Bob Elliott, HFND
Replicating Hedge Fund Returns at ETF Prices
Bob Elliott spent almost 15 years at Bridgewater Associates, the world's largest hedge fund, creating investment strategies across a wide range of asset classes. He also ran a $125 million venture capital fund. The experience led to a realization: hedge fund managers generate plenty of good returns, but the fees are too high, access is too limited, and the structures are tax-inefficient. "The 2-and-20 business is pretty good for the manager and not that great for the investor," he said. That got him thinking about whether there was a way to bring diversified, low-cost indexing to the 2-and-20 world. He started Unlimited Funds to do exactly that.
On this episode of Behind the Ticker, Bob walks Brad through HFGM, the Unlimited HFGM Global Macro ETF. It uses proprietary machine learning to replicate global macro hedge fund positioning at 2x leverage, delivered in an ETF wrapper at 95 basis points instead of 2-and-20.
Replicating Hedge Funds With Technology
Unlimited's approach doesn't invest in hedge fund managers directly. Instead, they've built proprietary technology that looks over the shoulder of roughly 500 global macro managers, both systematic and discretionary, to see how they're positioned in real time. They're inferring positioning from market data and manager performance, then packaging that understanding into ETF products. Think of it as aggregating the wisdom of the crowd from 500 different investment processes.
Their first product, HFND, was designed as "SPY for hedge funds," intended to track the broad hedge fund index. More importantly, it proved the technology works. With that validation, they moved to individual sub-strategies. HFGM targets global macro specifically, offering 2x the return of the global macro hedge fund sector.
What Global Macro Managers Actually Do
Elliott explained the distinction between global macro and managed futures, which sounds similar but differs in important ways. Both trade global currencies, commodities, fixed income, credit, and equity indices. But global macro managers use a broader set of indicators beyond just price trends. They consider macro economic dynamics, policy dynamics, and value-oriented factors alongside price movements. It's a comprehensive set of lenses applied to global assets. The fund can go long Japanese equities if that's the most compelling trade, or short commodities if the macro picture supports it.
Brad pointed out that the current environment, where policy changes seemingly every few days via social media posts, must be a wild ride for global macro positioning. Elliott agreed but noted that this is exactly the kind of environment where global macro managers tend to earn their keep. The fund expresses positions through futures contracts and a few index ETFs. No individual stock selection goes into this portfolio.
Daily Updates, Weekly Trading
The technology ingests daily information on both market movements and manager performance to incrementally update its inference on positioning. They're functionally running the model every single day, but they don't necessarily trade daily. They balance how far desired positions have drifted from held positions against transaction costs. In practice, they trade roughly four times a month, roughly weekly on average. During large market moves, that can accelerate. During calmer periods, it slows down.
Why Advisors Care
Elliott framed the opportunity from the advisor's perspective. Most advisors have a few big anchor clients who are accredited and can invest in individual hedge fund managers. But they have dozens of smaller clients who aren't qualified, don't want to deal with K-1s, medallion signatures, and subscription documents. "You're getting emails in April wondering where K-1s are," Brad joked. Elliott's pitch: HFGM delivers institutional-quality macro returns in an ETF that any client can own, with daily liquidity, no K-1, and a 95-basis-point fee.
The 2x leverage component is key. At 1x, the returns from macro hedge funds might not be compelling enough versus their cost. At 2x, you're getting equity-like return potential from a strategy that's anti-correlated to traditional assets, at less than half the all-in cost of a direct hedge fund investment. More sub-strategy ETFs covering equity long-short and managed futures are planned for later in the year, building out a full suite of accessible alternative exposure.
Key Takeaways
- HFGM uses machine learning to infer positioning from roughly 500 global macro managers (both systematic and discretionary) and replicates it at 2x leverage using futures and index ETFs.
- The technology updates daily but trades roughly weekly, balancing position drift against transaction costs. Large market moves can trigger faster rebalancing.
- Bob Elliott spent almost 15 years at Bridgewater Associates and ran a $125 million venture fund before founding Unlimited.
- The fund charges 95 basis points versus the industry standard 2-and-20, with no K-1, no lockup, and daily liquidity in an ETF wrapper.
