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Behind the Ticker

UT CATT Panel

AI in Finance: What's Real and What's Hype

·63 min

This is a special edition episode recorded live at the UT CATT 2024 Global Analytics Conference on AI in Finance. Brad moderates a panel with three guests: Tal Schwartz, CEO and founder of AI Funds; Suhir Holla, CEO and founder of MyStockDNA; and Kyle Wiggs, CEO and founder of UX Wealth Partners (the show's sponsor). All four panelists have direct experience building and deploying AI in the investment management space, and Brad notes they could have easily gone five or six hours.

What AI Actually Does in Portfolio Management

The panel moved quickly past the buzzword stage into specifics. Tal Schwartz at AI Funds uses machine learning to process alternative data sets and generate investment signals. He explained that the value proposition isn't replacing human analysts but processing data volumes that no human team could handle: structured and unstructured data, satellite imagery, transaction data, social sentiment, all feeding into models that identify patterns for portfolio construction.

Suhir Holla approaches it from the investor's side with MyStockDNA. His platform uses AI to analyze a portfolio's actual underlying characteristics, essentially the DNA of your holdings. Most investors have no idea how much overlap exists in their portfolios, or how correlated their supposedly diversified positions really are. MyStockDNA maps those hidden relationships. Suhir described situations where an investor thinks they're diversified across ten funds but is actually concentrated in the same handful of risk factors.

Kyle Wiggs is building AI directly into UX Wealth Partners' TAMP infrastructure. The firm offers an AI-driven model marketplace where advisors can access quantitative strategies that were previously the domain of institutional investors. A solo RIA can now implement strategies with the same sophistication as a billion-dollar allocator. Kyle emphasized that the technology is mature enough to be production-grade, not experimental.

The Emotional Risk Frontier

The most compelling concept from the discussion came from Suhir: the "emotional risk frontier." Traditional portfolio theory builds efficient frontiers based on risk and return metrics. But for real investors, the binding constraint isn't the Sharpe ratio or standard deviation. It's the point at which they panic and blow up their own portfolio.

Suhir posed the question directly: can AI customize portfolios to individual emotional risk tolerances? If Brad panics at a 20% drawdown but another investor panics at 10%, their portfolios should be built differently, not just in terms of expected volatility but in terms of the probability of hitting each person's specific emotional breaking point. The panel agreed this could be where AI makes the single biggest impact on real-world investment outcomes. Not by generating alpha, but by preventing the behavioral destruction of wealth that happens when investors sell at the bottom. In other words, the best portfolio is one your client will actually stick with.

Beyond Markowitz: Regime-Adaptive Models

The panel directly challenged the traditional Markowitz efficient frontier framework that has dominated portfolio theory for decades. The core problem: correlations between asset classes aren't stable. They change based on economic regimes, and they spike during crises, which is exactly when diversification matters most. The 60/40 portfolio, long treated as gospel, showed its limitations in 2022 when stocks and bonds fell together. AI systems that adapt to changing correlation structures offer a meaningful upgrade over static models that assume fixed relationships between asset classes.

The discussion also covered personalization at scale. Instead of offering three to five model portfolios based on a generic risk questionnaire, AI could enable advisors to construct thousands of individualized portfolios that adapt in real time to each client's specific circumstances and risk tolerances. Kyle noted that UX Wealth Partners is building toward this vision, using machine learning to create dynamically customized solutions for each advisor's client base. Tal added that the challenge isn't the AI itself but the data infrastructure and regulatory framework needed to support it at production scale. The models work today. The plumbing needs to catch up.

Professor Kumar, who was also present at the conference, added academic grounding to the panel's observations. The discussion touched on how the entire field of portfolio theory needs updating to account for the computational power now available. Mean-variance optimization was revolutionary in the 1950s when calculations were done by hand. Today, machine learning can evaluate portfolio combinations numbering more than grains of sand on Earth, optimizing for far more sophisticated measures of risk and return than the simple Sharpe ratio. The panelists agreed that the theoretical frameworks taught in finance programs are decades behind what practitioners can now implement.

Key Takeaways

  • AI Funds processes alternative data (satellite imagery, transactions, social data) through machine learning to generate investment signals that no human team could produce manually at scale.
  • MyStockDNA reveals the hidden overlap and correlation in portfolios that investors don't realize they have, mapping the actual "DNA" beneath the ticker symbols.
  • The "emotional risk frontier" concept proposes building portfolios to individual behavioral breaking points, not just financial risk metrics. The best portfolio is one your client actually sticks with.
  • UX Wealth Partners is building AI-driven model marketplaces that give solo RIAs access to institutional-grade quantitative strategies through their TAMP platform.
  • The panel challenged the static Markowitz framework and 60/40 default, arguing AI-driven regime-adaptive models better handle the reality that correlations change and spike during crises.

Listen to the full conversation on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or YouTube.

Full Transcript

11,608 words

Machine transcribed from Brad Roth's conversation with UT CATT Panel, with speakers identified automatically. Timestamps link to that moment on YouTube. Lightly cleaned, otherwise unedited.

0:00
Brad Roth

Behind the Ticker is brought to you by UX Wealth Partners. If you're a TAMP user and you're sick and tired of the legacy technology they are run on and you want more customization and flexibility, as well as an AI-driven model marketplace, UX Wealth Partners is your destination. On top of that, they have institutional trading. So if you are an ETF issuer or an SMA provider looking for outsourced institutional trading, UX Wealth can also be your destination. So check out uxwp.com to find out all the ways UX Wealth Partners can help grow and make your practice more efficient.

0:55

Welcome to Behind the Ticker. It is a special edition episode. As we do not do episodes in December, it gets too hard with people traveling. They're at holiday parties, and getting this thing out every single week during this time of year is almost impossible. So this will be the only episode for December, and it is a great episode for December. It's a little bit of a longer listen. It was recorded at the UT Cat 2024 Global Analytics Conference on AI in Finance, and I had the pleasure of moderating the panel with three guests. We're going to hear from all three today.

1:37

You got Tal Schwartz, who is the CEO and founder of AI Funds. You have Sudhir Hullah, who is the CEO and founder of MyStockDNA. And you have Kyle Wiggs, who is the CEO and founder of UX Wealth Partners, who is the sponsor of this show. So we're going to have really, if you count myself, four people who have a significant amount of experience in the AI space, whether that's delivering models or actually implementing these into client accounts and delivering them to advisors. So this is a really great discussion. We could have talked for five or six hours, but you get an hour here. So without further ado, please enjoy this special edition episode of Behind the Ticker.

2:21
UT CATT Panel

Hi, everyone. Thanks for joining us again. Next, we have an exciting panel on the future of smart investment strategies and how AI is going to play a central role in this future. Let's invite our moderator, Brad Roth. Brad is a founding principal and chief investment officer at Thor Financial Technologies, which launched THLV, a low volatility ETF in September 2022. With over a decade of experience in trading operations and financial advisory, Brad has extensive expertise in investment strategies and fund management. Previously, he was a managing partner at Sardonyx Capital, managing a quantitative securities fund.

