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Behind the Ticker

John Davi, Astoria PPI

Inflation Protection Through ETF Strategies

·23 min

John Davi runs Astoria Advisors, an asset management firm with about $2 billion in total assets across three verticals: financial advisors, corporations and small institutions, and ultra-high-net-worth individuals. The firm's investment philosophy sits at the intersection of macro and quantitative analysis, and they've been operating since 2017. Davi is a recurring guest on Behind the Ticker, having previously discussed ROE and PPI. This time he's back for the three-peat to talk about his newest fund.

On this episode, John joins Brad to discuss GQQQ (which he calls "G Triple Q"), the Astoria U.S. Quality Growth Kings ETF. It's designed to marry growth and quality investing in a way that most passive growth ETFs don't, addressing what Davi sees as a concentration and quality problem in existing products.

Why Growth Needs a Quality Filter

Davi's pitch starts with a problem statement: most growth ETFs are just market-cap weighted with no quality filter. The Nasdaq 100, in its most extreme form, only requires that a company be a non-financial in the top 100 by market cap. There's no screen for quality at all. Goldman Sachs has a chart showing the top 10 stocks' share of the S&P 500 is at all-time highs, with the last comparable reading coming from 1928, right before the Great Depression. When concentration is this extreme, quality becomes essential.

Davi recalled a specific example from the passive index world: a fraudulent Chinese company that stayed in the index even after it stopped trading. Active quality screening avoids those traps entirely. "Growth investing has done exceptionally well," he acknowledged. "But a lot of the growth ETFs out there right now are just market-cap weighted with not even a lot of thoughtful intelligence." GQQQ is designed to bring thoughtful construction back to the growth sleeve.

Quality Metrics and Portfolio Construction

GQQQ starts with a universe of large-cap and mid-cap growth stocks, applies minimum market cap and liquidity screens, then ranks on quantitative quality factors including ROA, ROIC, and related metrics. The fund targets the intersection of growth and quality: companies where growth is strong but fundamentals are sound. The portfolio is annually rebalanced with quarterly quality reviews. If a stock significantly deranks on the quality metrics between annual rebalances, it can be replaced.

The result is a portfolio with a lower multiple than pure growth alternatives. The P/E on GQQQ runs around 23, compared to about 27 on the Nasdaq. The fund also uses a modified market-cap weighting approach that caps the weight on the largest names, which Davi predicts will become a broader trend. "I predict that in the years to come, you're going to start seeing a lot of capped-index-weight products," he said. By going down the market range into mid-cap names, the fund finds opportunities like AppLovin, which was in the portfolio when it launched in October 2023 and has since risen roughly 700%. The Nasdaq index didn't add AppLovin until December, after the run.

Positioning for Advisors

Davi positions GQQQ between SPY and QQQ in terms of both sector weight and expected performance. For advisors already running diversified model portfolios, it's a complement to existing growth exposure. For advisors with concentrated large-cap growth, the pitch is straightforward: nobody pushes back on the idea that Mag Seven concentration is at historic extremes. If taxes aren't a constraint, take some profits and rotate into something with a quality filter. For advisors who can't sell for tax reasons, GQQQ works as a quality-growth alternative for new money.

The fund is priced at 35 basis points, competitive for a smaller issuer with active management. Davi's broader firm philosophy is that diversified investing has meant being underweight tech, which has been painful over the past several years. GQQQ gives advisors a way to own tech and growth with quality guardrails. It's not just tech, though: the quality filter surfaces names across sectors that benefit from AI, including energy, industrials, and financials.

Three-Time Guest and Conviction

Brad noted that Davi is the first three-peat guest on Behind the Ticker. The prior appearances covered ROE and PPI, Astoria's other ETFs. This isn't a one-product firm. With $2 billion across advisors, institutions, and ultra-high-net-worth clients, Astoria has the scale and the track record to support multiple products. The macro-quant philosophy is consistent across all of them: systematic, rules-based, but with active monitoring and the ability to act on deteriorating fundamentals. Davi's conviction on quality growth is grounded in the data: quality as a factor is persistent, pervasive, and strong across market cycles. The current moment, with concentration at historic extremes, is where that quality filter matters most.