- Additional sub-strategy ETFs (equity long-short, managed futures) are planned for launch later in the year, building a full suite of accessible hedge fund exposure.
Listen to the full conversation on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or YouTube.
Full Transcript
5,005 wordsMachine transcribed from Brad Roth's conversation with Bob Elliott, HFND, with speakers identified automatically. Timestamps link to that moment on YouTube. Lightly cleaned, otherwise unedited.
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Welcome to Behind the Ticker. Today we have on Bob Elliott. He's a chief investment officer over at Unlimited Funds, and we are talking about their newest ETF, the Unlimited HFGM Global Macro ETF, ticker HFGM. It is a global macro hedge fund replication strategy, although it offers 2x leverage on that index. We talk about the benefits of alternatives in the portfolio, and we talk about how Bob and the team over at Unlimited runs their entire process. There is a small section of this podcast. We lost audio for about, I don't know, 20 seconds.
Instead of re-recording, I'm just going to edit it. So I'm sorry about the technical difficulty. But without further ado, please welcome Mr. Bob Elliott.
Thank you. Hey, Bob. Welcome back to the show. Thanks so much for having me.
Read the full transcript (57 more sections)Collapse transcript
So why don't you just give everybody a quick refresher about who you are, what you do, and what all Unlimited ETFs is trying to accomplish for their clients.
Yeah. I've been in the 2 in 20 business, as I like to call it, for a couple of decades now. I spent the majority of my career at the world's largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, almost 15 years, where I was creating investment strategies across a wide range of different asset classes. And my later time there, as well as running $125 million venture capital funds, sort of increasingly realized that 2 in 20 businesses, they're pretty good for the manager, and they're not that great for the investor. And the core reason why that is, is managers generate plenty of good returns. It's just that the fees that they charge are too high.
The access is very limited to their returns for sort of the common investor. And almost always they're put into tax inefficient structures. And so that got me to thinking, starting a few years ago, about whether there was a way to bring concepts of diversified low-cost indexing to the world of 2 in 20, really starting with hedge fund strategies. And instead of investing directly in managers, basically building proprietary technology that allows us to look over the shoulder of the managers, see how they're running in real time in terms of their positioning, and then just take that understanding and package it into a wide variety of different products. And so we started a few years ago with our initial product, which was HFND, which is really a lot
Of ways you can think about like SPY for hedge funds. it's intended to track the index. But what it's done, probably more importantly, is proven out that the technology that we're using works and has allowed us to then start to package hedge fund returns in more interesting ways. And what we're focused on right now is bringing individual hedge fund sub-strategies, which is global macro, equity long, short, managed futures, bringing those to market in an ETF wrapper. But instead of just taking the return sort of out of the box as the managers offer them, what we're doing is we're targeting a 2x return.
So using the same position, the same position understanding, targeting a 2x return, and then also doing that at a much lower fee point than 2 and 20 at 95 basis points. And so that HFGM, which is our global macro product, is the first one of those. That kind of gives you a whole sense of it. And, that's our first product as part of this sort of 2x strategy. And we'll be launching a series of those later in the year as well.
No, that's great. It's super interesting. I definitely want to talk about the process of, how you're building this out. And so let's just jump right into HFGM. It's the unlimited HFGM global macro ETF. So you kind of gave me a little bit there. But, what really inspired you to start here first? And then really, how does it aim to replicate the global macro hedge fund sector in this, ETF wrapper?
Yeah. So the first thing I'd say is that global macro alpha is one of the more compelling returns that investors can add to their portfolio. And the reason is they're trading a wide variety of different asset classes at any point in time. they'll trade global currency, commodity, fixed income, credit, equity indices, things like that. And so when they're doing that, they have much more flexibility, in particular, to go long and short different asset classes and really find those opportunities. And so, as a result, what you see through time is in a lot of ways they sort of create a, I like to kind of call it like an all weather alpha return that is quite complimentary low, that's shown low correlation to things like 60-40 or the stock market.
And pretty consistent returns over time.
So how do you kind of define global macro in today's market environment? And really, how is that reflected in your factor inputs?
