Four Days, Four Points Between the Nasdaq and the Dow

Brad Roth
October 16, 2026

TL;DR

• Through Thursday, the Nasdaq 100 is down 3.10% this week and the Dow is up 0.98%. The index strategy owns both in even thirds, and the Dow is now its largest piece at 33.6%.

• Healthcare is up 3.74% on the week and closed 0.93% under its 52-week high. It's the largest sector in the even-weight strategy at 20.9%.

• September producer prices rose 1.3% against a 0.6% forecast. Truist, M&T, Regions and Citizens all beat profit estimates this morning, and monthly options expire today.

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Market Pulse

Futures as of 7:09 to 7:15 AM ET, commodities as of 7:24 AM ET, yields as of 7:18 to 7:25 AM ET, currencies as of 6:51 AM ET

• S&P 500 futures are up 0.11% at 7,799.75.

• Nasdaq 100 futures are down 0.06% at 30,127.00.

• Dow futures are up 0.11% at 52,490.00.

• Russell 2000 futures are up 0.20% at 2,787.40.

Thursday shrugged off a hot inflation report. The S&P 500 rose 0.28% and the Dow 1.08%. Small caps gained 1.37% and the Nasdaq 100 slipped 0.13%. Eight of eleven sectors rose. Healthcare led at 1.86%, then materials at 1.79%. Energy finished last, down 1.58%.

• Brent is $106.33, up 0.39%. West Texas is $97.86, down 0.11%.

• Gold is $4,201.25, up 0.75%. Silver is up 1.63% at $58.09, and copper 1.31%.

• The three-month bill yields 4.183%, the two-year 4.757% and the ten-year 5.112%, up 2.2 basis points.

• Euro/dollar is 1.1263, up 0.37%. The dollar buys 157.93 yen. Volatility futures are 16.97. Bitcoin is $82,191, up 1.40%.

• Fed Chair Warsh gave no hint on the October 28 decision late Thursday.

• Import prices land at 8:30 and industrial production at 9:15. Monthly options expire at the close.

THOR Risk Gauge

Slightly bullish. The index strategy is fully invested across the three major American indexes. The even-weight strategy holds 60.5% in three sectors and 40.0% in Treasury bills. Futures are green and eight of eleven sectors rose Thursday. Producer prices up 6.3% from a year ago and a ten-year above 5.1% keep it from leaning further.

The THOR View

This week split the market down the middle. Through Thursday, the Nasdaq 100 is down 3.10% and the Dow is up 0.98%. That's a four-point gap in four sessions. Chip stocks did most of the damage, and technology is down 4.82% on the week. Healthcare went the other way, up 3.74%. The equal-weight S&P 500 rose 0.92% while the regular index lost 0.87%.

The index strategy didn't have to pick a side. It owns the three major indexes in even thirds. A week ago the Nasdaq 100 was the largest piece at 33.9%. Today it's the Dow at 33.6%, with the Nasdaq 100 at 33.2%. That shift came from prices moving inside a fixed split. Winners grow and laggards shrink, so the portfolio leaned toward the Dow as the Dow earned it.

The even-weight strategy shows the same thing one level down. Healthcare grew from 20.1% of the portfolio a week ago to 20.9%, the largest of its three sectors. UnitedHealth raised its 2026 forecast Tuesday, and the sector added 1.86% on Thursday's hot inflation day. Technology slipped from 20.4% to 19.4% as the sector fell. The market's biggest sector lost 4.82% this week... and it's less than a fifth of this portfolio.

Financials, the third sector at 20.2%, got a solid morning. Truist earned $1.42 a share against a $1.14 estimate. M&T, Regions and Citizens beat too, and Travelers topped forecasts by 27%. The shares are mixed before the open, with M&T up 2.6% and Travelers down 4.3%. The gap between the two-year and the ten-year is about 36 basis points, and banks earn on that gap.

Signal Watch

THOR Index Rotation — As of 10/15/26

Fully invested in three near-equal pieces. The Dow holds the top slot after Thursday's 1.08% gain.

THOR Low Volatility — As of 10/15/26

Three sectors within a point and a half of each other, and 40.0% in bills. Financials rose 1.38% Thursday and are up 0.99% on the week.

THOR AdaptiveRisk Dynamic — As of 10/15/26

The mix runs 45.4% equity, 18.7% alternatives, 15.1% commodity, 14.6% specialty currency and 6.3% fixed income. The commodity fund is the largest position, with gold, silver and copper all higher this morning. Crypto adds up to 15.6%, the bitcoin fund at 12.5% and the ether fund at 3.1%.

One Thing to Watch

Industrial production lands at 9:15, forecast up 0.4% after a flat August. Factory output matters most for the Dow's industrial names, and the Dow is now the largest piece of the index strategy. Monthly options also expire at the close, which can add swings to the week's last hour.

Brad Roth / CIO, THOR Financial Technologies

This content reflects the opinions, analyses, and research of THOR Financial Technologies as of the date published. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon as the basis for any investment decision. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, and all investments involve risk. For more information, please go to: thorft.com