Read the full transcript (127 more sections)
3:05

Brad also hosts the Behind the Ticker podcast, featuring interviews with ETF issuers and service providers. He holds a bachelor's with honors from Duquesne University and completed his coursework at NYU for certified financial planner designation. Additionally, he holds Series 66 and Series 3 licenses. Brad, welcome.

3:30
Brad Roth

Well, thank you. And that sure was a lot there. I don't know if it's all that was needed, but hello, everybody. And thank you to coming to our discussion today. Let me turn my video on along with everybody else. we're here to talk about the future of AI investing and how we are delivering those solutions to clients. So, look, we've all known we've been using computers to make investment decisions for a very long time. But it seems like that trajectory has really started to pick up here over the last handful of years, and it's only getting more exciting. But today I have on three really special people with me. I consider all three of them friends. I have Kyle Wiggs from UX Wealth.

4:11

I have Sudhir Hala from My Stock DNA and Tal Swartz from AI Funds. So, gentlemen, thank you very much for being here today. And why don't we go down the line, maybe starting with Kyle, give a bit about your background and the company that you're here and the company that, you're working for. Yeah. Thanks, Brad. Thank you, Kumar. It's good to be with everybody. So, my name is Kyle Wiggs. I am the co-founder and CEO at a company called UX Wealth Partners. Just a brief bit of background, been almost 20 years in the wealth management industry, spending a lot of time with financial advisors who work with the community, taking their feedback, and ultimately running, broker-dealer platforms from technology to investments to sales and distribution.

4:55

And it was along that journey that I realized our industry was not keeping up with other industries in terms of bringing things like artificial intelligence to the clients that we ultimately serve. And so, we launched UX Wealth Partners as really a dedicated platform, bringing trading, billing, reporting, to be able to support and service some of the strategies that you're going to hear about today. Because a lot of the legacy technology providers that exist just really don't have the capability to deliver some of the modern strategies that you're going to hear about today. Thanks, Kyle. Maybe we can go over to Sudhir. Hi, everyone.

5:32
UT CATT Panel

My name is Sudhir Hola. I do need to get a better camera. These guys are looking better than me. But I am the founder and CEO of MyStockDNA.

5:41
Brad Roth

Before founding MyStockDNA, I was a managing director with Accenture.

5:44
UT CATT Panel

And my career has essentially spanned the crossroads of technology, data science, artificial intelligence, and now finance. As MyStockDNA, we were formed on a basic, simple but elegant premise of winning by not losing. And what does that mean? if I were to translate that in the financial market terms, what that means is that you manage risk so effectively that even a blindfolded chimp picking stocks can outperform the S&P 500. Now, I understand this might sound counterintuitive to many who believe that reducing risk may mean also lower returns. But that's what we leveraged AI for, to be able to manage risk so effectively that as a byproduct, you get higher returns. And look forward to talking about that later in the session.

6:27
Brad Roth

Thank you, Sudhir. Tal?

6:30
UT CATT Panel

Thank you, everyone. It's a pleasure to be here. A brief background of myself. I, let's see, got a PhD in finance from Cornell, taught as a finance professor at a few different universities at DePaul and a few others. I was a quantitative researcher at a few different hedge funds, including Citadel, and I had my own startup. And then in 2018, was deciding what I want to do next and realized it was a big opportunity with AI and finance, which was my love. So I decided to start AI funds with the idea, the vision at least, is that AI really is destined to manage most of the assets that are investable.

7:13

And the reason I believe that is because, and this is before ChatGPT and everything else, is because I saw what AI is able to do with narrow AI in many, many different domains. And the fact that it was able to exceed human ability in games and other areas. So the idea was, why can't it not do that also in finance? So that's the reason we started AI funds with the idea that this is really the biggest trend that's going to happen over the next few decades. And it's an opportunity that we all need to take advantage of. Great.

7:45
Brad Roth

Well, hey, I think before we get into, I really want to open this up as a discussion session. But I think before we do that, I think let's kind of answer the overarching question, which is, I'd like to get each one of your perspective on how you really see AI redefining the investment landscape. And really, that's now and also in the future, because, again, it's happening fast. There's a lot of changes going on. So maybe let's just take that same order and start with Kyle and maybe give your give your perspective on, how AI is redefining the landscape. So as I think about it through the lens of the financial advisor community, I guess, Brad, I would break it down into three categories.

8:25

What I see somewhat working effectively today. The second part would be where I think we're making a bit of a mistake as an industry. And I think to Tal's comments, what's the opportunity? Where are we missing it today? And what does that future look like? I think in terms of where we sit today, what's my observation of what's effective is you think about like a client resource management system. Presumably most people, in today's session are familiar with like a sales force. We're seeing the utilization of artificial intelligence to gather and organize data and information that I think is effective. I think it can always get better in terms of how these various technologies interact and potentially integrate with one another.

9:10

But that, to me, is effective. You think about things like gathering large volumes of data and creating real-time insights. you're walking into a client meeting. Let's say you're preparing for tomorrow and you've got an overwhelming, volume of data and information. And I think going through that, organizing and pulling out real-time insights certainly works and is effective today. And then the last one is, as Tal talked about, things like chat GPT. We're starting to see some of the advisor community really, I think, improve their communication capabilities. And so I think that is working well today. It can always obviously get better. One of the huge mistakes that we are observing is none of us like to get into a service call where we get into an AI loop.

9:53

That has created a lot of frustration. There are some firms that are in the industry today that are scoring really poorly in terms of customer service. And I think there is still that human component that's really important, that some of the ways AI is being utilized today is ineffective. What's the opportunity and where are we headed? It's the investment piece. And we're going to talk a lot about that today. But when I travel the country and I sit down with your traditional chief investment officer that's running a multibillion-dollar firm and they have an investment committee, they are still using old ways to try to solve new problems. They're sitting down, they're pouring through information and data, and they're using humans to make investment decisions.

10:32
UT CATT Panel

And ultimately, when you really unpack that and you have the conversation with the CIO or the investment committee,

10:38
Brad Roth

They are viewing these tools that you're going to hear about today as a threat to their job, as opposed to thinking about man versus machine. It's really the idea of man and machine. How do we bring AI within the investment decision-making realm to the client, the advisor, ultimately their customer, to make better decisions long-term? That's where the opportunity lies, and that's where I think the miss is today. Yeah, no, that's great, Kyle. And I think your perspective from more of a TAMP and a software is helpful. And sometimes we're only thinking about the investment side rather than how it can help from a service side. And so Sudhir and Tal, I think you're going to be able to talk on that at length today.

11:19

So Sudhir, why don't you go first? How do you see AI redefining the investment landscape and kind of where are we going in the future?