Yeah. So, global macro managers are, in many ways, just there's different hedge fund styles. And really what it comes down to is where are those hedge fund managers focused in terms of generating, alpha or positioning themselves. And so global macro managers are generally trading that global set of currencies, commodities, fixed income, equity, long, short, et cetera. And a key differentiator, you might think that that sounds like what managed futures managers do. And while they have a similar opportunity set, global macro managers are using indications that are, beyond just price elements in terms of determining whether there are good opportunities.
So they're often considering elements of macroeconomic dynamics, policy dynamics, things like value oriented strategies that are related to what they're doing and really thinking about, in addition to price trend elements as well. And so in that sense, it's like, it's a comprehensive set of lenses that are applied to these global assets and bringing all those together into one return profile. And so that's really what they're looking at. And functionally what we do, when we're tracking these managers is managers essentially identify themselves in terms of how they're, what sort of strategies they run.
And so, we're drawing on the positioning information or we're inferring the positioning information from about, 500 or so of these global macro managers, some of which are systematic, some of which are discretionary. We're putting all those lenses together and understanding sort of the wisdom of the crowd when you, when you put all that, essentially all that horsepower together to see where they're positioned in this sort of environment.
Yeah. Well, this sort of environment, global macro, somebody who's looking at policy and has got to be pulling their hair out a little bit with it changing seemingly every couple of days and on a tweet, but, or tweets or truth social, wherever it comes out any of these days. But what I find interesting, and I'd love to learn more about this. So you're using machine learning process, not to really come up with an opinion of the market. You are using machine learning to look at the positioning information of this global macro subset of managers and trying to replicate positioning based off of that.
So can you go into that a little bit deeper? And I hope I got that right, but it's a super interesting concept.
Yeah, I think what we're trying to do is we're trying to understand how these managers are positioned in as close to real time as we can. Because, if we can understand their positioning using technology instead of, having to pay them the two and 20, then, we can make those returns available to all investors. And the way that we do that, we start talking about machine learning and everyone kind of their eyes glaze over and they're like, this is a black box. And what the heck are you doing? What we're doing is, in many ways, relatively simple, which is, and it's something that basically any investor looking at an active manager has done thousands of times in their career, which is, if you know what a manager is doing, meaning, you know what sort of strategy they're pursuing.
You know what happened in the asset markets and you see their returns. You basically know, you can probably have a pretty good intuition about how they're positioned. Are they overweight tech, long bonds, short gold, whatever it is. And all we're doing is we're taking that core intuition and running that in a more systematically rigorous way than eyeballing it. And so functionally, what that's really taking advantage of is the fact that positioning is continuous. And I think that's a really important insight because a lot of people will look at hedge fund managers and say, oh, well, they're like, hot shots, flipping positions left and right, long stocks one day, short stocks the other.
It's not how hedge fund managers operate. And the reason why that is, is because there are transactions costs that they have to deal with. And so what it means is they can only move so fast. If you're managing any reasonable amount of money, you can't instantaneously shift positions. And so that actually gives a real advantage because what it allows us to do is to look at the path of returns and infer what set of adjacent portfolios must have described that path of returns that we're seeing given the market action. And so there's a lot of information value in the path of returns to understand how they're positioned today. And I draw a contrast with sort of traditional replication techniques, which have traditionally used techniques like, regression type approaches where you have to have a long back moving average, basically a long backward data sample in order to infer what positioning is.
And so you're getting things that are called like, that are like the average of the positions over the last three or five years. That's not really helpful, right? Because obviously managers are tactically shifting. One of the neat things about approaching it the way that we are, which, in some ways you just think about like a sophisticated Monte Carlo simulation is we're using past information. But what it's doing is contextualizing and helping us understand what is the highest probability portfolio that the managers are holding, as close to today as we can get. And that's very important. So we're solving for today's portfolio in the context of the past, but not averaging in the past.
Yeah, no, it's super interesting. I love the concept. And just curious why you decided, as you mentioned earlier, you were going to run this as like a 2X levered index. So is that just because some of these indexes, if you look at some of the hedge fund indexes, they don't blow you away in terms of kind of total return. Is that one of – and honestly, the risk profile is pretty low. Is that kind of the frame of thinking there? Yeah.