Key Takeaways

  • GQQQ applies quantitative quality screens (ROA, ROIC) to a large and mid-cap growth universe, annually rebalanced with quarterly quality reviews, at 35 basis points.
  • The portfolio multiple runs around 23x P/E versus 27x on the Nasdaq. Modified market-cap weighting caps the largest names to reduce concentration risk.
  • AppLovin was in the portfolio from launch in October 2023, up roughly 700% before the Nasdaq index added it in December. Mid-cap inclusion captures emerging leaders early.
  • Goldman Sachs data shows top-10 stock concentration in the S&P 500 is at all-time highs, comparable to 1928. Quality-filtered growth is more relevant than ever.
  • John Davi is the first three-peat guest on Behind the Ticker. Astoria manages about $2 billion with a macro-quant philosophy across three client verticals.

Listen to the full conversation on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or YouTube.

Full Transcript

3,612 words

Machine transcribed from Brad Roth's conversation with John Davi, Astoria PPI, with speakers identified automatically. Timestamps link to that moment on YouTube. Lightly cleaned, otherwise unedited.

0:00
Brad Roth

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0:55

Welcome to Behind the Ticker. Today we have on John Davi from Astoria Advisors. He's a frequent recurring guest on this show. And today we're talking about their third listing GQQQ, or as he calls it, the GQQQs, or as I'm calling it, the GQQs. We'll work it out. You guys will figure out what you want to call it. But anyways, it is the Astoria U.S. Quality Growth Kings ETF. They're trying to find more of those quality names inside of growth, not just in the Nasdaq 100 and large cap growth so it can go into mid cap. Makes an interesting case of finding some quality and value with their screening process and might have a little bit of different names and flavor.

1:44

We're ultimately trying to offer growth, also lower some risk because the multiple is going to be a little bit lower than what you're seeing on the Nasdaq. And ultimately the goal is to increase the Sharpe ratio as well. So without further ado, please welcome Mr. John Davi.

2:02
John Davi

Hey, John. Welcome back to the show. Good to be here. Thank you, Brad.

Read the full transcript (40 more sections)
2:06
Brad Roth

So for those who haven't had a chance to listen to our prior episodes, we already went over ROE. We went over PPI. Can you talk about your background and talk about what all Astoria does for clients?

2:19
John Davi

Sure. So we are an asset management company. We manage money for three verticals. One is financial advisors. Second is kind of corporations slash small institutions. And then the third vertical is ultra high net worth individuals. So we have about 2 billion total assets under management and advisement. And our investment discipline is macro and quantitative. And it's the intersection of those two verticals that really is kind of the sweet spot from our standpoint. The firm has been operating since 2017. And we have about 10 employees in total.

3:02

It's great.

3:03
Brad Roth

I've been watching your growth specifically in those two ETFs that you launched first. So congratulations on all your success. And you have recently launched a new ETF, which is why you're here. So can you tell me what really inspired the creation of GQQQ? I'm going to call it GQs. And what gap in the market you're looking to fill there?

3:24
John Davi

All right. Cool. And I would say, for the most part, really, we only launch products when there's a void that we feel like we have in our portfolios. So serving as this kind of outsourced chief investment officer firm, we would lean and rather go with a well-established ETF and fund provider. But, the impetus really for, our first ETF PPI was that we were unhappy with the inflation alternatives out there. And the impetus for ROE, our equally weighted ETF, is that, we just weren't pleased with equally weighted ETFs. And for G, and we're calling it GQQQ, we just think that we're at a point in the growth cycle where it's time for kind of more thoughtful portfolio construction.

4:14

Growth investing obviously has done exceptionally well, but a lot of the growth ETFs out there right now, it's just pure market cap weighted, not even a lot of thoughtful intelligence. And in the most extreme case, like, the Nasdaq 100 index and all their ETFs, there's no quality filter at all. All you have to be is like a non-financial company, a top 100. And we just think that, okay, we had a need on our side. We wanted to, we're perpetually underweight growth in our portfolios. We were perpetually underweight growth and we want to kind of close the gap. And, when we're looking at the pure passive ETFs, a lot of them, they're just so concentrated in a few stocks and we just didn't want pure growth.

5:04

We want to kind of marry growth and quality investing. And that's what GQQQ does is kind of the intersection of growth and quality investing.