11:26
UT CATT Panel

I agree with everything that Kyle said. But seriously, he made some very valid points, and I think we would all agree with them. I think basically with each wave of innovation that you see, whether it's with calculators, spreadsheets, internet, computers, high-frequency trading, you're essentially going to see, at least on finance, I see the impact on three different dimensions. One is the data and the analytics front. The second is efficiency. And the third is, which I don't think gets talked about often, is the human emotion part of it. Now, the data part of it is pretty straightforward, right? So democratizing access to large volumes of data and then use that decision to enable decision-making at higher scale and speed than was done before.

12:07

And then you use that to drive decision-making. Efficiency, this is, again, straightforward, right? So, just like computers help you be more efficient, AI is going to help you be even more efficient. You'll replace the capabilities of an entry-level analyst. And that's where we see a lot of the focus of AI, especially right now in finance, in terms of improving the efficiency. The third aspect, which is managing emotions. Now, like it or not, for most of the retail investors, which is what our community deals with, the financial advisors, financial markets are a lot about emotions. It's about the emotion of fear and greed, right? So fear when the market is going down, what the hell is happening, what's going to happen to my profile, portfolio, and so on and so forth.

12:46

And greed when somebody else is making money or your neighbor is making money, and then you have the case of envy.

12:52
Brad Roth

Like everybody in Bitcoin today, right? Right. That's right.

12:55
UT CATT Panel

And then, before the elections, it was like, what will happen to the market? Market will crash. And now it's like, why are you not in the market? So there's a lot of emotion which guides that decision-making in the financial markets. And I think artificial intelligence has a potential to significantly reduce the impact of emotions on decision-making and be able to do that fast, right? So now, as MyStockDNA, we built our AI. It's called Darwin. And we built that on one guiding principle, which is to win by not losing. Now, if you imagine the stock market like a hill that you're running on, right? You run up the hill, you run down the hill, you run up the hill, run down the hill. What that essentially means for us is that if you avoid going down the hill, you don't have to spend as much of an effort digging your way out of the hill.

13:37

So that's equivalent of managing risk. Now, for us, within MyStockDNA, what we are leveraging AI for is primarily the first dimension, which is taking into account large volumes of data to account for whether we should, whether it's a small ditch or a big ditch and how should we avoid the ditch. And the second is being able to unemotionally take that decision. So the emotion part of it is a significant component in what we have built. Great.

14:04
Brad Roth

Tal, I'll pose the same question to you for the third time. AI, how do you see it redefining the landscape now and in the future?

14:12
UT CATT Panel

Okay. So when I look at the landscape today, really, when you look at it from a perspective of the strategies that investors have available to them, you have, on the one hand, passive strategies, where essentially you mimic an index, usually a capitalization-weighted index. And then you have the active strategies, which today are mostly human-run active strategies, meaning there's a portfolio manager making decisions about when to come in and out of the market and how much risk exposure to take and what assets to invest in. Now, if you look statistically at the active strategies, you can see that they statistically underperformed the benchmark.

14:53

If you look at the large cap investors, human investors, something like 85% of them underperform the S&P 500. And this is published data by S&P Standard Course. So we know that humans tend to underperform the benchmark. Okay. And the reason has to do, like Sudhir said, has a lot to do with emotions. Okay. Because unfortunately, we were not designed to play the stock market. We're designed to, the revolution to survive in the savannah. And when we see a lion, we know we need to run away. So when the market starts falling, guess what? We want to run away. And that ends up hurting our performance as human managers.

15:35

And as Sudhir mentioned, AI does not have emotions. So it's actually able to take advantage of those situations and actually generate alpha during those situations. So I think the biggest opportunity for AI today is really on the active side, because there there's already underperformance and people are still, there's more active investing than passive. Although passive has grown a lot over the past few years. But there's a huge opportunity there. Because AI can outperform humans, potentially outperform human managers. And I think that's really the direction the market is going to go first. Simply because AI, for a bunch of reasons. One, it can process a lot more data than humans can. It makes unemotional decisions.

16:17

And it's able to do a better job predicting both potential return and potential risk. And as a result, you're able to build smarter portfolios that will do better both in up markets and down markets. So that's a high level view of where things are going, at least in my view. And we can dive deeper into how specifically we think we can help make that happen.

16:44
Brad Roth

Well, you led me perfectly into our discussion segment. We're going to do four segments. The first is the role of AI in portfolio management. So Tal, I'll come back to you. what does an AI portfolio look like in actual practice? It's one thing to build a portfolio. It's one thing to have a bunch of data. It's another thing to actually implement them and to allow an investor to actually act on these changes of what AI wants to do. So, what does it look like in practice? And can you talk about your particular respective approach when it comes to portfolio management? Okay.

17:20
UT CATT Panel

Thank you, Brad. So basically, the AI we built is called Bela. Bela stands for Bayesian AI Learning Algorithm. And Bela really tries to do two roles that typically you see inside investment houses. The first role is that of a macro strategist. And the second role is a portfolio manager. So the macro strategist aspect is trying to figure out what type of environment are we in? Is this a bull market? Are we in a bear market? Okay. And you see a lot of famous macro strategies from famous investment houses making predictions about whether we're in a bull market or bear market. And sometimes they get it right and sometimes they get it wrong. But usually what they're doing is they're looking at the current economy and they're saying interest rates are higher, inflation is higher, stock markets doing this, and so on.

18:07

There's a bunch of these indicators. They go back through time and they find what is the most similar time to today. And based on that, they make a prediction about what's going to happen now. So they usually take one or two or three data points from the past and try to do that by using visual analysis or something of that nature. And what we've done with Bela is actually try to do that on a systematic basis so that we don't just take one or two times. We take every similar time over the last 50 years. So in a sense, you're getting a distribution. Now, if you take the most similar fingerprint of the macro economy today and you match it to the past, you end up figuring out that, the match is not just 1979.

18:48

It's also 1973 and 1968 and so on. So there's a lot of times in the past. And sometimes the market went up and sometimes it went down. So you get a distribution and then you can make a prediction from that. So the macro side can actually tell you over the next few weeks, and that's the horizon that we're making a prediction. Over the next few weeks, one to four weeks usually, is the market more likely to go higher or go lower? Okay. Once you know that, once the prediction is made, and this is a statistical prediction, it's not 100% right, but it's trying to make a prediction about bigger drawdowns. So drawdowns of 5% or more. So, if it's a small blip down, that happens all the time.

19:26

It's the bigger ones you're trying to avoid, right? So it's making a prediction on that. And then the next stage is now we have a portfolio optimizer that figures, given what we know where the market is going, then what is the right portfolio? Okay. What is the right mix of assets, given the client's risk level? So we match it to different risk levels. And then we have a particular portfolio that's designed for that. Okay. So it's designed with the right mix of assets. And, we have the traditional 60-40 portfolio for, an investor that may be in the middle range of risk aversion. Well, you tell the AI, well, given that level of volatility, what is the right mix?

