Copper Fell 4%. The Inflation Report Is Expected to Get Worse

Silver dropped 3% and platinum 3% in the same move while crude added another 1.1%, and the August producer price report lands at 8:30 with consensus at 5.3% year over year against 4.7% in July. Financials is the second largest of six sector positions in the even-weight strategy.

Brad Roth
September 10, 2026

TL;DR

• The metals board broke overnight. Copper is off 4.23% at $6.597, silver 3.03% and platinum 3.12%, while West Texas crude added 1.13% to $97.14.

• Three rate events land today. The European Central Bank decides at 8:15 with the market looking for 2.65% from 2.40%, producer prices come at 8:30, and Treasury sells thirty-year paper at 1:01.

• Financials is 16.4% of the even-weight strategy and the gap between the two-year and the ten-year sits at 42 basis points.

Market Pulse

Futures as of 6:51 AM ET.

• Dow futures are up 0.23%.

• S&P 500 futures add 0.10%.

• Nasdaq 100 futures are down 0.22%.

• Russell 2000 futures are up 0.13%.

• Volatility trades at 16.54, up 0.5%.

The S&P 500 closed Wednesday at 7,636.36, down 0.48%. The Dow finished at 52,380.66, down 0.77%, and the Nasdaq Composite at 26,253.34, down 0.64%. Small caps fell 1.37%. One of eleven American sectors closed higher, energy at 0.83%. Industrials was the weakest at 1.51% lower. Financials and healthcare held up best among the nine that fell.

The move overnight is in metals. Copper is off 4.23% at $6.597, silver 3.03% and platinum 3.12%. Gold slipped 0.82% to $4,424.01. Crude went the other way, West Texas up 1.13% at $97.14 and Brent at $101.75. Every American maturity is higher this morning. The two-year yields 4.438%, the ten-year 4.860% and the thirty-year 5.309%. The dollar index sits at 98.90, the euro at 1.1624 into the central bank decision, and the yen at 154.09. European stocks are steady this morning.

THOR Risk Gauge

Steady, with the inputs pulling against each other. Both systematic strategies went into this morning near fully invested, 99% in the index strategy and 96% across six sectors in the other. A 4% break in copper says one thing about growth. A producer price report forecast at 5.3% says the opposite about costs. The market gets both before ten o'clock. Volatility at 16.54 isn't pricing much difficulty either way.

The THOR View

Financials is 16.4% of the even-weight strategy, second largest of the six sector positions. It goes into the busiest rate morning of the month. Europe decides at 8:15 and is expected to raise to 2.65% from 2.40%, producer prices arrive at 8:30, and Treasury sells thirty-year paper at 1:01 this afternoon. Every American maturity is higher already. What matters to a lender is the shape rather than the level, and that gap is holding at 42 basis points. Financials was the second best of the eleven American sectors Wednesday at minus 0.42%, on a session where only energy finished green.

Materials is 16.3% and sits directly on top of that move. Miners and metals producers sell what just repriced. Copper fell 4.23%, silver 3.03%, and aluminium and zinc came with them. The European basic resources index is down 2.18%. Then the 8:30 report points the other way. Consensus has August producer prices at 5.3% year over year against 4.7% in July, and the core rate at 4.6% from 4.2%. Metals collapsing while producer prices accelerate is an odd pair. Crude is what reconciles it.

The strategy also keeps 4.1% in bills paying 3.92% on three-month paper. That's the piece with no duration in it on a day when the long end is the event. The last thirty-year auction cleared at 5.216% and the market is nine basis points above that this morning. Healthcare is the largest position at 16.5% and took the mildest session of the nine decliners Wednesday at minus 0.33%. Real estate and utilities are 15.7% and 15.6%, and those two answer to the auction more directly than to the producer number that comes first. Six positions, sized within nine tenths of a point, reading four separate drivers this morning.

Signal Watch

THOR Index Rotation — As of 9/9/26

Both benchmarks take roughly half each, with the rest in bills. Wednesday went against the price-weighted average again, down 0.77% to 0.48% for the broad index. This morning's futures reverse it, the Dow contract up 0.23% against a 0.22% decline in the Nasdaq. Separation two sessions running, in both directions.

THOR Low Volatility — As of 9/9/26

Six sectors sized inside nine tenths of a point of each other, 16.5% at the top and 15.6% at the bottom. The two largest were also the two that held up best Wednesday. The four at zero haven't confirmed.

THOR AdaptiveRisk Dynamic — As of 9/9/26

The actively managed strategy runs 59.2% in equities, 16.0% in commodities, 14.5% in specialty currency exposure, 5.6% in alternatives and 4.5% in rate hedging. Energy and the diversified commodity position are 18.8% between them, which is the side of the commodity move that worked overnight. The rate hedge is the piece that answers to this afternoon's auction.

One Thing to Watch

Treasury sells thirty-year paper at 1:01 this afternoon. The last one cleared at 5.216% and the long end is nine basis points above that already. Real estate and utilities are 31.3% of the even-weight strategy between them. Both price off that number more directly than off the producer report five hours earlier.

Brad Roth / CIO, THOR Financial Technologies

This content reflects the opinions, analyses, and research of THOR Financial Technologies as of the date published. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon as the basis for any investment decision. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, and all investments involve risk. For more information, please go to: thorft.com