It's Masters Sunday and Nothing Signed

TL;DR

The S&P 500 gained 3.6% and the Nasdaq surged 4.7% as a fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire knocked crude roughly 15% off its war-premium peak. Both THOR systems held at a combined 21% equity exposure, with the rest in cash and T-Bills. Weekend talks in Islamabad ended without a final agreement, and the Strait of Hormuz remains partially blocked.

Week in Review

The ceasefire headline owned the tape. A U.S.-Iran de-escalation triggered the sharpest relief rally since the conflict began, pulling capital back into growth and cyclical sectors.

Weekly closes:

S&P 500: 6,816.89, up 3.6%
Nasdaq: 22,902.89, up 4.7%
Dow Jones: 47,916.57, up 3.0%

Communication Services led the week at +5.9%, followed by Consumer Discretionary at +5.8% and Technology at +4.8%. Energy was the clear loser at -4.1% as crude gave back a large chunk of its war premium. WTI and Brent both fell to roughly $95 per barrel. Gold cooled to around $4,750 after failing to hold $4,800. Bitcoin traded near $71,900. The 10-year Treasury yield settled at 4.31%, down about 4 basis points.

Friday closed mixed. The S&P slipped 0.1%, the Nasdaq added 0.4%, and the Dow lost 0.6%. After four days of buying, the tape couldn't extend into the weekend.

Allocation Changes

No changes this week.

THOR Index Rotation remains at nearly 100% cash and T-Bills. THOR Low Volatility holds Utilities at 20.5% and Energy at 18.7%, with 59.1% in cash. Combined equity exposure across both portfolios is roughly 21%.

The signals didn't flip despite a 3.6% weekly gain in equities and a double-digit decline in crude. Positioning entered the week defensive and stayed defensive.

The Bigger Picture

The market priced in a ceasefire. The ceasefire hasn't been signed.

Weekend reporting from Islamabad confirms no final agreement was reached. The Strait of Hormuz, which normally handles about 16 million barrels of daily crude and condensate exports, saw flows collapse to 1.2 million barrels per day during the week ending 4/6. Another 3.7 million barrels per day were rerouted around the strait. The U.S. has been clearing mines, but tanker traffic hasn't normalized, and ships still need Iranian approval to transit.

Crude futures dropped 15%, but the physical market hasn't caught up. Consumers won't see lower energy prices anytime soon, and inflation expectations remain elevated. Tariff pass-through risk adds another layer. The market is sitting between two forces: geopolitical de-escalation hopes on one side, sticky inflation and trade friction on the other. Last week's winners were growth sectors. If the ceasefire collapses or Hormuz re-closes, that rotation reverses fast.

PPI prints Tuesday. Fed speakers are scattered through the week. The IMF releases its World Economic Outlook on Wednesday. Any of those could shift the tone, but the real catalyst is whether the ceasefire holds.

THOR Risk Gauge

Both systems are running their most defensive positioning in months. THOR Index Rotation holds essentially no equities. THOR Low Volatility limits exposure to two sectors, Utilities and Energy, with the majority in cash. Combined equity allocation is around 21%, tilted entirely toward defensive names with zero growth exposure. None of the signals flipped during a week where the S&P gained 3.6%. The posture reflects a market where oil stress has eased on paper but hasn't resolved physically, and where inflation data keeps pushing in the wrong direction.

Signal Watch

THOR Index Rotation
As of 4/10/26

Index	Weight	Signal	Status
S&P 500 (SPY)	0.0%	Risk-Off	🔴
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)	0.0%	Risk-Off	🔴
Dow (DIA)	0.0%	Risk-Off	🔴
Cash + T-Bills (BIL)	~100%	-	-

THOR Low Volatility
As of 4/10/26

Sector	Weight	Signal	Status
Utilities	20.5%	Risk-On	🟢
Energy	18.7%	Risk-On	🟢
Materials	0.0%	Risk-Off	🔴
Consumer Staples	0.0%	Risk-Off	🔴
Financials	0.0%	Risk-Off	🔴
Healthcare	0.0%	Risk-Off	🔴
Industrials	0.0%	Risk-Off	🔴
Technology	0.0%	Risk-Off	🔴
Consumer Discretionary	0.0%	Risk-Off	🔴
Real Estate	0.0%	Risk-Off	🔴
Cash + T-Bills	59.1%	-	-

Weekend Reading

🎙️ Behind the Ticker: $150B Built on One Idea: Why Cap-Weighted Indexing Is Broken with Rob Arnott, Research Affiliates (4/5/26, 32 min). Arnott walks through the structural case against cap-weighted indexing from a valuation and portfolio construction perspective.

Listen on Spotify

What's Next for Oil Markets After the Ceasefire Agreement? (CSIS) - The best read on the physical oil market this week. Explains why Hormuz exports collapsed from 16.3 million barrels per day to 1.2 million, why tanker traffic hasn't normalized, and why consumer relief will lag even as crude futures fall.

Now what? The limits of tariff-driven economic statecraft after IEEPA (Brookings) - Useful framework for why trade friction may persist longer than firms expect. The legal tool changed, but the policy direction didn't.

Peril and possibility: Collapsing old order, emerging disorder, or new order? (Brookings) - Fiona Hill's essay on why trade, security, sanctions, and supply chain shocks keep arriving simultaneously.

Quote of the Week

"You can't predict. You can prepare." - Howard Marks

Brad Roth / CIO, THOR Financial Technologies

This content reflects the opinions, analyses, and research of THOR Financial Technologies as of the date published. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon as the basis for any investment decision. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, and all investments involve risk. For more information, please go to: thorft.com