20:06

And sometimes it does have 40% in bonds, but many times it doesn't. It has other assets that offset the correlations and reduce risk. And we can talk more about what is risk really for investors. It's really the downside risk. So you have to also optimize for that in a smarter way. So there's a lot of things we can do as, the AI can do to help us build portfolios that are smarter. So you have those two parts that Baylor does, the macro strategies, the portfolio manager. And at the end, you get a better overall portfolio performance out of sample, not just in backtesting, but also in real-time performance.

20:41
Brad Roth

So, Tal, with all of that being said, right, you get an output. So how then does that output get put into practice, right? Meaning, how often are your portfolios changing their investment outlook? And how often are you then delivering that to the end client?

20:56
UT CATT Panel

Okay. So typically, we run... So Baylor adjusts its posture every week. So every week, it's looking ahead one to four weeks into the future. Usually, the posture stays the same. It's, as the market's usually risk on. Okay. So it stays risk on. And it's been risk on for many weeks. Once in a while, you get a risk off event where you see, okay, there's a risk here. For example, this year, we had a risk off event on April 1st. Baylor went risk off. It said this is a bearish environment. It went risk off for just three weeks and then went risk on, back on. And during that period, the market was down a little bit over 5%.

21:36

So we're able to avoid that and then come back in and capture the upside. So that was this year. Every year is different. I can give you an example. In 2022, it went risk off many, many more times. It was a downward year and Baylor was, I think, out of the market much more than was in the market. Okay. So it really depends on the year and the level of volatility and, and the signals that it's seeing in the different indicators that it's looking at. But typically, it's every week. And in general, there's a rebalance once every four weeks because the patterns in the underlying assets have changed. And it's typically an opportunity to improve the portfolio performance by rebalancing every four weeks.

22:15

So these are active strategies. They don't necessarily trade every week, but they trade about once a month typically. And then they go usually risk off twice a year on average, I would say, and an average year. But it changes year to year. This year was only once so far, and we've been bullish the entire year. Great.

22:32
Brad Roth

So, there's not always just one size fits all in terms of approaches here. So, Sudhir, Darwin takes a slightly different approach to how you're using AI. So, please, why don't you let all of us know a little bit inside the back end of what you're doing over there with MyStuckDNA.

22:50
UT CATT Panel

Yeah, sure. it's interesting. Tal mentioned Bela. So I built Bela's boyfriend, Darwin. Darwin has a slightly different way of looking at the market. Slightly differently. A lot of the concepts are very similar. The way I would describe it is, I use this analogy often, right? So think of it as basically, let's say, you're driving from Austin to Dallas, and you have a choice of multiple lanes to pick to get to your destination. You have to take into account the weather conditions. You have to select the right vehicles. You have to be able to change lanes at the right moment, and so on and so forth. Now, imagine your portfolio to be somewhat similar, where instead of lanes, you have different asset classes and stocks.

23:32

And instead of the weather conditions, you have market conditions to maneuver. But the challenge remains the same. You need to get to your destination not just fast, but also safe. So Darwin, as an AI, does something similar. What it does is it takes into account all of these market conditions, those different lanes that you're navigating in, and increases and tries to maximize the return to risk, which means you want you to get to your destination faster, but also safer. Now, if it's possible in the technology world to kind of take the leap of faith of self-driving cars, then the same analogy holds true for your portfolio, if you construct it similar to a construct of a video game.

24:17

And that's what AI does. For us, it navigates the different asset classes and lanes and then tries to get to its destination and outperform the index in the process of doing so.

24:30
Brad Roth

It's great. I think back to Kyle's earlier point with man and machine. I trust myself driving car about 90% of the time. But every once in a while, I got to hit the brake and turn it off. But thanks for that, both of you. So look, we've got very complex strategies that are spitting out weekly signals. Kyle sits on the other end where UX Partners has to enable an actual end client to implement these signals, trade these signals. It seems easy on the surface, but actually, it's quite difficult. So Kyle, with the 20-some thousand accounts that you have over at UX that are taking in these signals on a weekly basis, sometimes a daily basis, what needs to be implemented in order to handle strategies like these?

25:15

Yeah. So one of the great joys, but also challenges, is taking the complexity of what Tal and Sudhir and others have built. And how do you get that into the actual client account? Because to get from there to there is actually a really complex problem to try to solve. Maybe an analogy for the group to think about. There are some brilliant architects in the world, and sometimes they design things, but then the general contractor has the task or the role of building it. And sometimes the concept as an architect is wonderful, but it's not always something that can be implemented. And I think trying to eliminate as many of those sort of friction or pain points as possible is what UX is solving for in the marketplace.

26:02

How do we get what these guys just described as closely as humanly possible into the end client account?

26:09
UT CATT Panel

And then you start to ask questions around how do you do it at scale?

26:12
Brad Roth

Think about all the custodians that are available. I won't name them all, but you've got the Schwabs and the Fidelities of the world, the Apex, the Axos. The list is very long.

26:22
UT CATT Panel

They all have their own parameters.

26:24
Brad Roth

And so we have to think about how can we deliver, how can we grab all the data, grab the strategy, and then execute that. Sometimes we might get a strategy that says, listen, we've got to execute this at five minutes to close across six custodians and 15,000 accounts. We have to think about how to implement that.

26:41
UT CATT Panel

Things that oftentimes, Brad, get overlooked. We have to think about things like model minimums.

26:47
Brad Roth

Some of these strategies have, in some cases, $100,000 minimum so that we can fill the orders. Because if you take a custodian like Charles Schwab, they don't allow for fractional shares.

26:58
UT CATT Panel

So you have to buy a whole share of everything in the model.

27:01
Brad Roth

Whereas you could go to other custodians. Maybe it's a folio where you do allow for fractional shares. So we have different minimums that we have to adhere to. You think about things like liquidity constraints. Some of these ETFs have very high minimums just to access the ETF itself, let alone the strategy. And then you start thinking about things that maybe not a lot of folks would think about.

27:25
UT CATT Panel

I have a signal that comes in.

27:27
Brad Roth

Perhaps it's individual equities. Maybe it's a basket of ETFs. What's the trade risk of trading these, particularly when we're dealing with a market environment where the markets are really volatile? And how do we do that? How do we rebalance these accounts and minimize to the best possible ability the trade risk associated with that? Because if you make a mistake, some of these mistakes I've seen, not done intentionally, but there could be a trader that could happen that could cost several hundred thousand dollars.

27:55
UT CATT Panel

And then you start thinking about maybe, Brad, the last two options or two things to consider, which would be, what are the tax considerations?

28:03
Brad Roth

I know you at Boer have built out some ETFs and there's other discussions of how do we take a strategy in an ETF structure and minimize some of the tax implications? Or how do we use AI as an overlay to manage tax lots and locate those tax positions in a way that is most tax efficient to the specific client? And then the last one would just be speed and quality of execution. Trust me when I tell you, your counterparty is not there to do you any favors when you're executing these securities. And so knowing exactly who you're trading with, how quickly you can execute across various custodians and the quality of that execution, all of those, I think, broader factors in delivering the best experience for the client to try to implement the strategies that these guys are running.

