Oil Crosses $105 as Iran War Enters Month Two

TL;DR

Oil surged past $105/barrel as Iran denied ceasefire talks with the
U.S., pushing the Middle East conflict into its second month. Equity
futures are sliding across the board with a clear "dash to cash"
emerging globally. THOR's energy-heavy positioning in the Low Volatility
fund and Dow/S&P concentration in Index Rotation are exactly where
the signal says to be right now.

Market Pulse

Futures as of 7:03 AM ET

• S&P 500 futures: 6,593 (-47, -0.71%)

• Dow futures: 46,405 (-306, -0.66%)

• Nasdaq futures: 24,170 (-198, -0.81%)

• Russell 2000 futures: 2,525 (-27, -1.05%)

Rates & Commodities - 10-Year
Treasury: 4.38% (+5 bps) - yields climbing as bonds sell off
alongside stocks

WTI Crude: $93.43 (+3.4%) - Brent crude above $105

Gold: $4,440 (-2.5%) - profit-taking after recent run to all-time highs

Silver: $68.30 (-6.0%) - sharp pullback tracking gold's correction

Bitcoin: ~$69,500 - holding near $70K despite risk-off tone

Natural Gas: $2.92 (-1.0%)

What's driving it: Iran formally denied any
backchannel talks with the U.S. this morning, dashing hopes for a
near-term ceasefire. The conflict is approaching its one-month
anniversary with no diplomatic off-ramp in sight. Brent crude punched
above $105, a level that starts to bite consumer spending and corporate
margins. European markets are down over 1% across the board, Asia closed
lower, and the "dash to cash" narrative is gaining traction.

THOR Risk Gauge

Bullish

Both funds remain heavily invested with 97%+ equity exposure. The system is leaning into the energy/value rotation - not hiding from volatility. Nasdaq remains risk-off, which keeps the gauge from pushing higher.

The THOR View

This is the kind of environment our system was built for. Oil above
$100 is creating winners and losers, and the signal is on the right side
of that divide.

Look at where the Low Volatility fund is positioned: Energy is the
largest sector weight at 17%. Materials and Industrials together account
for another 29%. These are the sectors that benefit when commodity
prices spike and the real economy matters more than growth multiples.
Meanwhile, Technology sits at less than half a percent. Financials and
Real Estate are similarly minimal. The system moved away from
rate-sensitive and multiple-dependent sectors before this move
accelerated.

On the Index Rotation side, the near-equal split between the Dow and
S&P 500 tells you something important: the system sees broad equity
strength but prefers the value tilt the Dow provides. The Nasdaq at
0.54% - effectively zero - is a clear statement. When oil is surging and
geopolitical risk is elevated, mega-cap tech concentration is not where
you want to be.

Gold pulling back 2.5% after its parabolic run does not change the
structural bid underneath it. That is profit-taking, not a reversal. The
system does not chase precious metals directly, but the same forces
driving gold - inflation expectations, geopolitical uncertainty, central
bank buying - are the forces making our energy and materials positioning
work.

The real question is whether $105 Brent becomes $120 Brent. If Iran
continues to refuse dialogue, that is not an unreasonable scenario. And
that is exactly the kind of regime where value and commodity exposure
outperforms.

Signal Watch

THOR Index Rotation (as of 3/25/26)

THOR Low Volatility (as of 3/25/26)

One Thing to Watch

Weekly jobless claims drop at 8:30 AM ET. In normal times, this is a
second-tier print. Right now, it matters. If the labor market is
softening while oil is spiking, the Fed gets boxed into a stagflationary
corner - too much inflation to cut, too much weakness to hold. Watch for
any upside surprise in claims. That combination - rising oil, weakening
jobs - is the one scenario where even our well-positioned portfolio
would need to adapt quickly.

Brad Roth CIO, THOR Financial Technologies

This content reflects the opinions, analyses, and research of
THOR Financial Technologies as of the date published. It is provided for
informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute
investment advice and should not be relied upon as the basis for any
investment decision. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results,
and all investments involve risk. For more information, please go to:
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