Gold Keeps Climbing.

July inflation lands Wednesday morning with gold near $4,400 and the volatility index still at 15. Both systematic strategies open near fully invested, with industrials the largest of the six real-economy sectors they own.

Brad Roth
August 10, 2026

TL;DR

• July CPI arrives Wednesday at 8:30 ET. After a payrolls report that went outright negative, it is the number that settles the Fed's September argument.

• Gold sits at $4,397.20 and silver added 1.01% overnight, while the volatility index reads 15.47. Two markets pricing risk, one pricing calm.

• Industrials is the largest position in the even-weight strategy at 16.4%. Friday's jobs detail was better underneath the headline than the headline itself.

Market Pulse

Futures as of 7:05 AM ET, Monday 8/10/26

• U.S. futures are mixed.

• S&P 500 futures are up 0.08%.

• Nasdaq 100 futures add 0.32%.

• Dow futures are down 0.12%.

• Russell 2000 futures are off 0.29%.

Prior close, Friday 8/7/26

• The S&P 500 closed at 7,757.64, up 0.62%, an all-time closing high.

• The Nasdaq Composite finished at 26,690.62, up 1.30%.

• The Dow ended at 54,036.93, up 0.28%.

• The Russell 2000 closed at 3,034.49, up 1.10%.

Gold trades at $4,397.20 and silver at $64.14. WTI is up 1.61% to $79.44 and natural gas adds 3.91%, after crude gave back better than 8% last week on hardening rhetoric out of Tehran. The volatility index reads 15.47.

The 10-year Treasury yield sits at 4.668% and the 2-year at 4.220%, a 44.6 basis point spread. Thirty-year money costs 5.216%. The dollar buys 158.75 yen, and Tokyo closed 2.08% higher at 66,970.22. Hong Kong added 1.05% and Shanghai 0.67%, while Europe is narrowly green. No major U.S. economic data is scheduled today.

THOR Risk Gauge

Bullish. The S&P 500 set a closing record Friday, both systematic strategies open near fully invested, and a volatility index at 15.47 describes an equity market pricing very little trouble into midweek. The metals disagree, and gold near $4,400 is not how that asset behaves when it expects an uneventful inflation report. Wednesday resolves which reading was correct.

The THOR View

The payrolls headline said the economy shed 23,000 jobs in July, the first outright decline of this cycle. Underneath it, private employers added 30,000, and the losses concentrated in local government education and retail. That distinction matters to industrials, the largest position in the even-weight strategy at 16.4%, because the sector sells into private capital budgets rather than municipal payrolls. The transports gained 0.38% Friday against 0.28% for the blue-chip average. Cheaper energy through last week reached the same position from the cost side, and this morning's move in crude starts giving a piece of that back.

Thirty-year money costs 5.216% this morning and the 10-year 4.668%, both within a basis point of Friday's close. Real estate runs 15.8% of the even-weight strategy, and it is the one position whose entire thesis prices off those two numbers rather than off an earnings cycle. Nothing today moves them. Wednesday does. June CPI ran 3.5% annually with core at 3.3%, and the gap between that and what lands at 8:30 is the whole question for the sector. Carrying it at full size into the release is a statement that the trend sets the exposure, not the calendar.

Average hourly earnings rose two cents in July, taking the annual rate to 3.2%, the softest since May 2021. Labor is the largest cost line for industrials, materials and financials, and those three sectors together run 48.9% of the even-weight strategy. Wage growth cooling while those businesses still set their own prices is the margin story of this quarter, and it is why the real-economy sectors have earned full size. Wednesday tests the other half of that equation.

Signal Watch

THOR Index Rotation — As of 8/7/26

Half in each of the two broadest American benchmarks, with 1% in bills. Splitting evenly means neither leg has to be right on its own, and Friday rewarded both.

THOR Low Volatility — As of 8/7/26

Six real-economy sectors inside a single percentage point, with 4.0% in bills. Three of them price off the long end and three off the business cycle, so one inflation number cannot reach the whole group the same way. The four at zero have not confirmed the trend the system requires.

THOR AdaptiveRisk Dynamic — As of 8/7/26

Equity is 50.8% of this actively managed strategy, with specialty currency at 19.0%, commodity 15.0% and fixed income 13.1%. Equity picked up three tenths of a point over the week while the long dollar fund and the rate hedge each gave back a tenth, leaving that pair at 28.3%. The construction still leans toward a firmer dollar and a higher long end.

One Thing to Watch

Core CPI at 8:30 Wednesday. June's ran 3.3% annually and shelter is its single largest component, which is why a cooler core takes pressure off the long end and reaches real estate at 15.8% before anything else in the even-weight strategy. A hot one does the reverse, and the 5.216% thirty-year is where the answer shows up first.

From the same desk — THOR Signals reads the regime on the whole market and any name your clients hold, three horizons, every market evening, with the price where each read turns. See it at thorsignals.com

Brad Roth / CIO, THOR Financial Technologies

This content reflects the opinions, analyses, and research of THOR Financial Technologies as of the date published. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon as the basis for any investment decision. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, and all investments involve risk. For more information, please go to: thorft.com