28:50

Great. So let's move on to segment two. And I'm going to open the floor up to all three of you. So anybody can jump in here and I'd like to keep this a little bit more conversational, which would be, look, we just learned how AI can create really sophisticated strategies. we touched on some of the main benefits, but really, how is AI solving some of the many pain points for investors that traditional investment paradigms just can't solve for? Anybody is welcome to take that one first. I can jump in.

29:20
UT CATT Panel

So putting on my professor of finance hat, I think we still live in a paradigm that was built in the 1950s, which is Markowitz portfolio optimization. For those of you who don't know, Harry Markowitz won a Nobel Prize for his innovation, which was amazing in the 1950s. Essentially, what he did, he said, what we try to optimize as investors is risk versus return and or maximize return versus risk. And risk is standard deviation or volatility in the market. And back then, he didn't have computers, so he could get a solve a closed form solution for volatility and actually solve it out and figure out what is the optimal portfolio.

30:02

Turns out it's portfolio and something called the efficient frontier. And there we're taught. I used to teach this to MBA students. We teach that as an investor, you need to get to the efficient frontier. You need to get to the highest point, meaning the point with the highest return and the lowest risk. And that's volatility. Well, guess what? That was an amazing innovation. But since then, we've learned a lot. We've learned that humans don't really try to optimize volatility. In fact, what you're trying to do is minimize downside risk. So the downside volatility. And they don't mind upside volatility. In fact, they like it. So the more volatility is on the upside, the better. So really, what we're looking for is a type of an asymmetric return.

30:42

And as it turns out, that's extremely difficult to do by hand. In fact, you need machine learning and artificial intelligence to solve these type of models. So once you figure that out, you realize, really to match what we as human investors are looking to optimize for, which is this asymmetric return where we're trying to maximize the upside volatility and minimize the downside volatility or the downside risk or the drawdown or whatever way you like to think about that risk. That's really what we want to do. And the only way to really do it is with computers, because it's extremely complicated, especially when you have a universe of many assets and you're trying to build a portfolio. And when you look at the math of it, where you have every asset and you have hundreds of assets and every asset can have a different weight,

31:28

Turns out the universe of potential portfolios is huge. It's more than the number of sands of grain and planet Earth. So it's a huge number and you can only really do it with a computer and machine learning can solve for those portfolios. It's very hard to do, but it's possible. So that's kind of, I think, an area. And that's why this paradigm shift needs to happen, because too many portfolio managers are still running portfolios on min-various optimization. They might look at the Sertini ratio, which looks at the downside risk. But typically, they don't really know how to optimize for that or for much more sophisticated ratios of risk and return. So I think that's the direction we can go. Sudhir, to you.

32:09

I wanted to completely agree with you. And I think we have Professor Kumar there. He's also going to agree, right? So see, the Markowitz efficient frontier made sense at a point in time, right?

32:17
Brad Roth

But then you can see the sense in the 60-40 stocks, bonds, which has been kind of taken as the diktat.

32:22
UT CATT Panel

And you saw how that performed in 2022. So the point is the correlations between these asset classes. The things change and they evolve, right? But for me, I want to kind of talk about this. So it kind of hit a nail on the head there. So I want to talk about this emotional risk frontier that I talk about, right? So we talk about AI for data analysis, but I want to talk about AI for managing emotions. The emotional risk frontier is the level at which an individual investor will start panicking, right? Saying, oh, man, market is going down. I need to switch. I don't like this advisor, or I don't like this manager, or I don't like this portfolio. And then they kind of start switching across different asset classes or different portfolios.

33:04

And in the process, they kind of destroy their own return. Now, is it possible using AI to scale portfolios to such a level where you cater to individualized emotional risk frontier? So the level at which, let's say, Brad, you will panic will be very different from the level at which, say, a Kyle will panic or a Tal will panic or a retail investor will panic. Can I create portfolios managed to that return risk profile that we talked about in such a way that it caters to your individual emotional risk frontiers? And I think that's something, for me at least, that becomes very interesting.

33:45
Brad Roth

Kyle, do you have anything to add there? Yeah, just quickly. So we actually produced a piece called The Evolution of Investing. And then to what these guys are talking about, I've actually met Harry Markowitz. And he never really intended for his thesis. it was created in a vacuum in effect. It was an academic paper to become the standalone thesis to how we manage money. And we're still doing it, by and large, 70 years later. it is absolutely mind-blowing when you think about what other things in your lives today do you think are operating in effect the same way they were in the 50s. And I'd be hard-pressed to find something. And so we have a piece that really speaks to how technology has redefined every industry.

34:28

You think about this meeting today. This meeting in the current construct doesn't happen when Markowitz rolled out with his theory. And so we've seen so much sort of evolution, if you will. I think it's time that our industry really embraces it. We did a paper at a prior stop for me probably about 10 years ago. It was done by one of the portfolio managers at a company I was at. And the title of the paper was Volatility is Not Risk. And the analogy that he drew was he went out and he surveyed thousands of investors. And he gave them basically two options.

35:03
UT CATT Panel

And in these options, he said, which of these two outcomes would you be more likely to trade your money for?

35:11
Brad Roth

And in effect, if I could simplify it, it was the idea that in one portfolio scenario, you had more drawdowns. You ended up with, in effect, the same result. But in the other portfolio scenario, you had massive drawdowns and the potential to lose a lot of your wealth. And what he found statistically and overwhelmingly was like 95% is most people are afraid of losing their money. They're not afraid of volatility. And the analogy, Tal, that he talked about, and we've talked about this paper, is he compared it to flying. There are people that are terrified of flying.

35:46
UT CATT Panel

And anytime there's turbulence in a flight, they start to react emotionally to that turbulence. When in reality, turbulence is a sort of everyday part of flying. What they're really reacting to is they're telling you they don't want to crash and die. And they and their brains have made the connection between turbulence, bad, turbulence, crash.

36:06
Brad Roth

And what really we're talking about here is that volatility is a normal part, Tal talked about it earlier, of investing. But what investors are really telling us is they don't want to lose everything. And that's where I think the emotional component of using AI to manage substantial drawdowns is something that humans have proven, as we've talked about, they're just ineffective at doing. And I think that's really the potential, Brad. Yeah. Well, I've gotten used to turbulence coming in and out of Denver to see you, Kyle. So but talking about crashing here, this is more for Sudhir and Tal, which is, building an AI system based off of what's happened in the past. Learning from that and building signal going forward is one thing.

36:49

But like, what are the challenges in designing your particular, mousetraps, if I could, that can help it respond to unprecedented market events and, really ugly volatility. So either of you happy to take that first.