5:14
Brad Roth

So I guess you kind of went over, the core thesis, but really, what is the overall objective here for long-term capital appreciation? Like, what are, what are you trying, how are you trying to construct this portfolio in order to deliver kind of a differentiated, growth, growth ETF than what's just out there that's market cap weighted?

5:36
John Davi

So the goal is to kind of, first we start with a growth universe, large cap and mid cap, growth stocks. And then we really kind of apply our traditional quality on screens of what we do in our two of the other ETFs, EPI and ROE. And then we have SMAs that we run, like quant factor SMAs that we've been running since 2017. So, the goal really is to kind of give downside protection through this quality filter. quality is one of these factors that's, very persistent, pervasive, robust. And it's the intersection of marrying, both quality and growth that we hope to be differentiating.

6:21

We can go into some specific instances, like, we had this one stock app loving that when we launched in October 1st of 2023, the G triple Q ETF. we launched with app in it. It's up like 700% since October 1st, past performance, I don't think of future results. the Nasdaq index just added it in December. And, basically it had a big run up. So we hope that, by investing in not just large cap, but also mid cap, we can kind of get some momentum on the way up. So, by also applying this quality filter, we can have a lower multiple.

7:01

So the multiple on our fund is like 23. Nasdaq is about 27. So, but I would say for people, it's a long-term hold-in. It's meant to kind of complement your growth DTFs. And we hope that we can give downside protection and have a higher Sharpe ratio over varying, cycles and over long periods of time. That's kind of the goal.

7:26
Brad Roth

So you've mentioned a couple of times the quantitative analysis process. So how does that analysis process shape the selection of the different stocks in the CTF?

7:39
John Davi

Yeah. So it's very rules-based. It's systematic in nature. we start with a wide, universe of growth stocks. And then we apply some minimum market cap, liquidity, and then we look at, various quant factors and codes and metrics. And, really what we want to do is kind of get, the ones that have, the strongest ROE, ROA, ROIC. And, have that such that it's higher quality nature within that growth universe compared to, like, the standard pure growth beta instruments that are available.

8:19
Brad Roth

So you mentioned also that you have some mid-cap exposure in here as well as some large cap exposure. So, why did you kind of choose to include some of this mid-cap exposure? What's the, do you have a preferred, tilt between large cap and mid-cap? I know that the CTF is active in nature. So, you can, it's going to fluctuate. But is there a, do you favor a certain allocation between large cap and mid-cap? And, how do those really align with G-chip or Qs and its investment objective?

8:54
John Davi

No, that's a good question. if I, take a step back, Brad, there's so much outperformance in those large cap, MAG7 stocks. They've had a tremendous run, some of the best businesses in the world. but we just think in the next cycle, there's going to be new market leaders. And we're not suggesting that it won't come from tech. We think tech should be, the cornerstone of your portfolio. AI is going to definitely be a big team. And it's going to help, not only just the tech stocks, but it'll help energy companies, industrial companies. It'll help financial companies, insurance companies.

9:36

But we, we're of the opinion that, the mega cap tech stocks have had a massive run. So, within the, once we pick the stocks, which are very quantitative in nature, even how we weight stocks, it's kind of like this modified market cap exposure. Which I predict that in the years to come, you're going to start seeing a lot of cap index weight products. And there's been already one filing out there, but it is so massive, these MAG7 stocks. So, by going down the market cap range, we hope to find more stocks like App Lovin' that are going to be the new market leaders, over time. So, I think it's really crucial that we cap some of the weights on the upside and that we go into, not just large cap, but also mid cap stocks.

10:24
Brad Roth

So, you've mentioned tech a few times. So, does GQQs have other sector diversification in it or is it pretty much just focused on the tech sector or are there other sectors that you're playing in? And do you have any guardrails on that sector exposure or do you just leave it down to the process?

10:44
John Davi

Okay. So, we try and take the midpoint between SPYs and Qs. And we want this thing to kind of, it's the goal. It's not, no guarantees and past performance to get future results. But we are trying to, kind of be in between SPYs and Qs in terms of like sector weights and then hence performance. And, the impetus really for us to launch it is, like I said, is that because we're diversified investors, that generally has meant that you've had to be on the way to tech because, tech has been expensive throughout this cycle. And, we were just, we needed to kind of close our on the way. And so, we wanted to, we just, we could not buy, let's say, the Qs, right, because it's just tough for us to do that because Qs are just this, there's no filter at all.

