Gold and Silver Rallied Overnight. The Fed Decides at 2:00

Metals are bid hours before a quarter point is expected, and the ten-year has slipped back under 5%. Materials was one of only two American sectors to close green Tuesday, and it's the third largest of six sector positions in the even-weight strategy.

Brad Roth
September 16, 2026

TL;DR

• The Fed announces at 2:00 PM ET, with 4.00% the consensus against 3.75% now. Projections land with the statement, so the path matters more than the move.

• Gold is up 1.31% at $4,389.50 and silver 2.26%. Crude is giving back 2.32% after Tuesday's rally, with West Texas at $103.38.

• Retail sales hit at 8:30, six hours ahead of the decision. Consensus looks for 0.8% after July fell 0.6%.

Market Pulse

Futures as of 7:26 AM ET

• S&P 500 futures are up 0.25% at 7,675.25.

• Nasdaq 100 futures add 0.48%.

• Dow futures are up 0.21%.

• Russell 2000 futures are up 0.16%.

• Volatility is 18.38, down 0.90%.

• West Texas is $103.38, down 2.32%. Brent is $107.17, down 1.45%.

• Gold is $4,389.50, up 1.31%. Silver is up 2.26% and copper 0.97%.

• The two-year is 4.646% and the ten-year 4.981%. The thirty-year is 5.353%.

• The dollar index is 99.400, up 0.06%. The euro is 1.1536 and the yen 155.09.

• Bitcoin is $75,917, down 1.33%.

Tuesday's close: the S&P 500 fell 0.46%, the Dow 0.62%, the Nasdaq 100 0.65% and small caps 0.96%.

THOR Risk Gauge

Measured. Both systematic strategies came in near fully invested, at 99% and 96%, and all four American benchmarks are green. Volatility at 18.38 is easing and the ten-year has backed under 5%, taking pressure off the long end. The projections released at 2:00 carry more uncertainty than the rate move itself. That argues for respecting the event, not pressing into it.

The THOR View

Financials is 16.6% and the second largest of the six sector positions. It's also the one whose earnings answer most directly to 2:00. Bank asset yields reprice off the front end, and the two-year sits at 4.646% after easing overnight. A quarter point is close to fully discounted, so the projections are the live part of the announcement. Deposit costs reprice too, so the path the Fed sketches matters more here than the number itself. The sector fell 0.32% Tuesday, less than the broad index gave up.

Materials is 16.3% and closed Tuesday up 0.48%, one of only two American sectors to finish green. It sells into commodity prices rather than buying them, and this morning is paying for that. Silver is up 2.26%, gold 1.31% and copper 0.97%, with the dollar index barely moved at 99.400. Chemicals, packaging, mining and industrial gas answer to the dollar and global demand far more than to the funds rate. Of the six sectors held, it's the one least exposed to what gets announced this afternoon.

Retail sales arrive at 8:30, and not one of the six positions is a discretionary retailer. Healthcare sells procedures, financials sell credit, materials and industrials sell into production, utilities sell regulated power and real estate sells leases. None of that turns on a single month of receipts. Consumer discretionary was the weakest of the eleven sectors Tuesday, down 1.75% into a report consensus puts at 0.8%. The system owns trends that have confirmed, and the rest stays out.

Signal Watch

THOR Index Rotation — As of 9/15/26

Half in each benchmark, 99% invested, with the rest in bills. Tuesday separated them by sixteen hundredths of a point, and both did better than the growth index, which gave up 0.65%. Owning the two widest benchmarks keeps one industry from setting the result on a decision day.

THOR Low Volatility — As of 9/15/26

Six sectors sized between 15.2% and 16.8%, with 4.2% in bills earning 4.056% at the three-month point. The span from largest to smallest is 1.6 points, so no one sector decides the day. Materials moved up to third and was one of the two green sectors Tuesday.

THOR AdaptiveRisk Dynamic — As of 9/15/26

The actively managed strategy runs 59.0% in equities, 16.0% in commodities, 14.7% in specialty currency exposure, 5.5% in alternatives and 4.6% in rate hedging. The dollar position is the largest single line, the energy fund second and the gold strategy third at 11.0%. Two of those three sit outside the equity market, which is what a portfolio built for a tightening central bank looks like.

One Thing to Watch

The projections matter more than the decision, which is already discounted. What the Fed shows for next year will move the front end, and financials at 16.6% takes that directly. A hike paired with a signal that the work is done would reprice the group by the close.

Brad Roth / CIO, THOR Financial Technologies

This content reflects the opinions, analyses, and research of THOR Financial Technologies as of the date published. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon as the basis for any investment decision. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, and all investments involve risk. For more information, please go to: thorft.com