Cash Deployed, Futures Lower

TL;DR

• Both THOR strategies expanded in the latest rebalance. THOR Low Volatility now runs seven sectors at roughly equal weight with minimal cash. THOR Index Rotation added a second broad index and is fully deployed.

• Futures are lower Thursday morning. Dow off roughly 0.6%, S&P 500 off 0.4%, Nasdaq 100 off 0.4%, Russell 2000 off 1.0%. Oil is up again on Iran supply uncertainty. VIX ticked to 19.55.

• Microsoft and Alphabet report next week. Freeport-McMoRan and NextEra Energy report today.

Market Pulse

U.S. futures are lower Thursday morning.

As of 6:58 AM EDT:

• Dow futures are down about 0.6%.

• S&P 500 futures are down about 0.4%.

• Nasdaq 100 futures are down about 0.4%.

• Russell 2000 futures are down about 1.0%.

WTI crude is at $93.88, up 1.0%. The Iran ceasefire extension didn't resolve the Strait of Hormuz situation. Oil keeps grinding higher. Gold pulled back to $4,712.90, down 0.84% - profit-taking after the recent run toward $4,776. The 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.317%, up slightly from Wednesday. The 2-year is at 3.817%. VIX is 19.55, up 3.3% from Wednesday's close of 18.92. Bitcoin is at $77,485, down about 1.1%. EUR/USD at 1.168.

THOR Risk Gauge

The gauge reads broadly bullish, with the morning providing real pushback. The latest rebalance put both strategies at their highest combined equity exposure this cycle. THOR Low Volatility deployed its cash reserve into three new sectors, running seven in total with minimal reserves. THOR Index Rotation is near full deployment across two broad indexes. That's the bull case written into the positioning. The macro environment is less cooperative. VIX at 19.55 is elevated, up from the 17-handle it touched last week. Oil is grinding higher, not pulling back. Yields moved up slightly overnight. Futures are giving back some of Wednesday's gains.

The THOR View

The rebalance is today's story.

THOR Low Volatility went from four sectors to seven. Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Materials, and Utilities had been running at roughly 20% each with 19% in reserves. The latest execution added Financials, Industrials, and Real Estate. Seven active sectors means equal weighting brings each to roughly 14%.

Financials is the most interesting addition. Bank earnings this quarter were strong across the board: clean credit quality, healthy net interest margins, record revenue quarters from the major names. The 4.3% 10-year directly supports bank profitability. The system and the fundamentals landed in the same place.

Industrials carries more friction. The SCOTUS ruling on reciprocal tariffs removed the worst-case trade scenario, but steel and aluminum derivative product classifications remain unresolved. Capital goods companies face genuine input cost uncertainty. Aerospace, heavy machinery, the tariff derivative picture is still unresolved. Infrastructure spending provides a domestic demand floor.

Real Estate joined. The 4.3% 10-year is a direct headwind for REIT valuations. Rate-sensitive sectors compress at these levels. Data center REITs carry an AI infrastructure demand tailwind that partially offsets the rate headwind. Rate direction from here matters more for this sector than for any other in the current book.

Energy, Consumer Staples, and Healthcare remain at zero. Energy's absence while oil sits at $94 on Iran supply risk is the most counterintuitive line in the portfolio. Oil moved in both directions violently over the past week. The system doesn't read supply-disruption spikes as directional trend confirmation. Healthcare carries tariff exposure under pharmaceutical rules still in force under separate Section 232 authorization. Consumer Staples hasn't confirmed.

In THOR Index Rotation, a second broad index entered the book. The Nasdaq 100 was the system's re-entry point several weeks ago. The S&P 500 joined it in the latest execution at roughly equal weight. The Dow remains at zero. The book went from half-deployed in one index to near full deployment across two. That's the biggest positioning change this cycle.

Signal Watch

THOR Index Rotation - as of 4/23/26

Two indexes, near full deployment. The S&P 500 joined the Nasdaq 100 in the latest rebalance. The Dow remains at zero. Cash is essentially gone.

THOR Low Volatility - as of 4/23/26

Seven sectors, three out, minimal cash. Financials, Industrials, and Real Estate joined in the latest rebalance. Technology holds the narrowest edge as the highest single-sector weight. Energy stays at zero while oil pushes toward $94.

One Thing to Watch

Microsoft and Alphabet both report next week. The technology sector is THOR Low Volatility's highest-weight position, and the Nasdaq 100 is one of two indexes in THOR Index Rotation. Those earnings land directly on the system's heaviest concentrations. Azure guidance from Microsoft is the clearest read on enterprise AI demand this cycle. A strong quarter validates the tech sector at 14%. Soft guidance reopens the most interesting question for our positioning.

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Brad Roth / CIO, THOR Financial Technologies

This content reflects the opinions, analyses, and research of THOR Financial Technologies as of the date published. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon as the basis for any investment decision. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, and all investments involve risk. For more information, please go to: thorft.com