11:33

At least in the SAP indices, you could have four quarters of net positive earnings, to be included into the index. So, we needed something that kind of fit in between like SPYs and Qs to kind of close our on the way. So, our tech sector weights are going to be very similar to, it's going to be in between SPYs and Qs. So, it's like 45% tech, 14% communication, and then communication services, and the consumer discussion is 13%. But the difference would be that we may have stocks that are lower in market cap compared to like SPYs and Qs. It makes a ton of sense to me.

12:12
Brad Roth

So, I was actually, I had the pleasure of being on Schwab Network this morning, actually, after, while I'm waiting to get on, they did 30 minutes on how, they're super excited this bull market is going to continue. And then they had me on to come in as the volatility guy. So, it was hard for me to follow that. But anyways, the reason I say that is, you had mentioned earlier as well, you have some risk management kind of baked into this ETF. So, what strategies is this fund using to mitigate volatility and maybe protect investors when things do get a little wonky?

12:50
John Davi

So, annual rebalance, which I think is good because, if you like a stock, you should be able to hold it for like a long period of time. But the quant code is reviewed quarterly. So, if a stock, significantly deranks, we do have the ability to kind of replace it. And then, there's been instances, where big set AI stocks have gone up a lot and then kind of fell down from grace. I think, we have the ability to kind of tweak things if we see the quant factor rankings have fallen. Whereas, it may just stay in a normal passive index for like a long period of time.

13:32

The example I always give investors is like, I think it was in the FXI. There was a Chinese company that basically was like doing fraudulent. And it was kept in the index forever. And this company stopped trading. And basically, you kind of like screw it if you were just, long this one Chinese ETF. I think, where we are in the cycle, it's been a long bull market here in the U.S., long bull market in growth stocks. It's just time for more thoughtful, kind of smart beta 2.0. And we don't sell it or market it as smart beta. But I think active management, there's been a lot of flows into active ETFs.

14:13

And when we talk to advisors about it, they're like, yeah, the Qs are really just a culmination of seven stocks and it's had a good run. But, as we look forward the next three to five years, probably we need something else besides seven stocks that are going to like take growth investing to the next level. So I would say, annual balance, ongoing factor, quant ranking. If something deranks, we have the ability to kind of kick it out. But we're not moving in and out of stocks or into cash in order to kind of protect. The downside, these are companies that, pass all these quant metrics from like a quality standpoint that we feel pretty comfortable kind of being, being long.

14:55
Brad Roth

So, we'll talk about, I want to kind of talk about this in terms of the difference between GQs and triple Qs and, just passive ETFs. So, you're obviously an active manager. Sometimes active management gets, put in good light. Sometimes it gets put in bad light. How does, the active component of G triple Qs enhance like the potential performance over just, passively buying growth, buying the Nasdaq?

15:26
John Davi

Good question. what I would say is that, if you look at our core business, which is, kind of dynamic asset allocation, past performance, indicative future results. But, our stated goal in our multi-asset portfolios is to get like 150 basis points to 200 above bench. And, we've had good returns and historically in our SMAs. And even if you look at like PPI, the first ETF we launched, it's in the second percentile over the last three years at like 330 funds in that category. Even our other ETF ROE last year was its first full count of the year.

16:09

And it was in the 12th percentile out of like 1,100 funds. So, our two ETFs right now, they're largely, they're not dynamic, but they are active. And it's really this powerful quant code of like making sure that we look for stocks that fit the category. In the case of PPI, it's inflation, slash real assets, ROE, it's equally weight, G triple Q, it's about tech and growth. But, really picking and mining for the alpha and the beta and using that quality ranking, it is our true north. we've been doing it since 2017. so we just think that that is really kind of how we try and differentiate ourselves relative to like just buying like the Russell 1 growth ETF, which is just going to be like seven stocks.

16:59

So it's time to kind of like modify some of these big cap tech weights and, kind of break the gap for the next three to five years.

17:08
Brad Roth

So, as you mentioned, your other funds are also fairly new and you guys have done a great job at, getting them out there, getting some assets in them. G triple Qs is also a new fund. So just from your past experience and then the type of strategy that G triple Qs is running right now, like what challenges and opportunities do you anticipate here kind of in the early stages? in the first, call it year that this thing is alive, what challenges do you expect to face and overcome and what opportunities you think are out there for you to go out there and raise assets like you've done in your first two?

