Tim Kramer

Tim Kramer is the founder of CNIC Funds and has been in the energy industry since 1997. His career spans asset-based energy companies, proprietary trading firms, and a private equity firm where he hedged commodity exposure across crude oil, natural gas, electricity, interest rates, FX, and metals. That deep energy trading background led him to spot a gap in the commodity index world: electricity is the most consumed commodity in the United States, yet it doesn't appear in any major commodity index. AMP (the ICE US Carbon Neutral Power ETF) was built to fill that gap. On this episode of Behind the Ticker, Tim joins Brad for one of the most unique product conversations in the show's history.

The Missing Commodity

Tim's thesis starts with a simple observation. The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) and Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) between them have $500-800 billion directly and indirectly tied to their constituents. These indices hold 24-25 different commodities: gold, crude oil, corn, natural gas, and so on. But electricity, which has liquid futures trading on ICE (the same exchange that owns the New York Stock Exchange), is completely absent. There's no structural reason for this exclusion. Electricity futures are liquid, traded, and well-established. The commodity indices simply haven't updated to include them.

AMP was designed to give investors access to U.S. power markets through an ETF. The fund tracks an index of electricity futures across major U.S. power hubs, providing exposure to a commodity that is increasingly driven by two powerful secular trends: data center buildout for AI and the electrification of transportation and heating. Tim argues that the demand trajectory for electricity is as clear as any commodity story in the market.

Energy Markets from the Inside

Tim's stories from the energy trading world give this episode a different flavor than most ETF conversations. He describes how when he worked at an asset-based energy company, they employed five in-house meteorologists because weather is the primary short-term driver of electricity prices. At one point, they hired NASA's head meteorologist on the logic that if he could land the Space Shuttle in a hurricane, he could probably forecast power demand. The meteorologist's edge wasn't just getting the weather right. He could predict what the commercially available weather forecasts would say and when they'd say it. The trading team would wait for the market to react to the commercial forecast, then trade against it using the proprietary forecast.

Even with that edge, short-term weather forecasting for power trading was "almost a coin flip." The long-range forecasts (next three months warmer or cooler than normal) were much more reliable. Today, Tim notes that firms are throwing enormous amounts of data and AI at weather prediction, making the space even more competitive and sophisticated.

Seasonality, Trends, and the AI Power Demand Story

Tim breaks the electricity market into two dynamics: long-term trends and short-term noise. The trends are powerful and persistent. Data center construction for AI workloads is driving unprecedented demand growth for electricity. Every major tech company is building massive power-hungry facilities, and the grid infrastructure hasn't kept up. Electrification of transportation (EVs) and heating adds another demand layer. Tim sees these fundamentals as "really strong for long-term appreciation of power."

The short-term noise comes from weather events and seasonal patterns. El Nino produced the warmest December-January-February on record, which crushed winter power prices because heating demand collapsed. That created a pullback in the power index. But the underlying structural demand story didn't change. Tim draws a distinction between trading the weather-driven volatility (which requires specialized expertise and significant resources) and investing in the long-term structural demand trend (which is what AMP is designed for).

The seasonality angle is real and persistent. Summer cooling demand, winter heating demand, and shoulder season dynamics create regular patterns in electricity prices. But each year's specific conditions vary based on weather, plant outages, and supply developments, making it more complex than simply following a calendar.

Key Takeaways

• AMP provides ETF access to U.S. electricity futures, a commodity with $500-800B tied to major indices but completely absent from BCOM and GSCI despite having liquid futures on ICE.
• Two powerful secular demand drivers: data center buildout for AI (every major tech company building massive power-hungry facilities) and transportation/heating electrification.
• Tim has been in energy markets since 1997 across trading firms, asset-based companies, and PE. His firm once hired NASA's head meteorologist to gain an edge in weather-driven power trading.
• Long-term electricity demand fundamentals are "really strong," but short-term weather-driven noise (like El Nino crushing winter prices) creates volatility around the structural trend.
• AMP is the only ETF providing targeted U.S. power market exposure. Learn more at cnicfunds.com, including monthly white papers and educational webcasts.

Listen to the full conversation on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or YouTube.