Apple Beat and Still Fell 4%. Voters Get Their Say Tonight

Apple grew revenue 12% and the stock is down 4% before the open. It's one of the heavier names in the Dow, now the index strategy's largest piece at 34.6%, on the day the midterms decide Washington.

Brad Roth
November 03, 2026

TL;DR

• Apple reported revenue of $114.5 billion, up 12%, and earnings of $2.10 a share, up 14%. The stock is $324.89 before the open, down 3.97%.

• Eight of eleven sectors rose Monday while technology fell 2.95%. Financials gained 1.86% and closed 1.8% under their 52-week high.

• Polls close tonight and results land after the bell. JOLTS and factory orders hit at 10:00, and October jobs come Friday.

Market Pulse

Futures as of 7:23 AM ET, commodities as of 7:24 AM ET, yields as of 7:19 AM ET, currencies as of 7:20 AM ET

• S&P 500 futures are down 0.06% at 7,537.10.

• Nasdaq 100 futures are up 0.34% at 28,086.30.

• Dow futures are down 0.74% at 51,602.70.

• Russell 2000 futures are up 0.07% at 2,807.80.

Monday split down the middle. The Dow rose 0.43% while the S&P 500 fell 0.48% and the Nasdaq 100 1.36%. Energy lost 3.96% as crude dropped on Hormuz talk, and technology lost 2.95%. Consumer discretionary led at 2.41%, then financials at 1.86%.

• West Texas is $97.37, up 0.94%. Brent is $105.24, up 0.45%.

• Gold is $3,921.92, down 1.20%. Silver is down 3.40% at $49.16.

• The three-month bill yields 4.126%. The two-year is 4.619%, up 3.5 basis points, and the ten-year 4.928%, up 3.8.

• Euro/dollar is 1.1178. The dollar buys 158.23 yen. VIX futures are 20.47, up 0.47%. Bitcoin is near $77,378.

• JOLTS job openings and September factory orders hit at 10:00, with 7.15 million openings expected. Election results come after the close.

THOR Risk Gauge

Neutral, one notch under yesterday. The formula reads a little better than that, but tonight is a binary event with VIX still above 20. The ten-year added almost four basis points into the vote. The index strategy is fully invested, and the even-weight strategy runs 60.6% in stocks with 39.9% in Treasury bills.

The THOR View

Polls close tonight, and control of Congress becomes Wednesday's first headline. Bonds are already leaning. The ten-year is 4.928% and the two-year 4.619%, both higher before a single vote is counted. Gold is down 1.20% and silver 3.40%, so nobody's crowding into the usual hiding spots.

Apple is the week's first big report for the index strategy. Revenue rose 12% to $114.5 billion, and earnings per share rose 14%. The stock is still down 3.97% before the open. Apple sits in all three indexes the strategy owns. In the Dow it counts for more than its size, because the Dow weights by share price and Apple closed at $338.32. That's part of why Dow futures are down 0.74% while Nasdaq 100 futures are up 0.34%. The strategy runs 34.6% Dow, 33.5% S&P 500 and 32.1% Nasdaq 100... three near-equal pieces, with no single index setting the result.

Financials are the sector with the most riding on tonight. Bank capital rules, deregulation and the shape of the yield curve all run through Washington. The sector rose 1.86% Monday and closed at $57.56, 1.8% under its 52-week high. The even-weight strategy owns it at 21.0%, alongside healthcare at 21.7% and technology at 17.8%. A steeper curve helps banks. The two-year to ten-year spread is about 31 basis points, and it's widened a touch this morning.

Signal Watch

THOR Index Rotation — As of 11/2/26

Fully invested in all three. The Dow's lead over the Nasdaq 100 grew to 2.5 points after Monday's split, up from 1.9 on Friday.

THOR Low Volatility — As of 11/2/26

Three sectors near a fifth each, with 39.9% in bills yielding about 4.1%. Financials closed the gap on healthcare to 0.7 points Monday. The system owns trends that have confirmed, and the rest stays out.

THOR AdaptiveRisk Dynamic — As of 11/2/26

The mix runs 71.4% equity, 10.6% fixed income, 10.1% alternatives, 5.5% commodity and 2.7% specialty currency. That's a big reshuffle since Friday. The commodity, dollar and bitcoin funds that ran over 40% combined are down to about 7%. In their place: Walmart, Costco, Eli Lilly, Southern Company and an anti-beta fund that gains when low-beta stocks beat high-beta ones.

One Thing to Watch

Financials at Wednesday's open. They're 21.0% of the even-weight strategy and the sector most exposed to who runs Congress. Monday's close of $57.56 sits 1.8% under the high, so the open shows quickly how the result lands.

Brad Roth / CIO, THOR Financial Technologies

This content reflects the opinions, analyses, and research of THOR Financial Technologies as of the date published. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon as the basis for any investment decision. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, and all investments involve risk. For more information, please go to: thorft.com