17:45
John Davi

So, it's tough if you're going to kind of compete with like three basis points, Schwab, Vanguard ETFs. So, we don't even try and like if an advisor is just hell bent on owning three basis points ETFs, that that's just an uphill battle. That's just too difficult. what I would say is that, we have an existing franchise that, we run model portfolios and asset allocation and it's a captive, client base. financial advisors are very receptive to how we do portfolio management. So they're generally pretty comfortable with our investment approach. the key is really getting above, 50 million.

18:28

Once you get to 50 million, more people look at it. Once you get past 100 million, you have a much different audience. Once you get, 150, it's even bigger audience. So you just got to be in it for the long run. We produce a lot of content. we put out a white paper, my colleague, Nick Cerbone on GQQQ. And, it's just we want to be thought leaders and the lead from content because, these aren't really thematic ETFs. It's not like it's just going to kind of sell itself or trend on Twitter. Like this is like, we want to go deep with an advisor and explain like, hey, look, we're at this point where, tech stocks have run up, over the last 15 years.

19:09

Maybe things are going to be different next three or five years. And here's our approach and here's the evidence. And when you combine quality growth investing, that that is a pretty powerful story. So in our white paper, we kind of show, at least just the standard like MSCI quality index and the Nasdaq, index. And if you kind of do like a 50-50 approach of Nasdaq and quality, you would have done better than just any individual Nasdaq allocation or quality allocation. So being thoughtful with, as a thought leader is definitely an edge that we hope to have. And you just got to get the word out there.

19:51
Brad Roth

So the million dollar question I always ask, and I know you guys do your own SMAs and in your OCIO work. So let's just, you're sitting with an advisor that's not using you for that. They have an existing model portfolio that they run. They don't want you to be a CIO, but you're selling them on G triple Qs. How would you advise that person to use this product in their already diversified model portfolio?

20:15
John Davi

Good question. we would say, it could be used as a complement to your existing, SPY, Q, your Vanguard growth DTF, your Schwab growth DTF. maybe, if taxes is something that you're able to kind of do, take some profits. this fund is like priced at 35 basis points. So it's fairly low for like a small indie issuer like us. So, I would say, like nobody pushes back when we say to them, like, look, the Mag 7. Goldman Sachs has a chart that shows like the top 10 stocks in S&P and how it's changed over time.

21:02

It's literally at 100 year highs, right? Last time was at this high was the Great Depression, 1928. you show a chart like that to a financial advisor and like, okay, maybe it's time to like take some profits, right? Take a third of it out. And the ones that don't take taxes or can't take taxes. again, that's not really our audience. Our audience is people that are like, they believe in using quality growth investing together. They believe that, okay, cap the weights. So it's not just, seven stocks that make up the entire basket in GQQ. those are the people that are like more open-minded to kind of evolve in the portfolio.

21:45

Yeah.

21:46
Brad Roth

So, John, I really appreciate your time. I hope you keep launching funds because I'll just keep having you on. And, I get calls from Frank. He's like, hey, we got a new fund we need to get on. So whatever, Frank. Shout out to Frank. But before I let you guys go, where can you find all the information about Astoria? Where can you find, all the information you have out there on GQQs?

22:10
John Davi

Great. So thanks, Brad. And I'll relay that to Frank. Frank is in a meeting right now, so he wasn't able to join this one. But I know you and I did one with Frank, which I think we are. We the first. Repeat. Probably. Yeah. Okay. You're the.

22:29
Brad Roth

Yeah. You're the first three, Pete. And I got to get you like a T-shirt or something like a regular on behind the ticker T-shirt. Maybe I'll give you one at exchange.

22:39
John Davi

That would be fun. So AstoriaAdvisorsETFs.com. That's the website for our ETFs. AstoriaAdvisorsETFs.com. And then our SMA website, let's say, is just AstoriaAdvisors.com. So two different websites. One is plugged into the other. If you just went to AstoriaAdvisors.com, you'll see the relevant ETF info.

23:06
Brad Roth

All right. Great. Well, again, John, thanks so much. I'm sure I'll be running into you here soon. Thanks, Brad. Really appreciate it.