37:08
UT CATT Panel

Tal, if you don't mind, I'll go first on this. This is a favorite topic of mine because I keep getting this thrown. And even in fact, if you look at the question and answer, there's a lot of questions around that as well. You're saying that, look, how do you know this is going to perform? Right. what performed in the past, how do you know for sure that it is going to perform in the future? It's not. You don't know for sure. Right. So there's an industry joke that there isn't a back test that, these typical large advisors haven't seen that they love. Right. It's very easy to create a portfolio now, which shows a fantastic return. If you put Nvidia and Amazon back in the day and say, look, fantastic results.

37:45

My portfolio performs great. And that's really the biggest challenge as we go on. So whether you call it back testing, curve fitting, forward bias, server bias, you can use a whole lot of terms. But these terms are just as have implications for AI as much as it is for humans. Right. So as humans as well, we tend to make biases based on what we have learned in the past. So one thing that I want to emphasize here is that it's not that you can eliminate forward bias or survivor bias or the curve fitting. You can reduce the impact of that and reducing the impact of that has a combination of two things. AI can be used to predict. AI can be used to react. Everyone in the in the last two days have talked about predicting, predicting the earnings, predicting the next stock, predicting how the market will do in the future.

38:32

So reacting is as important and reacting using AI is more important is as important as well. So I don't know if you guys have heard that there's this this experiment which was done called the Turtle Traders. So it was Richard Dennis as a trader who basically trained several novice guys out of the street. And within a couple of weeks, he trained them to become to manage their portfolio and they were pretty successful. So so for me, it is about not just addressing the prediction part of it, but being able to address the the forward bias, server bias, survivor bias and so on and so forth in the reaction part of it. So what we've done on the my stock DNA side is we have two monkeys.

39:07

We have the blindfolded chimp, which essentially picks stocks at random. And then so the theory is that if a model can perform well with random stocks, you can be reasonably certain that it performs well in the future if you're throwing random events at it. And the second is a is a Netflix inspired chaos monkey. So what we do in this is we we essentially go and randomly change returns from positive to negative returns. And that's, again, to test the efficiency of the model in terms of managing the downside risk. Right. So as long as you balance these two, the prediction versus reaction and you're able to do it, I think that that addresses the point that we were talking about. Tal, anything to add there?

39:46

Yeah, I do. So, with Bela, what we do essentially is we train it over time to learn what are the patterns that indicate that the market is more likely to go down than up. So in a sense, it's doing what a classical machine learning, a paradigm of classification. And this is something that's very it's a classical thing. But the way to solve it for the market, it turns out not to be classical at all because it's a very chaotic system. So you need something that's extremely robust. And in some ways, because it's robust, that's what makes it more successful, because if it does find a pattern, it's more likely to be repeated.

40:30

Now, it's still statistical. So what that means is, yeah, it worked in 2008. It predicted that it predicted 2018 and 2001. And in between, it also sometimes predicts things that don't happen. And sometimes it predicts things. It misses some drawdowns that do happen. But if it can capture most of them using this evolving and learning paradigm, then it's more likely to work in the future. Now, there's no guarantee, obviously. But you can kind of you build confidence over time because you can see that the patterns it detects tend to repeat. They don't always repeat the same, too, because the factors change over time.

41:10

Because what's important today wasn't important even a year or two years ago. So, inflation now is relatively high. But it's lower than it was a year ago. But it's still higher than it was two years ago. So things change. And what's important to the model also evolves over time. So I think that's important because it's not exactly it's an evolving system that's learning over time. That's what the L in Bela. And the idea is that it's trying to find those patterns that tend to repeat. But at the same time, they have to be extremely robust because you don't want things to change too quickly over time. Because these things, they need to work now. And they also needed to work, five and 10 years and 15 years ago.

41:55

So you want something like that to work for you. And really, it's a statistical game at the end of the day. It's not going to get everything right. But it's going to get enough of the drawdowns right that's going to make a big difference for your portfolio. That's the expectation. And that's what we train it to do. If you don't mind, I want to add on to that. So I did a study of all the famous analysts that we have heard of, right? so take the list. And I did a study on terms of how accurate were their predictions for the following year. So at the end of 2019 for 2020, at the end of 2020 for 2021, and so on and so forth.

42:33

And we did this with Merrill Lynch, Bank of America, and so on and so forth. And these are well-known firms who are making a significant amount of money in the market, right? So the test that we were trying to do is whether the efficacy of their prediction has an impact on their results. Turns out that there were seven analysts out of, I think, 15 that we studied who got it right in 2020. There were seven analysts who got it right in 2021. There were four analysts who got it right in 2022. But there were zero analysts who got it right both in 2021 and 2022. The problem is that most of them had their inherent bias. The analysts who were bullish were bullish throughout. Analysts who were bearish tended to be bearish throughout.

43:14

So half glass full, glass empty. you continue to be that. So if these guys are making money, it's not just because they're predicting something right or wrong. It's also they're able to react when their prediction goes wrong. And the ability to, so what Pal talked about, right? You can look at past patterns and you can predict. But what is also important is saying, okay, you recognize the fact that, okay, what I've predicted hasn't turned out true. So how do you react? How do you learn? And how do you morph?

43:40
Brad Roth

And I think that's important as well. Yeah, no, it's really important. Actually, I ran into Stan Drunkenmiller this weekend, famous hedge fund manager. And that's his whole thing. He's got to be, you have to, if your prediction is wrong, you got to be really quick to make sure that you can change your mind quickly. And so I take that point quite well. Look, I could talk to you guys for six hours about this, but we're going to have to start taking questions in about six minutes. So I'm going to ask this question directly to Kyle, which is, AI, is AI democratizing access to sophisticated investment strategies? I know you're working towards making AI strategies available to a broader retail market, or is this just still the benefit for the large institutional investor?

44:28

The answer is it depends. there's no doubt that some of the large institutions are now utilizing AI to, I think, organize unstructured data in a way that they can make intelligent decisions. That is happening, and it's happening at scale for them.

44:44
UT CATT Panel

But I think to your question, we touched on this earlier, Brad, which is how do we take,

44:50
Brad Roth

I'll give you, for instance, take Tal. So Tal runs these strategies, but he does it in a hedge fund.

44:55
UT CATT Panel

So when we sit there and we say the concept of Bela, we know is highly effective in an understanding market state. Once we then take that, it's about the application.

45:06
Brad Roth

What are the, what's the delivery mechanism? And that's really your question is how do we democratize the delivery mechanism?

45:12
UT CATT Panel

So we take something that Tal has made accessible to a accredited, qualified investor, and we say,

45:19
Brad Roth

Okay, now how do we take the same concept and deliver it in more of a democratized fashion? And that's some of the work that we've done. And that's the pieces I was talking about where you're looking at liquidity, you're looking at custodians, you're looking at delivery. So we can take something where, in some cases he has, maybe a million dollar access point to a hedge fund. And yes, there are some nuanced differences. Maybe it's leverage and some other factors, but you can now gain access to some of his strategies for as low as $5,000. And I think that's some of the work that we'll continue to do. So really quickly, Sudhir, I wanted to touch on this because I think it's a really cool project

45:54

That myself, you, as well as Tal is involved in, is you're using MyStockDNA and Darwin to take blends of different AI managers with different thoughts and blending them together in a portfolio matching someone's risk. So in about two minutes, could you kind of explain that project and how it can benefit the end retail or end client?

