Markets surge on de-escalation signals

TL;DR

Global markets are surging on reports that Trump may end the Iran conflict within two to three weeks. Oil is pulling back from triple digits and futures are up over 1% across the board. The question now is whether a ceasefire changes the energy supply picture fast enough to matter.

Market Pulse

Futures as of 6:50 AM ET

S&P 500 futures up 76 points (+1.2%)

Dow futures up 529 (+1.2%)

Nasdaq 100 futures up 286 (+1.2%)

Yesterday's session was the best since May, with the S&P closing up 2.9% and the Nasdaq gaining 3.8%.

The catalyst: Trump stated U.S. strikes on Iran could wrap up in two to three weeks, with a public address scheduled for tomorrow evening. Iran's president has signaled willingness to negotiate. After five weeks of conflict that disrupted the Strait of Hormuz and pushed oil above $100, the market is pricing in resolution.

Brent crude dropped 4.4% to $99.44. WTI pulled back to around $98. Gas hit $4/gallon nationally - the first time since 2022.

Gold is holding strong at $4,573 (+1.6%), suggesting the safe-haven bid hasn't fully unwound despite the optimism. Bitcoin is near $119,000. The 10-year yield sits at 4.35%, down from 4.44% late last week.

Asia led the charge overnight. South Korea's Kospi surged 8.1%. Japan's Nikkei gained 5.2%. Europe is following - DAX up 1.1%, FTSE up nearly 1%.

THOR Risk Gauge

Cautious

Relief was had, uncertainty still largely remains in the details.

The THOR View

Five weeks of war anxiety had driven oil above $100, hammered consumer sentiment, and pushed the VIX toward 30. The market was priced for duration. Now the narrative is shifting to resolution, and equities are responding violently.

The positioning question is more nuanced than "ceasefire = buy everything."

Energy is the story within the story. Oil dropping from $103 to $98 is a relief trade for consumers and airlines. But $98 isn't $70. The Hormuz disruption exposed how fragile global energy supply chains remain. Insurance rates for tanker routes are still elevated. Qatar's LNG restart isn't instant. Even with a ceasefire, the energy infrastructure rebuild creates a price floor well above pre-conflict levels.

THOR Low Volatility's Energy allocation has climbed to 17.8% - the highest single-sector weight. That's a function of sustained momentum in the energy complex, not a directional bet on the war's outcome. If oil stays elevated post-ceasefire (which supply data suggests it will), energy continues to be relevant. If it collapses, the system will adjust at the next index calculation.

On the index side, the Nasdaq remaining off is worth noting on a day when tech futures are up 1.2%. A few good days doesn't change the signal. In fact during volatility, you get vol on both the upside and downside. The question remains is this temporary or a real reversal, time will tell. Tech rallied 3.8% yesterday too - but it's still underperforming the Dow and S&P over any meaningful time frame. Until the signal flips, the system stays out.

We detect regime changes, we don't predict them. The system responds to what the data shows - and right now there's still a lot of uncertainty to work through before anyone declares this resolved.

Signal Watch

THOR Index Rotation - Holdings as of March 31, 2026

THOR Low Volatility - Holdings as of March 31, 2026

One Thing to Watch

Trump's public address tomorrow evening. The market is pricing in a resolution timeline. If the speech delivers specifics - troop withdrawal schedules, Hormuz reopening commitments - this rally has legs. If it's vague or conditional, oil rebounds and the relief trade stalls.

Brad Roth
CIO, THOR Financial Technologies

This content reflects the opinions, analyses, and research of THOR Financial Technologies as of the date published. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon as the basis for any investment decision. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, and all investments involve risk. For more information, please go to: thorft.com