Futures Rally Into The Fed. Brent Holds Triple Digits.

TL;DR

Futures are green across the board as the FOMC kicks off its two-day meeting, with the rate decision and dot plot due tomorrow at 2 PM ET. Brent crude holds above $100 on Strait of Hormuz disruptions, but equities aren't flinching. Both THOR systems remain fully invested with Nasdaq and tech still turned off. Selective exposure heading into a catalyst-heavy week.

Market Pulse

Futures as of 7:00 AM ET:

• S&P 500: 6,688 (+0.79%)

• Dow: 46,886 (+0.63%)

• Nasdaq 100: 24,636 (+0.99%)

Building on Monday's session where the S&P 500 gained 0.89% and the Dow added a similar amount. Nasdaq futures are leading this morning, recouping some of the damage from last week's tech-led selling.

Crude: Brent at $102.93, WTI at $95.72. Both up roughly 2% overnight on renewed Strait of Hormuz supply concerns. WTI briefly touched $100 intraday Monday before pulling back. Analysts are flagging $120 Brent if the disruption timeline extends beyond Q1.

Gold: $5,019/oz, down 1.2%, testing the $5,000 floor. A firming dollar and fading rate-cut expectations are pulling capital away, but physical demand near $5,000 has been a consistent bid.

Rates: The 10-year at 4.23%, down from 4.28% Friday. Some duration buying ahead of the Fed, but no panic move.

Bitcoin: ~$74,900, holding the $72K-$75K range. Stabilizing after the February washout.

On deck this morning: February PPI at 8:30 AM ET. Producer prices matter more than usual given the oil-driven inflation thesis. Hot print and the rate-cut timeline gets pushed further out.

THOR Risk Gauge

Bullish

Both systems heavily invested. Seven of 10 sectors risk-on, 2 of 3 indexes active. Tilt away from growth, favoring energy, materials, industrials, and staples. Positioning stable for over a month. Invested but not overextended - the absence of Nasdaq and tech keeps maximum aggression off the table.

The THOR View

The tape is rising despite an oil shock that in prior cycles would have triggered a meaningful correction. Brent above $100 is not trivial. Strait of Hormuz disruptions affect 20% of global crude and LNG flows. Yet the S&P 500 is clawing higher, the Dow has held up well, and even the Nasdaq is finding buyers.

Two things explain it. First, the labor market remains firm and consumer spending hasn't cracked despite energy inflation. The real economy is absorbing $100 oil better than it did in 2022. Second, markets are looking past the current disruption toward containment, pricing in a finite shock rather than a structural one.

The THOR systems aren't making that bet. Both funds remain positioned with tech exposure turned off and energy as the largest weight in the low volatility strategy. If oil pushes toward $120, energy positions benefit directly while the tech underweight provides insulation from the growth stock compression that higher input costs produce. If oil resolves lower, the broad equity exposure captures the relief trade.

Tomorrow's FOMC decision is expected to be a hold at 3.50%-3.75%. The dot plot is the real event. Any signal that the committee sees fewer cuts in 2026 would push yields higher and pressure the growth trade. Current positioning is well-suited for exactly that outcome.

Signal Watch

THOR Index Rotation

Holdings as of 3/16/26

THOR Low Volatility

Holdings as of 3/16/26

One Thing to Watch

Tomorrow at 2 PM ET: the FOMC rate decision, updated economic projections, and the dot plot. The hold itself is priced in. What matters is whether the committee's median 2026 projection still shows two cuts or pulls back to one. With oil where it is and inflation reaccelerating in the commodity complex, the risk tilts hawkish. Chair Powell's press conference at 2:30 PM will set the tone for the rest of the week.

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Brad Roth / CIO, THOR Financial Technologies

This content reflects the opinions, analyses, and research of THOR Financial Technologies as of the date published. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon as the basis for any investment decision. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, and all investments involve risk. For more information, please go to: thorft.com