it on a fly list for you?
Yes, absolutely. And it's happened a number of times in the past where we have found a business that we are interested in, but where there is a misalignment of interest with the management team. And oftentimes that'll be either the wrong CEO in place or the wrong compensation structure. And when we'll see that change, you bring in a new CEO and change just as a friend's compensation structure being focused on getting revenue or earnings targets. And then all of a sudden, there's a return component, whether it's return on events account or return on equity, et cetera. And that will be a catalyst for us to reevaluate, perhaps take a position of that.
Yeah, that's interesting. So you talk about risk management being paramount. How are you quantifying what the downside risk is? Through a fundamental analysis and obviously looking at management, how are you identifying and quantifying the risk of the downside? Because it's a lot easier to be optimistic, I think, in finding what the growth opportunity is. But sometimes the other side of the equation is a little bit more difficult. Can you talk about that process a little bit?
Sure. And this really goes back to Jay and I's day at Arthur Anderson, or days at Arthur Anderson at the business evaluation group. We look at it in a number of different ways, and it will change somewhat depending on the business that you're looking at. So let's take a software company as a friend. Those business models have changed somewhat over the last decade. But if you think about a software company, we'll look at the component of recurring revenue of that business and just say, okay, let's say their new product growth goes to effectively zero, and we've got a renewal rate on this recurring revenue. What does that look like if we just sort of liquidate that into the future? Or we've got hundreds of examples that those types of
Software businesses tend to get bought for somewhere between three and five times they're making that subscription. So that's an example. We'll look at a bank where we will take their loan book and do a burn down category by category. So we'll look at the mortgage side of the business or the commercial real estate side of the business, look at historical periods of recession, and what values and losses went to during those times of stress. We do LBO analysis. We will do some of the parts analysis. We've literally looked at shipping companies where we said, what's their fleet worth in the secondary market during times of stress? What's it worth at the front steel? So really hitting on these from a number of different angles. And oftentimes,
The reality is that to your point, the upside may look extraordinarily attractive, but from our perspective, the downside is just too great, or we can't quantify it. And therefore,
We won't invest. Yeah, it's an extremely interesting process and completely well thought out in design. I talked to a lot of ETF managers and you guys are definitely taking the extra step of really looking into management and looking to see what the downside risks are. I'm curious, when you start to identify, you run your whole process, you find your investment selection. How are you then compiling the portfolio in terms of position sizing? It's not equal weight, is it? Or you're putting, you're kind of moving chips around and overweighting some things and maybe
Underweighting some others? Yeah, you're right. It's not equal weight. And so we use all else equal, that reward to risk ratio that I mentioned. We use that in order to size positions. So very simply, the greater the asymmetry versus downside, the larger the position size to imagine a 3% purchase. So the way to think about this is that, over time, as a stock goes up and the reward to risk ratio falls, we'll use that to cut back positions. And then we overlay, I said all else equal, but we overlay on top of that, we have a proprietary risk management model that we employ to help guide us in putting those different positions together. And we say an analyst's job is to paint perfect stroke
On a piece of canvas, brush stroke on a piece of canvas. As a portfolio manager, it's our job to step back and make sure that we have a picture that makes sense. So our risk model is fundamentally driven. We look at all of the revenue and earnings associated with all of our businesses and break those down based on fundamental factors, things like cyclicality, end markets, et cetera. And then we aggregate that data back up such that we have a holistic view of risk. So it's a combination of overlaying that on top of that reward to risk ratio.
So when, does MGMT have a, I know it's an active ETF, but does it have a set rebalance schedule when you're kind of rerunning screens and reposition sizing, or are you guys doing everything on the fly over there and things could change day to day? Yeah. There is no set rebalance schedule. The
Rebalancing occurs purely when we're either buying or selling positions on a position by position basis.
So when you guys are out there talking to RIAs or advisors or institutions, and they have kind of a model portfolio framework already existing in the firm, where are you positioning MGMT as a, as a holding to kind of encompass or fit in that over, uh, overall model portfolio?
Sure. So it's really two things, either a, as, um, a replacement to, uh, passive ETFs. Uh, um, and a lot of, uh, many of the, uh, the ETFs out there, uh, within that are competitors for us are either or quantitative or just pure, pure passive. And, uh, we are, are very fundamental and I think, uh, certainly in times like this, where, uh, there's a lot of, uh, uncertainty that, uh, that's where real value comes into play. Uh, and, and, the other is just, uh, purely in, in allocations. Uh, we've seen over the last 10 years, large cap growth, it's, uh, obviously dramatically outperformed, uh, small cap value. And our perspective is that the, uh, the next 10 years is unlikely to look like the last 10 and, uh, that, that one should, uh,
Should have an application to a small cap value. Yeah, no, I, I would agree with that. And
Having experience in both the SMA world and the ETF world now, can you talk about just how you see the sales process differently for maybe going out and trying to, uh, have an advisor utilize your SMA versus, having a publicly traded process or a publicly traded product, um, and getting kind of ETF allocations is, is the sale process, the sales process the same? Is it different? can you talk about distribution a little bit?
Sure. It's, uh, I would say it's very different, uh, within the SMA world, particularly on the institutional side that we had historically focused on, that is very consultant. So, the process is to, uh, get approved by the, the major consultants, uh, the Cowans and Russells and any of these of the world. And, uh, that's a process in and of itself, uh, that can take, uh, years, many instances, but, uh, once you're approved there, then, then you're able to get included in searches. Anytime there's a movement, a public plan or corporate plan needs to replace or a manager, you're able to be included in those searches. That's very different. What we've learned within, um, the ETF space
And much more driven by, the, uh, wealth advisors, family office, et cetera. Uh, it's just much more hand to hand and you've, uh, there's a process of building your brand and, uh, getting your name out there, but, uh, also just a, uh, a huge effort, uh, through, through our partners at SkyPoint that, um, that are just calling on, uh, advisors every day, uh, just trying to get them up to speed on the story. And, uh, it requires a lot more content, much shorter content. Our letters for, uh, the ETF tend to be much shorter, much more often. And, uh, it's just, it feels like it's much more of a volume. Yeah, no, I, I couldn't agree more.
It seems like running an ETF these days, you've, you've got to be front and center almost every day, um, and, and getting that brand recognition, but, Reagan, I really, really appreciate your time. Um, very, very interesting product that I think is well thought out. I think deserves a spot, um, in that model portfolio process, as you said, just especially with kind of the environment we may be entering in here over the next, uh, next few years and next decade. But before I let you go, where can people learn more about ballast? Where can they learn more about the ETF and get all
The information on your firm? Sure. So you can learn more about the ETF at MGMTETF.com. And you can learn more about the ETF at B-A-L-L-A-S-T-A-M.com. And we put, uh, all of the, uh, material that we write and, uh, articles on, uh, both the firm and the fund are on either of those two, uh, websites. So I would, uh, would encourage you to go there first. Um, very much appreciate you having us, uh, on the call. And I will tell you where I've always told people when they ask me to sum up in a single sentence, I would tell you that we're the firm that looks both ways when we cross a one way street.
That's perfect. Well, Reagan, again, thank you so much for your time. I appreciate all the information and hope to have the opportunity to meet you in the future and learn more about you and the firm. Absolutely. Thank you, Brad. Thank you.
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