Factories Say Prices Are the Worst Since the Pandemic. Nobody Sold

A manufacturing survey put cost pressure above its pandemic-era peak and crude stopped falling the same morning, and the S&P 500 still closed 1.48% higher. Both systematic strategies open near fully invested, with materials at full size as the position whose revenue line is the price of things.

Brad Roth
August 04, 2026

TL;DR

• Monday's manufacturing survey showed cost complaints worse than the pandemic era, and the S&P 500 closed up 1.48% at 7,600.50 anyway. Microsoft gained 4.93%, Alphabet 4.88% and Boeing 8.03%.

• Crude's de-escalation drop stalled inside one session. WTI settled at $80.34 and trades $80.52 this morning after Tehran denied it was negotiating, and Saudi Aramco reported second-quarter profit up 33%.

• Precious metals are bidding into the cost story, with silver up 2.03% overnight and gold holding above $4,100. Volatility trades at 15.61 and the S&P sits within half a percent of its high.

Market Pulse

Futures as of 7:10 AM ET

• U.S. futures are higher.

• S&P 500 futures are up 0.19%.

• Nasdaq 100 futures add 0.78%.

• Dow futures are up 0.56%.

• Russell 2000 futures gain 0.11%.

Prior close, Monday 8/3/26

• The S&P 500 closed at 7,600.50, up 1.48%.

• The Nasdaq Composite finished at 25,913.90, up 2.13%.

• The Dow ended at 53,178.41, up 1.32%.

• The Russell 2000 closed at 2,981.91, up 1.73%.

The 10-year Treasury yield is 4.690%, the 2-year 4.254% and the 30-year 5.239%. WTI trades at $80.52. Gold is $4,109.10, silver $59.03, the VIX 15.61. The dollar buys 157.82 yen, above where it sat before the weekend intervention. Overseas, the Nikkei rose 0.32% and the DAX 0.64% while Hong Kong fell 0.60%.

THOR Risk Gauge

Cautiously bullish. Volatility at 15.61, an index within half a percent of its high, and a rally that took small caps 1.73% higher describes a market with very little fear priced into it. The counterweight is that both things which made Monday morning look disinflationary reversed inside a day: cost pressure came in above its pandemic peak, and crude stopped falling once Tehran denied it was talking. A market at highs with an unresolved war needs its earnings to keep arriving on schedule.

The THOR View

Silver added 2.03% overnight to $59.03 and gold sits at $4,109.10, both within reach of their records. Materials, at 15.9%, is the one position in the even-weight strategy whose revenue line is literally the price of those things. Monday's manufacturing survey gets read as a growth number, and the growth part was unremarkable. What moved was cost, with respondents putting price pressure above where it sat during the pandemic. That is the most direct input a chemicals, packaging or metals producer has, and producers sell into rising prices before anyone downstream can pass them along. When the complaint running through the economy is cost rather than demand, this is the sector on the receiving end of it.

Monday was wide and narrow at the same time. Small caps gained 1.73% and the transports 0.91%, and yet Microsoft, Alphabet and Boeing produced most of the index-level move between the three of them. The rotation strategy answers a session shaped like that by owning the two broadest American averages at roughly half each, the S&P 500 at 49.9% and the blue-chip average at 49.2%, with about 1% in bills. This morning it narrows again, with Palantir up roughly 16% before the open on commercial revenue. Owning both averages in equal size means never having to decide which of those two days is the real one.

The Treasury curve told the same story the cost survey did. The 10-year backed up to 4.690% and the 30-year to 5.239% while the 2-year sat still at 4.254%, leaving roughly 44 basis points between the front end and the ten-year. Financials, second-heaviest among the sectors at 16.2% and up 0.72% Monday, is the position with the most direct claim on that gap. A steeper curve is the cleanest arithmetic a bank has: deposits reprice off the front end, loans off the long end, and the distance between them is net interest margin. Getting paid on the spread rather than the direction is a reasonable thing to own with an index at its high. Energy is still out: a barrel that fell almost 6% in a session and turned back up the next is an event price, not a confirmed trend.

Signal Watch

THOR Index Rotation — As of 8/3/26

Two broad benchmarks at essentially half each, with 1% in bills. The blue-chip average has the least semiconductor content of the major American measures, and pairing it evenly against the S&P is why three weeks of dispersion inside the chip complex has not set the result either way.

THOR Low Volatility — As of 8/3/26

Six sectors run between 15.8% and 16.4%, a spread of sixty basis points, with 4.1% in bills. Every active position sells a physical good or a regulated service, which is the part of the market that reprices when the argument turns to input cost. The four sectors at zero have not confirmed the trend the system requires.

THOR AdaptiveRisk Dynamic — As of 8/3/26

Equity is now half this strategy, with specialty currency at 18.7%, commodity 15.1% and fixed income 13.6%. The structure moved materially over the past week. The three largest positions are a long dollar fund, a broad commodity strategy and an interest-rate hedge, which together account for more than 44% of the strategy and are macro instruments rather than equity exposure.

One Thing to Watch

Factory orders for June arrive at ten this morning, and the revision underneath them matters more than the headline. Core capital-goods orders, which strip out aircraft and defense, are the cleanest read on whether the spending every hyperscaler has guided higher is reaching the order books of the companies that build and supply it. Industrials at 16.4% and materials at 15.9% are the two positions that get paid on that answer.

Brad Roth / CIO, THOR Financial Technologies

This content reflects the opinions, analyses, and research of THOR Financial Technologies as of the date published. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon as the basis for any investment decision. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, and all investments involve risk. For more information, please go to: thorft.com