Five Weeks Down - And the Hardest Test Is Still Ahead

TL;DR

Five consecutive weekly losses - the longest streak since 2022. Both THOR strategies could have a rebalance this week, and Friday's weakness puts both signals right at the edge of potential changes. The real catalyst: Iran's ceasefire deadline expires April 6, and every headline between now and then will drive wild swings.

What Just Happened

The S&P 500 fell 1.7% Friday, closing at 6,477. The Nasdaq dropped 2.4%. The Dow lost 1.7%. That makes five consecutive weekly losses - the longest streak since the bear market of 2022.

The catalyst? Iran denied Trump's ceasefire claims Thursday night. Oil spiked back above $89. The VIX fear gauge crossed 30 for the first time this year. Treasury yields climbed as stagflation fears returned.

Friday's selloff wasn't panic. It was exhaustion. Every diplomatic headline moved the market violently. Every reversal was met with selling. By the close, the message was clear: no one trusts this rally until the Iran situation resolves.

Both the Dow and Nasdaq are now officially in correction territory - down more than 10% from recent highs. The S&P is teetering just above that threshold.

THOR Risk Gauge

Cautious

Both strategies remain invested but momentum is fading fast. Monday's rebalance could shift positioning materially if trailing signals deteriorate further.

The THOR View

The system is positioned for exactly this kind of environment. The Index Rotation model holds nearly equal weight in the Dow and S&P 500 with minimal Nasdaq exposure - a defensive lean within a risk-on stance. The Low Volatility model is overweight Energy, Materials, and Staples - classic inflation hedges that have held up while growth names sold off.

Here's what matters: both models could have signals this week. Five straight weeks of losses have eroded the momentum cushion that keeps positions in risk-on territory.

That's not a prediction. That's how the signal works. It detects regime changes in real time. And right now, we're sitting on the edge of one.

The Low Vol model tells a similar story. Energy's 17.8% weight is doing the heavy lifting as oil trades above $89 on the Iran premium. But if volatility continues to spike, the equal-weight screen will rotate further into Cash. The system doesn't fight the tape - it follows it.

Index Rotation Model

Low Volatility Model

What Happens Next

The next seven days will be critical. Here's what to watch:

Monday, March 30:

• Dallas Fed Manufacturing (2:30 PM ET)

• Fed Chair Powell speaks (2:30 PM ET)

Tuesday, March 31:

• China Manufacturing PMI (1:30 AM ET)

• ADP Private Payrolls (12:15 PM ET)

• Consumer Confidence (2:00 PM ET)

Wednesday, April 1:

• ISM Manufacturing PMI (2:00 PM ET)

• Retail Sales (12:30 PM ET)

Thursday, April 2:

• Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET)

Friday, April 3:

• Nonfarm Payrolls (8:30 AM ET)

• ISM Services PMI (2:00 PM ET)

Sunday, April 6:

• Trump's Iran ceasefire deadline expires (8:00 PM ET)

That Friday jobs report will set the tone for the following week. If it comes in weak, stagflation fears will intensify. If it's strong, the Fed stays hawkish. Either way, volatility stays elevated.

But the real catalyst is April 6. If Iran doesn't reopen the Strait of Hormuz by then, Trump has threatened to strike their energy infrastructure. That would send oil past $120 and trigger a full-blown energy crisis.

Markets won't wait until Sunday to react. Every headline between now and then will drive wild swings.

Weekend Reading

Behind the Ticker: 40 Funds, $20B, and the Case for Junior Silver Miners

Guest: Christian Magoon, Founder & CEO, Amplify ETFs

Christian Magoon built First Trust's early ETF business, raised $3B at Claymore before it was acquired by Guggenheim, and launched Amplify ETFs in 2015. Now approaching $20B across 40 funds, he breaks down Amplify's barbell strategy of income and thematic growth, explains why SILJ (the only junior silver miners ETF) is seeing record inflows, and shares what the next decade of ETF innovation looks like from a builder who's launched over 100 products.

Listen on Spotify: Behind the Ticker - Christian Magoon

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Quote of the Week

“The stock market is the only market where things go on sale and all the customers run out of the store.”

— Cullen Roche

Five consecutive down weeks. Corrections are supposed to feel like this. The discipline is staying anchored to process when every headline screams at you to react.

Brad Roth
CIO, THOR Financial Technologies

This content reflects the opinions, analyses, and research of THOR Financial Technologies as of the date published. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon as the basis for any investment decision. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, and all investments involve risk. For more information, please go to: thorft.com