46:15
UT CATT Panel

Sure. So the idea that both Tal and I realized is that he's got a different brain. I've got a different brain, right? And it's the same with AI engines as well. So Bela works differently. Darwin works differently. Bela looks at a different set of data. Darwin looks at a different set of data. There are other AI engines out there which look at earnings release and so on and so forth. So there's no one perspective or one way to look at the market, right? Now, when we talked about forward bias and back testing, it's important to understand that a player who performed well in the past, say Mike Tyson, Mike Tyson performed well in the past, doesn't mean that you can predict that he's going to perform well in the future as

46:52

Well. And it happens, it'll happen with Tal, it'll happen with me, it'll happen with anyone else. Unless we evolve, it's not all of our strategies are going to survive in the future, right? And we don't want to be emotionally fed to, emotionally linked to those strategies. Right now for an advisor, when he goes in, he puts his trust on a model. He says, I want to pick manager A or manager B or manager C simply because they have a reputation, they've done, spent a lot on marketing and so on and so forth. What if we change that paradigm to say that Tal, me and the other managers out there, which is including you, Thor and the other AI managers, we compete for the right to manage money in

47:32

A portfolio. If we do well, we get more money to manage. If we don't do well, we get less money to manage. And what if this competition is governed by AI as opposed to a bureaucratic investment committee, which is basically taking into account a lot of other emotional variables in terms of who they're helping, who they're not hurting in terms of taking the decision. What if we emotionally take the decision as to which manager do we allocate funds to and how much? And that's the logic with which we're coming up hopefully soon along with UX Wealth, an all-star team consisting of all of these managers who are essentially all these AI managers who are essentially competing with each other for a position in the team.

48:16

And then once they're in the team, the idea is that they collaborate with each other to increase the alpha and reduce the beta for the portfolio.

48:24
Brad Roth

Yeah, no, it's definitely an exciting project. And I think at the end of the day, it's only to the benefit of the end client. So last question before I open up the floor to questions, we have more questions than I thought we'd get. So I want to leave enough time. So to all of you as a group, kind of briefly looking ahead, what do you see as the next big breakthrough in AI for investment management? And how do you foresee the landscape changing in the next five to 10 years?

48:53
UT CATT Panel

Can I talk about a wish list item? Go for it. Okay. All right. So, okay. And this may hurt some sentiments out there, but this is me. I'm old, so I can afford to make these statements. To me, a big part of this investment world, which hurts me to say this, are 401k accounts, which a lot of investors have put their money in, is the most bureaucratic and inefficient setup I have seen. In a 401k account, you can afford to be the most active, but you're usually the least active. And the money managers are probably the structure works in such a way that it introduces a lot of inefficiency in the process.

49:34

So where I would love to see AI make a big headway is in terms of democratizing that 401k process, because by virtue of doing that, you are going to make an impact on a generation, which is going to be able to retire early simply because you managed funds well. Beating the S&P 500, according to me, is not a problem. Anyone with a little bit of common sense and a knowledge, I can train them to do that. But doing that effectively by managing your emotions is a big thing. And then getting past all of this, what do you call it, this marketing terminology, right? When you get a brokerage statement, you get like 100 lines of saying, okay, this, that. Getting past that and using AI to do that would be my dream project.

50:17

Great. Tao? Yeah, I think Sudhir nailed it. It's really, if you're talking about in the short run, and I'm saying the next five to 10 years is short run, AI can already, in my opinion, do better than active human investors. So I think there's a huge opportunity there. And because these are active strategy, generally they generate, they could potentially generate short-term capital gains. So an ideal place for them are in tax advantage accounts. And that's why 401ks and IRAs are a really good place for these strategies. But unfortunately today, most investors can't access them from those types of accounts. So I think that kind of shift will happen. And those strategies will grow in those retirement accounts.

51:00

And I think what you'll see over time, at least my vision, is that AI will penetrate and will take more and more assets also for the passive investors. And this will happen over the next few decades. Finance is a very conservative industry. So I think it's going to take time until assets move over. But it will happen. And you'll see that more and more also in areas like ETFs and others. So I think that's really the path that we're on. And we're really just at the beginning. Because also the AI we have today is still, you have to say it. And other people in AI say this, this is the dumbest it will ever be. So they're still, they're pretty dumb right now.

51:41

And it's really the narrow AI that's very, very smart today. And that the general AI is still very dumb. So it's still going to take a while until you see general AI that can replace a human. I think that's not going to happen for a while. And I think the human is still in the loop for quite a long time, for decades to come. So I think it's a combination of human plus AI that we're going to have here for a long time. But you will see AI managing assets in a much more, a bigger way over the next few years. And it will grow to billions and trillions over time. Kyle, any last thoughts or are you ready to move to questions?

52:15
Brad Roth

Just quickly, I think the big idea is how can we as a community and as an industry penetrate the bureaucracy that exists? So one of the things that we have to tackle is the regulatory environment related to AI. And the problem that we face is that the Black Rocks of the world have so much money that they influence the politicians and they influence everybody that makes the decisions. And the reason they do that is because of where we started, which is they're afraid of the AI that it's going to take their job. And I view it as somewhat of an industry problem as almost like an industry version of the deep state. How do we show the benefits and regulate this? Because over the long run, it will be better for the investor.

52:58

That, to me, is the big idea that we have to try to figure out how to solve. Okay. Well, we've got 28 questions. I don't think we have time to get to all of them. So go ahead and give us your best questions. Yes.

53:11
UT CATT Panel

Thank you, Brad. Thanks a ton. You've all given us a ton of things to think about. I'm going to try and curate some questions that are kind of general interest. So let's start with this. So, given that we all understand that AI is essentially leveraging on historical data, and you've all touched upon this several times, especially when you discussed about the limitations of Markowitz's portfolios and things like that. So we all understand that, at best, past being a good predictor of the future can be thought of as a good assumption. Now, digging on this a little further, and given that you're all relying on past data, do you worry about AI's ability to predict specifically black swan events, events that have never happened in the past that are bound to happen?

53:52

Because there's a saying, events that have never happened in the past always happen, right? So are we hedging for that at all, or are we completely dismissing out and saying, okay, if it happens, we're going to be surprised, so be it. So I can tell you from my experience, we were running Bela in 2001 during COVID, and we reduced risk during that period. So Bela noticed that something was happening. I don't know what the pattern is exactly that it noticed, but back, I think it was in early February, it actually noticed of 2001, it noticed that something was going on, and it reduced risk. And it wasn't 100% risk off, but it was low risk right before the market corrected.