Yeah. fortunately, since we launched our first product, we got it. I've had the opportunity to talk to hundreds, maybe even thousands of advisors over the course of the last couple of years. And so part of what we're doing is designing product, leveraging. It's the same exact technology, which is, demonstrated an ability to track these positions. But we're just – we can just combine it in different ways. And in this case, advisors told us that they were looking for, one, strategies that had lower correlation to 60-40 that were diversifying. And in particular, macro-oriented strategies are uniquely diversifying to something like 60-40 strategies through time.
And then second, they said, look, the returns that generally are – that come from hedge funds, like hedge fund indices and things like that, aren't that compelling. And so we're solving that two ways. One, by reducing the fees, which is an important component of it because those indices include, fully loaded fees. But two, by raising the target return. And as typically what hedge funds are managing essentially bond risk in terms of their return. And there's a lot of, I'd say, bad incentives related to that because, they're incentivized to basically collect management fees.
And then if they outperform, great. But otherwise, they collect the management fees. By targeting something at a higher return, we're basically just matching S&P volatility, which is, totally normal volatility. And the nice thing about that strategy is if you want the full S&P volatility, you can just do that. Or you can hold a smaller amount in your portfolio if you want it to be less impactful.
Yeah, no, it makes a ton of sense to me. So when building out kind of the holding profile of the strategy, it looks like it's ETFs and some futures contracts. So what types of investments are you holding? I know it's going to change, but what are you kind of targeting and what can investors kind of expect to see in the portfolio at any given time?
Yeah, we're really focused on, roughly 30 to 40 of the largest liquid markets. And if you think about it, there's, say, a trillion dollars of assets in global macro hedge fund strategies. Essentially, they have to be exposed to the 30 or 40 largest liquid markets long and short. And so we predominantly do that through the use of futures, which is nice in the ETF wrapper, because what it allows you to do is you can take long and short positions in the ETF wrapper. And from an investor's perspective, all they see is a single ticker, a single holding. And instead, what's going on under the hood is that, we can shift, to be long gold to short gold to long gold under the hood without the investor having to basically do anything.
And also without the investor having to, absorb short term capital gains that could come from, say, a separately managed account or investing in an LP structure. And so that's what we're really doing is is basically expressing those views through through futures contracts and then a few index ETFs when appropriate.
And it can go anywhere, right? you could be in rates, you could be in equities, you could be in commodities, currencies. you've got go anywhere capabilities.
Yeah, and that's that's the great the great thing about I, I think part of this is, look, I'm an old macro guy. So, part of it is is is talking my history. But that's the thing that I really love about macro is that you really can go anywhere. it doesn't mean that you're limited to, our U.S. equities should be long or short U.S. equities only. Like, the question is not U.S. equities. If being long Japanese equities is a much more compelling trade, then that's the trade that you can put on using this using these positions. And so it really is a go anywhere, hold anything trade focused, of course, on macro markets.
So, you're not going to see individual stock selection in this portfolio. But, amongst the the major global macro markets, any anything is is fair game. And anything that these managers are really focused on is is what we're going to hold.
And so how often are you turning over the portfolio, looking at, rerunning your machine learning to kind of see positioning? Is that daily, weekly, monthly? I know it's probably fairly frequent.
Yeah. actually, the the neat thing is we we get a lot of daily information, both in terms of how markets are transpiring, as well as how managers are performing that we use to incrementally update our inference on how they're positioned. And so functionally, what we're actually doing is running every single day. We're updating our views with incremental information. It doesn't mean we necessarily trade every day because, you want to balance how far you are from your desired positions versus your held positions versus the transactions cost. But we are updating that view consistently. And as a result, we will we will trade when those are desired positions and our held positions start to diverge, sufficient to make sense.
And, functionally, that means we're trading, I'd say, roughly four times a month on average, roughly weekly on average in terms of our positioning. But, there are certain times when that may move considerably faster when there are larger market moves like what we've seen in recent days. And there are times when, during more docile environments where it might trade a little slower than that. Yeah.
So when when you're seeing positioning changes, you got to move into a new asset class. Kind of what is the thought process behind selecting, ETF exposure versus futures exposure versus, maybe swaps? Like, how are you making that decision? I'm sure the purest form of exposure with the lowest cost is probably the answer.
