Copper Is Up 2%. Small Business Optimism Fell Again

Brent trades near $100 and the whole base metals board is green, while August small business optimism came in at 98.7 against a 99.4 consensus. Materials and industrials sit on opposite sides of that move, and the even-weight strategy owns both.

Brad Roth
September 08, 2026

TL;DR

• Copper added 2.22% and West Texas 2.60% after Iran threatened Gulf energy infrastructure. Brent is knocking on $100.

• The August small business survey fell for a second month to 98.7. The firms that buy raw materials are turning gloomier while the price of what they buy keeps rising.

• Dow futures are down 0.78% against a Nasdaq contract sitting flat. Materials is 16.3% and industrials 15.7% of the even-weight strategy.

Market Pulse

Futures as of 7:28 AM ET.

• Dow futures are down 0.78%.

• S&P 500 futures are off 0.29%.

• Nasdaq 100 futures are up 0.02%.

• Russell 2000 futures are down 0.31%.

• Volatility trades at 15.74, up 2.9%.

Friday was the last cash session. The S&P 500 closed at 7,718.60, down 0.38%. The Dow finished at 53,414.25, down 0.51%, and the Nasdaq Composite at 26,506.99, down 0.29%. Small caps gained 0.28%. Three of eleven American sectors closed higher: technology at 0.70%, industrials at 0.41% and utilities at 0.12%.

Commodities are where the morning is. West Texas trades at $93.86, up 2.60%, and Brent at $98.60, up 1.65%. Copper added 2.22% to $6.831. Aluminium, zinc and nickel are higher in London, wheat is up 1.78% and heating oil 2.61%. Gold went the other way, off 0.69% to $4,445.76. The ten-year yields 4.801% and the thirty-year 5.263%, both about 1.7 basis points higher. The two-year sits at 4.377%. The dollar index eased to 98.94 and the yen reached a seven-month high at 154.29. August small business optimism landed at 98.7 against a 99.4 consensus and 99.8 the month before.

THOR Risk Gauge

Constructive. Energy, base metals and grains are all higher this morning. That's an input-cost story, not a growth story. Volatility at 15.74 sits under 16, and the gap between the two-year and the ten-year widened to 42 basis points. Both systematic strategies went into the session near fully invested, across sectors that answer to three different drivers.

The THOR View

Materials is 16.3% of the even-weight strategy and the third largest of six sector positions. Chemicals, industrial gases and metals producers price off the board that just moved. Copper is up 2.22% at $6.831 and the rest of the base metals came with it. The sector gave up 0.34% Friday, better than seven of the other ten on a day only three finished green. Goldman raised its oil forecasts this morning and now sees Middle East disruption running into 2027. That's a supply picture that doesn't unwind on the next headline.

Industrials is 15.7% and stands on the other side of that trade. Machinery, freight and aerospace pay for copper and diesel rather than sell them. It was the second strongest sector in the country Friday at 0.41%. That's the more interesting result, given where input costs went last week. Heating oil is up 2.61% this morning, and diesel is what moves freight. The August small business survey at 98.7 measures the same squeeze from the customer's end. Owning both sides of a commodity move means the strategy isn't asked to be right about where copper goes next.

Healthcare is the largest position at 16.7% and answers to none of it. Hospital volumes and drug demand don't reprice off the metals board. It had the third worst session of the eleven Friday at minus 1.04%. That's the price of sitting biggest on a day that sold defensives. Utilities and real estate, at 15.4% and 15.6%, take their cue from the long end. That end gave ground again this morning. Three drivers inside six positions. The strategy also keeps 4.1% in bills paying 3.86% on three-month paper.

Signal Watch

THOR Index Rotation — As of 9/4/26

The two American averages take roughly half each. This morning the Dow contract is down 0.78% and the Nasdaq contract sits flat. Equal sizing means neither side of that gap decides the day.

THOR Low Volatility — As of 9/4/26

Materials and industrials are the two positions closest to this morning's commodity move, one selling into it and one paying for it. Healthcare is the biggest position and the furthest from it. The four sectors at zero haven't confirmed a trend the system owns.

THOR AdaptiveRisk Dynamic — As of 9/4/26

The actively managed strategy runs 59.3% in equities, 15.9% in commodities, 14.5% in specialty currency exposure, 5.7% in alternatives and 4.4% in rate hedging. An energy position and a diversified commodity position make up 18.3% between them, direct exposure to the move driving this morning. The gold income leg at 11.2% is the one going the other way, with gold off 0.69%.

One Thing to Watch

The New York Fed publishes one-year consumer inflation expectations at 11:00, last at 3.6%. Crude is up 2.6% and copper 2.2% before the open. That survey is the cleanest read on whether a supply shock is becoming an inflation expectation, and materials at 16.3% gains from the first while getting repriced by the second.

From the same desk — THOR Signals reads the regime on the whole market and any name your clients hold, three horizons, every market evening, with the price where each read turns. See it at thorsignals.com.

Brad Roth / CIO, THOR Financial Technologies

This content reflects the opinions, analyses, and research of THOR Financial Technologies as of the date published. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon as the basis for any investment decision. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, and all investments involve risk. For more information, please go to: thorft.com