54:34

And it went back in a few weeks later. Same thing happened in 2022, where there was a decline. It wasn't risk off the whole year, but it was risk off for major parts of the year. So now you're saying, COVID never happened before. But guess what? A lot of the patterns in financial markets were similar before COVID happened, or at least waves were happening. You can call it ripples in the financial data that AI could detect and say, you know what? Something here is happening. Of course, you couldn't tell me it was COVID. It could tell me that there's a higher risk of a 5% or higher drawdown during this period. So I want to reduce risk exposure.

55:16

So that's something it can detect. It can detect those patterns. It's not necessarily that the risk is the same or the black swan event is the same. But many times, the markets are already showing, the markets are some of the best predictions. So, and it takes a while for investors to switch mindsets, but some investors could tell something was happening with COVID. So they were doing some things in the markets. They were creating some patterns. So you can see those patterns. So at least the AI can see it. I'm not sure a human could see it, but the AI could see it and could actually react accordingly. So I think that's my answer why it could potentially detect these black swan events. Now, will it detect the next one?

55:55

I don't know. There's no guarantee. It's only a probabilistic system, right? I would say the probability is positive that it would, but no guarantee. So for me, the answer would be slightly different. So imagine the Matrix movie where there are bullets flying around. And I use this analogy often, right? So there are two ways of avoiding the bullet. One is you have complete confidence in your prediction ability to dodge the bullets, get in the room and dodge. And the second is don't get in the room itself, right? Or you can also do the thing of getting in the room and getting shot by a bullet and then deciding this is not it. this is not safe. And I want to stay out of the room.

56:28

Now, it's the same with AI. As long as your AI is not wedded to its prediction and is able to manage the fact that its prediction can and will be wrong, and you have the reaction ability to be able to react, you're safe. Now, can it dodge a black swan event like the Yellowstone erupting or something like that? Probably not. Not. But can it dodge a black swan event like the market crashing 10%, 20% in the next one month? Yes, it can. So it's a probability thing. Okay. So moving on, maybe a couple of questions. I'll wise out. So managing money, as you've kind of touched upon, is a two-sided job. One is how does the money get invested in the market?

57:11

And when a human actually manages money, there's this other big part of managing your clients. And so we've touched upon this. The client's emotions, particularly greed versus fear kind of emotions, handling them. Now, we've talked a lot about how AI is going to manage money in the investment science side. Have you all thought about or are aware of any work on how AI can be used to manage clients, their emotions, reporting, that kind of stuff? Kumar, the bald patch here, that comes from managing emotions. But on a serious note. So emotions are individual specific, right? So your emotions and how you react to the market is going to be very different from how somebody else reacts.

57:55

So my hypothesis here is that it would be impossible for AI to manage your emotions, but it would be extremely possible for AI to build something that caters to your emotion, right? So I cannot influence your emotion. I can educate you. I can educate an investor. But it's going to be – but that education can only go so much distance. So I think a large part of what AI can do in the future is also construct a portfolio or a product which caters to how you emotionally react to things. And that's where I think it can help.

58:28
Brad Roth

So if I can align on that, Kumar, just ever so briefly, what we've talked about largely is AI driving investment decisions and where that can improve over time. This, to me, brings us back to the discussion of man and machine.

58:41
UT CATT Panel

The role of the human, the advisor, the person that's talking is to understand the nuance of the client sitting across the table.

58:47
Brad Roth

And the problem and the mistake that I think we want to avoid here is comparing to a relative benchmark all the time because that's where we get into this comparative analysis that evokes emotion.

58:57
UT CATT Panel

I think so. Let's say you and I are training for an Ironman.

59:00
Brad Roth

That's a long-distance goal and objective.

59:02
UT CATT Panel

Assume the Ironman is retirement. We're going to have checks along the way. And I think where we could use AI is to, again, take unstructured data, attach it to a goal.

59:11
Brad Roth

And rather than saying you're down 10, the S&P is down 12, and having an emotional discussion there, it's, hey, you're 95% on track to hit your long-term target.

59:20
UT CATT Panel

We're good to go. Is there anything else I should know about your life? And you've moved on. I think that's an important component of this. Yeah, I think the human here in the loop is the most important part with the emotions because really you need a human connection with the end investor. And I think that the AI, what it gives you is the confidence that the decisions are being made in an unemotional way. So you can always tell the client, look, AI is statistical. We have our goal, where we want to go. Here's the probability of where you're going. Here's the path. We can mark, you can run a Monte Carlo simulation and show you exactly how you're going towards that path and what's the likelihood of you making it there.

59:56

But at the end of the day, you have to trust that the AI is making the right decision at the right time. And here's the statistical performance so far and talk about all those numbers. And I think when you talk about it that way, you take the emotion out. They realize, there's nothing really I need to do here because guess what? The AI is making a better decision than I or my advisor could probably make because it's unemotional and it's based on statistics. And at the end of the day, that's the best that we can do with investing. So I think that's a stronger case than the advisor saying, look, I just made this decision. I know it's losing money, but trust me because we know that humans underperform in these situations.

1:00:33

So I think that's the better discussion. One last question. And this is an interesting general note. So we've talked about AI replacing lower level skill sets in the investing industry. And we do understand that to be able to get to a higher level of skill sets and expertise, we do need humans to go through this lower level to graduate and, get to the higher level. So if you're talking about a world where AI is going to replace all the lower level, skill acquiring or skill learning positions, will we ever be able to actually go, have humans gain the experience to get to the top? It's a good question. So I think, look, we're still in the early stages of AI and the influence on society.

1:01:17

And I think we're seeing some of the effects today. So today, AI is not replacing coders. It's making coders more efficient. So if you're a developer, you can develop much, much better code. But it's not yet developing software on its own. if you're looking in some areas, yes, AI is giving us a boost in terms of our abilities, things that we can do. And it's natural that in finance, that's an area where it's, it's all statistics and numbers. That's an area where AI and machine learning should do better than humans because we're not the best in figuring out numbers and doing all that stuff in our head, especially when there's billions of data points to work with. So that's an area where I would expect AI to do really well.

1:02:00

And I think there's some areas like that where AI is going to augment us and make us better, just like your phone makes you better, right? so it's another piece of technology that improves our lives. That's the way I like to think about it. And I think human passion for different areas, it's going to drive really what we go and learn and study. I'm passionate about portfolio optimization and AI. So that's an area that I excel in. And I think each person here has their own level of passion of what they care about most. That's going to be the motivation, the real fundamental motivation of what drives us at the end of the day.

1:02:33
Brad Roth

Well, Sudhir, unfortunately, we don't have any more time. I loved this conversation. Like I said, I could have gone for hours. Tal, Kyle, Sudhir, thank you so much for having this discussion with me. And thank you for all the viewers here listening. Thank you.

1:02:50
UT CATT Panel

Thank you. Thank you.

1:02:52
Brad Roth

Okay, folks, we'll begin in just about a minute with the next session. Bye. Bye.