You've already answered the question. No, I think I'll say it this way, like, in general, futures contracts are the most efficient way to do this from an economic exposure standpoint. And the reason why that is, is on the on they are very liquid in general. We've actually seen an improvement in liquidity and new and some new products in the futures space that have broadened. So things particularly like in the credit space, new high yield bond futures and things like that, which are beneficial, which have which basically, basically at this point, you're looking for equity, currency, credit, commodities or fixed income.
There's a future futures contract for that. And they're deep and liquid. And one of the nice things is on the short side, essentially embedded in the futures contract is the cheapest financing that you can get. And so and so and so essentially it's the most efficient way to gain exposure from our perspective. There are some there's some, corners where there has yet to be yet yet to be some developments in the futures market, like emerging market. U.S. dollar sovereign bonds is a, is a place where there isn't a robust futures market or or other derivatives that we can use.
But in general, that's what we're focused on is using those because they're just very efficient. And then the other thing, this is an ETF podcast. The other thing that's neat is under the hood, you can structure. typically when you're trading futures contracts, you get something called bad income. And so you have to it's less tax efficient. What you actually do in an ETF wrapper is you structure it so that the securities held the securities that would generate bad income are held in a in a substructure. That means that you're able to wash the bad income so that the investor only sees essentially a dividend of, of good income, so to speak, in the positioning.
And so that's, that's an important component is that structuring to ensure that investors are getting the best tax treatment they can. Yeah, it's very interesting.
And so most of the whole process seems model driven. What if any human elements kind of live here? what is it that maybe you guys have to implement with the human brain rather than just let the model run? Or is it just fully model driven?
Yeah, what I'd say is it's a systematic process, which means we rely on the systematic outputs on a day to day basis. But that systematic does not mean without human oversight. And anyone who's run a systematic process responsibly knows that you you have to you have to check everything that comes out because, any systematic process could break. You could have a data vendor change something that creates a break upstream. You could have, for whatever reason, calculations being incomplete, et cetera, et cetera. And so everything that we're doing every day that we trade, we are we actually have two people who are both a co-founder.
Bruce and I are looking at the positions, checking to make sure they're right, fixing any problems so that we're most accurately reflecting the systematic process. And so that's what we're doing. There's no discretionary views. There's no this is not Bob's, random views on global macro. Check me out on Twitter if you want those random views on global macro. This is the wisdom of the crowd systematically determined. And then, of course, again, like any systematic approach, there's always what I'd call portfolio research that's going on where we're asking ourselves, are there elements of our underlying technology that could be improved to, make it more accurate, less volatile, et cetera? And that is, in some ways, a never ending task is constantly going through that that research process.
It's it's the sort of thing that if you have a robust systematic process, you you won't find that much. You'll do a lot of work and realize most of the time that what you've got is in pretty good shape. But, it's a it's a consistently evolving process that that we're that we're doing.
Yeah. So when you're talking to advisors, like you say, you've talked to thousands of advisors. How are they incorporating HFGM or alternatives in general in their portfolio? You're starting to see, a broader use of alternatives. We know the importance of them in their in the portfolio, but kind of how are you explaining or and or kind of recommending how they should view this asset class and kind of what type of allocation it should get in an overall portfolio? I know that's variable based on risk tolerance, but just kind of an in general umbrella.
Yeah, I think I think in general we're moving from a world that was 60 40 for a long time to one that looks more like 50 30 20 where 20 is the is an alts bucket. And in that alts bucket, a lot of advisors are going to sort of I call it, more traditional alts like trying to get into private equity or venture or or various private credit structures. But they also recognize that, public markets offer a compelling opportunity, particularly a compelling liquid opportunity to add all exposure into their portfolios.
And so, in some ways, what I'd say is the advisors I see are sort of 50 30 10 illiquid alts, 10 liquid alts. And so, the idea of of HFGM and really our overall suite of products is, rather than try and go pick an individual manager, you wouldn't go pick individual stocks or, you might not want to pick individual stocks. So you hold spy or the equivalent, right? This is a way to gain access to, a diversified a a manager diversified set of exposures around global macro, which, many, many, many advisors we talked to really like the complimentary return properties of of this something that could go long and short, regardless of sort of the economic environment.
That is a good compliment to the rest of the portfolio, which in a lot of ways, in one form or another is a law or long only strategies. Right.
