Inflation Lands at Eight-Thirty

Brad Roth
May 13, 2026

TL;DR

• US equity futures lean green ahead of the open with the Nasdaq leading. S&P 500 futures up 0.22%, Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.76%, Russell 2000 futures up 0.25%, Dow futures off 0.27%. April CPI releases at 8:30 AM ET, the day's binary moment.

• The 2-year sits at 3.988%, the 10-year at 4.463%, the 30-year at 5.03%. Gold hits $4,703 per ounce on the morning at fresh highs. WTI runs near $102 after yesterday's reversal back through one hundred.

• Healthcare, Energy, and Consumer Staples carry zero weight in the cyclical lineup. Three of the broad market's deepest defensive sleeves, none in the lineup today.

Market Pulse

Futures as of 7:05 AM EDT, May 13, 2026. Source: Yahoo Finance, cross-checked CNBC pre-markets.

• US equity futures lean green ahead of the open, with the Nasdaq leading and the Dow off.

• S&P 500 futures are up 0.22%.

• Nasdaq 100 futures are up 0.76%.

• Dow futures are off 0.27%.

• Russell 2000 futures are up 0.25%.

WTI crude is at $102.11, broadly flat overnight after yesterday's 3.83% reversal back through one hundred. Brent sits at $107.94, up 0.16%. Natural gas is off 0.98%.

Gold is at $4,703.60 per ounce, up 0.36% and pressing fresh highs. The metal works against firmer rates, with the 30-year holding 5.03% and the 10-year at 4.463%.

The 10-year Treasury yield sits at 4.463%. The 2-year is at 3.988%, a basis point under the four handle. The 30-year holds at 5.03%. The 2s10s curve sits at +48 basis points.

VIX is at 17.94, broadly flat. Bitcoin trades near $80,650, off 0.22% on the morning. EUR/USD sits at 1.171, off 0.21%. USD/JPY runs 157.81, up 0.13%.

April CPI releases at 8:30 AM ET.

THOR Risk Gauge

Both systems sit fully deployed into a known data-point morning. THOR Index Rotation runs the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 at near equal weight with under one percent in cash. THOR Low Volatility carries seven cyclical sectors at roughly 14% each. The gauge reads bullish on positioning. The backdrop holds the same setup that carried into yesterday's session: vol modest at 17.94, the curve positive at +48 basis points, crude near $102, gold pressing fresh highs at $4,703. Futures lean modestly green with the Nasdaq carrying the move and the Dow off. The cushion from here runs in the cyclical breadth across the seven active sectors, with no defensive sleeve underneath.

The THOR View

April CPI at 8:30 is the binary moment of the morning. The 2-year sits at 3.988%, a single basis point under the four handle, and reprices first in either direction. The setup carries a curve at +48 basis points, the 10-year at 4.463%, and the 30-year holding 5.03%. A hot read pushes the 2-year through four and flattens the curve into a defensive shape, the kind of move that tests the rate-sensitive parts of any equity book. A cool read pulls the front end lower and runs as a tailwind across the same sleeve. The cyclical lineup carries the equity exposure across either outcome, with seven sectors at roughly 14% each and equal-weight construction as the structural ballast.

Healthcare sits at zero in the cyclical lineup. The largest defensive sleeve in the broad market by GICS weight, and the structural pricing-power story across every drug-pricing and election-year debate of the past decade. The position carries zero today on read, not on conviction. Drug-pricing reform headlines have run through the sector across the spring, the GLP-1 cohort has cooled from the highs, and hospital margins carry their own labor and Medicaid-rate questions. The defensive premium the sector typically captures into a curve-flattening setup has been the thinnest in cycles. The system has held Healthcare at zero since early March, and the construction has not changed through three Iran headlines, two payrolls reports, and a 30-year touching 5.00%.

Gold pressing $4,703 on the morning is the cross-asset read worth flagging. The metal sits at fresh highs against a firmer dollar overnight and a long end holding 5.03%. The textbook setup for a gold rally pairs falling rates with a softer dollar. The current move runs against both. Central-bank buying, geopolitical premium on the Middle East, and the deficit-versus-rate-cuts question are the three drivers worth naming. The cyclical lineup holds no direct gold exposure across either system, and the breadth across the seven active sectors carries the cycle bet through to the 8:30 release.

Signal Watch

THOR Index Rotation — As of 5/12/26

Two indexes at near equal weight, cash under one percent. The Nasdaq carries the heavier of the two weights into a session leaning growth ahead of the data. The Dow remains absent, the broad index with the heaviest healthcare, staples, and slow-growth industrials weighting, the same cross-section the cyclical lineup is also out of.

THOR Low Volatility — As of 5/12/26

Seven sectors active at roughly equal weight. The three at zero are Energy, Healthcare, and Consumer Staples, the parts of the broad market most often used as defensive ballast. None sit in the lineup, and the equal-weight construction across the active seven holds the cyclical exposure in their place.

THOR AdaptiveRisk Dynamic — As of 5/12/26

The AdaptiveRisk Dynamic sleeve runs 62% equity, 22% commodity, 9% specialty FX, and 7% fixed income across roughly thirty positions. The gold strategy sits at the top of the lineup at 12.1% and anchors the commodity exposure into a session pressing fresh metals highs. The short-yen position carries the macro view against a firmer dollar overnight, and the rate hedge works directly against the 30-year holding above 5%.

One Thing to Watch

The 2-year reaction to April CPI at 8:30. The front end sits a basis point under the four handle and reprices first in either direction. A hot read pushes it through four and flattens the curve. A cool read pulls it lower and steepens. The cyclical lineup carries the equity exposure across either outcome, and the volatility complex at 17.94 sets the bar for how much the data shifts the rate stack into the open.

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Brad Roth / CIO, THOR Financial Technologies

This content reflects the opinions, analyses, and research of THOR Financial Technologies as of the date published. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon as the basis for any investment decision. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, and all investments involve risk. For more information, please go to: thorft.com