Hormuz Stays Shut, Tech Catches a Bid

TL;DR

Nasdaq futures are up nearly 0.9% Friday morning. Texas Instruments posted a strong earnings beat. Tech bounced after a rough session Thursday.
WTI is at $96.95, up 1.1%. The Hormuz logjam isn't clearing — the Dow CEO put the timeline at close to a year. The Dow is reflecting that this morning.
Holdings are unchanged going into the weekend. THOR Low Volatility runs seven sectors. THOR Index Rotation is near fully deployed across two broad indexes.

Market Pulse

U.S. futures are mixed Friday morning.

As of 6:59 AM EDT:

Dow futures are down 0.3%.
S&P 500 futures are up 0.1%.
Nasdaq 100 futures are up 0.9%.
Russell 2000 futures are roughly flat.

Texas Instruments is up nearly 20% pre-market after a strong earnings beat, the primary driver of Nasdaq strength this morning. The tech sector fell roughly 1.5% Thursday. Friday's futures are recovering most of it.

WTI crude is at $96.95, up 1.1%. The Israel-Lebanon ceasefire was extended three weeks overnight — a mild positive on the geopolitical score. The Strait of Hormuz is a different story: the Dow CEO said Thursday that clearing the logjam will take close to a year. Supply disruption isn't a spike anymore. It's a baseline. Gold pulled back to $4,692, down 0.7% after recent strength. Bitcoin is at $78,224, up 0.65%.

The 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.32%. The 2-year is at 3.83%. VIX is 18.8, down 2.6% — still elevated, but cooling off a rough week. EUR/USD at 1.171.

THOR Risk Gauge

Both systems are near fully deployed. THOR Index Rotation is split across two broad indexes with minimal cash. THOR Low Volatility runs seven of ten sectors. The gauge reads broadly bullish. VIX pulling back toward 18 is the clearest sign that the market is treating Iran as a known variable rather than an active shock. Strong semiconductor earnings this morning back up the tech position — the AI infrastructure thesis didn't break on Thursday's selloff. Oil at $97 on an entrenched Hormuz disruption adds friction to industrial and transportation-heavy parts of the economy. The combined equity exposure is the highest it's been this cycle, and Friday morning is holding in positive territory for the book.

The THOR View

Tech was the story Thursday and it's the story again Friday.

Texas Instruments is up nearly 20% pre-market after a strong quarter. The tech sector sold off roughly 1.5% on Thursday as Microsoft's session pulled the group lower. Friday is recovering. The technology sector sits at the highest single-sector weight in THOR Low Volatility, and the Nasdaq 100 is one of two indexes in THOR Index Rotation. A strong semiconductor quarter confirms the AI infrastructure build-out is holding. Tech was already there. The earnings are backing it up.

The Dow's 0.3% decline this morning is the Hormuz story in numbers. Transportation stocks fell nearly 4% on Thursday — the worst-performing sector that session. Dow composition is heavy with industrial and trade-exposed names, the category Hormuz hits hardest. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 carry the book at roughly equal weight. The Dow doesn't.

Energy stays at zero in THOR Low Volatility with WTI at $97. Oil is up 1.1% this morning on sustained supply risk. The system doesn't trade geopolitical premiums as directional trend. An oil price driven by a blocked shipping lane isn't the same read as an oil price driven by demand expansion. The sector hasn't earned its way back in.

Real Estate holds at 14% alongside the other active sectors. The 10-year at 4.32% is a direct headwind. Rate-sensitive names compress at these levels. Data center REITs carry an AI infrastructure demand tailwind that partially offsets the rate pressure. It's not a perfect offset, but it's real. Rate direction from here matters more for Real Estate than any other position in the current book.

Signal Watch

THOR Index Rotation — as of 4/24/26

Position	Weight	Signal	Status
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)	49.9%	Risk-On	🟢
S&P 500 (SPY)	49.6%	Risk-On	🟢
Dow (DIA)	0%	Risk-Off	🔴
Cash + T-Bills	0.5%	—	—

Two indexes near full deployment. Dow remains at zero. Cash is negligible.

THOR Low Volatility — as of 4/24/26

Sector	Weight	Signal	Status
Utilities (XLU)	14.2%	Risk-On	🟢
Industrials (XLI)	14.1%	Risk-On	🟢
Technology (XLK)	14.0%	Risk-On	🟢
Real Estate (XLRE)	14.0%	Risk-On	🟢
Materials (XLB)	13.9%	Risk-On	🟢
Financials (XLF)	13.8%	Risk-On	🟢
Consumer Disc (XLY)	13.8%	Risk-On	🟢
Energy (XLE)	0%	Risk-Off	🔴
Consumer Staples (XLP)	0%	Risk-Off	🔴
Healthcare (XLV)	0%	Risk-Off	🔴
Cash + T-Bills	2.3%	—	—

Seven sectors, three out, 2.3% in reserves. Utilities leads on weight this week. Energy stays at zero with oil near $97. Consumer Staples and Healthcare haven't confirmed.

One Thing to Watch

Real Estate sits at 14% in THOR Low Volatility. The 10-year is at 4.32% and hasn't moved meaningfully this week. Any sustained upward pressure from here — oil-driven inflation expectations, Iran supply costs feeding into CPI — lands directly on that sector's relative performance. If the long end moves higher, Real Estate is the first position in the current book that faces real pressure.

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Brad Roth / CIO, THOR Financial Technologies

This content reflects the opinions, analyses, and research of THOR Financial Technologies as of the date published. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon as the basis for any investment decision. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, and all investments involve risk. For more information, please go to: thorft.com