So I'll let you make the list here, but just for the listener, what is the benefit of doing this in an ETF wrapper getting I'm saying getting hedge fund or alternative exposure in an ETF wrapper rather than going direct to an LP and and getting that exposure directly? Like, what are the main benefits?
Yeah, I think, the there's a couple of challenging things for getting a hedge fund type style exposure into a portfolio. So from an advisor's perspective, the first is there's a lot of single manager idiosyncrasy, a lot of volatility of any individual manager. And from an advisor's perspective, that idiosyncrasy is not just in the return volatility, but it's also in if you invest in a single manager, you're essentially responsible for making sure that that manager, doesn't have, let's say, compliance or operational issues.
Right. So that's a big issue. The second is the fees are too high. it's super expensive. Right. Two and 20 strategies. And particularly if you're not, if you're not a big institutional investor, you're you're you're you're often paying, rack rate or worse to get access to those strategies. So high fees. They're almost all in tax inefficient structures, often in LP structures where, essentially you're paying ordinary income, having to deal with K ones and all that. And then the last thing I'd I'd say that almost always comes up is and actually in some ways is the most important thing for most advisors is if you invest in individual LP strategies, you got to deal with the paperwork and the paperwork stinks.
And, I'll talk to all these advisors and they'll be like, yeah, I got to like chase this guy down. And, he's like, doing his business and he doesn't want to talk to me. And I don't but there's a deadline, all this stuff. It's just and and even there's been a lot of streamlining of filling out paperwork for these sorts of things. But even in the most streamlined circumstances, like someone's got to sit in a chair and sign the docs and someone's got to get the K ones and give them the tax account. And all of that is a pain. And it's also individualized. And so what we're finding, if you look at an ETF, a hedge funds strategy ETF, it basically hits each one of those elements.
We'll start at the at the at the last one, which is you can just execute it like spy. So it's very easy to execute and fits into your securities portfolio. The fees are considerably lower than LP positions. It's also more liquid than traditional LP structures. It's manager diversified. And, the tax, it's about as tax efficient as you're going to get for a diversified, moderate turnover alpha strategy. And so you put all those things together. And I think it's a very compelling package for advisors and particularly in this world where advisors, they're moving towards model ETF portfolios. And those model ETF portfolios are valuable because, they're a bit agnostic to the size of the client.
And a lot of these folks, what they'll have is they'll have, they'll have a couple big anchor clients that maybe they are. Those clients are right to invest in individual hedge fund managers. And they'll have dozens of folks for whom, they're not really they're not qualified. They're not accredited, all of those things. How do you show them? How do you build a good quality portfolio for those investors? Because you need to service them effectively without having to go through all the hassle that you're doing for your big ticket investors. And a lot of advisors we talk to love these products because they they see the ability to basically deliver something unique in a way that's actually pretty easy to execute.
Yeah, you made me chuckle there with a couple of things. It's, questions you get like, what do you mean I got to go get a medallion signature? I have no idea what that is. And then, you're getting emails in April wondering where K1s are. And those are going to just put it on extension. If you if you invest in an LP, just put your tax return on extension and wait till June or July to get that K1. But in the paperwork, it's you brought up all the points I thought you were going to bring up. It just made me chuckle because I've I've had those conversations in the past and I've seen deals fall through because people just don't do the paperwork.
Yeah, you just the person's got something else to do. Right.
I don't have 25 minutes to fill out all these subscription documents or go and get notarized and all the other stuff. Right. Right. Well, Bob, I really enjoyed this conversation. Before I let you go, where can people learn more about Unlimited and your suite of funds? And excited to see, obviously, what you guys are going to be coming out with here in the future. You gave us a little bit of teaser. I know you're not going to be able to talk about it, but we'll keep an eye on it.
Exactly. Exactly. So if you want to learn more about what we're up to, unlimited ETFs dot com, which has lots of information about our products that are in the market and the ones that are coming. And, if you want to keep up with a variety of different takes that I have on sort of macro and markets and investing, you can find me on all the social media platforms in one form or another. And so definitely say hello and check it out.
Yeah. if you want to go for a walk with Bob and hear about Japanese interest rates and figure out, try to figure out what's going on, definitely get on his Twitter.
There you go. All right.
Thanks so much for having me. Yeah. We'll see you soon. Thanks.
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