Producer Prices Are Up 6.3% in a Year, and Somebody Has to Pay Them

October PPI lands at 8:30 with the ten-year at 5.14%. Consumer staples, one of seven sectors in the even-weight strategy, decide who pays the higher costs, and their earnings move with prices in a way a bond coupon can't.

Brad Roth
November 13, 2026

TL;DR

• The ten-year climbed through 5% Thursday and sits at 5.137% this morning, with the 30-year at 5.47%. October producer prices land at 8:30, expected up 0.4% on the month and 6.6% on the year, from 6.3% in September.

• Staples companies pay their suppliers' prices first and set shelf prices second. Their revenue rises with prices, which a fixed bond coupon can't do.

• Futures are green after a red Thursday. Brent is $96.17.

Market Pulse

Futures as of 7:12 AM ET, commodities as of 7:18 AM ET, yields and currencies as of 7:25 AM ET

• S&P 500 futures are up 0.30% at 7,638.

• Nasdaq 100 futures are up 0.25% at 28,454.75.

• Dow futures are up 0.16% at 52,472.

• Russell 2000 futures are up 0.22% at 2,813.40.

Thursday was red almost everywhere. The S&P 500 fell 0.35%, the Nasdaq 100 0.32%, the Dow 0.38% and the Russell 2000 1.64%. Energy was the only sector to close green, up 1.51%, and utilities finished flat.

• West Texas is $88.66, down 0.09%. Brent is $96.17, up 0.37%.

• Gold is $3,899.62, up 0.37% after a 2.8% drop Thursday. Copper is down 0.63% at $6.16.

• The ten-year is 5.137%, up 3.5 basis points. The two-year is 4.857%, down 0.7, and the 30-year is 5.470%.

• Euro/dollar is 1.1047. The dollar buys 160.06 yen. VIX futures are 18.52, down 1.14%. Bitcoin is $69,307.

• October PPI lands at 8:30. Fed speakers Collins, Logan, Bowman, Daly and Jefferson follow through the day.

THOR Risk Gauge

Neutral. Futures are bouncing and VIX futures eased to 18.52. Against that, the ten-year is above 5% and fed funds futures price a December hike near 90%, with producer prices and five Fed speakers still ahead.

The THOR View

Producer prices are the bill that shows up before the shelf price changes. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports October PPI at 8:30, and economists expect 0.4% for the month and 6.6% for the year, after a 1.3% jump in September. A grocery or household brand pays those costs for ingredients, packaging and freight first. Then it decides how much to pass along. Scale and brand names give the biggest staples companies room to do that, and demand for basics moves little, since nobody skips laundry detergent to wait out an inflation report. A cooler number gives their margins room. A hot one gets passed down the aisle.

Rates are why that pricing power matters more this week. The ten-year went from under 5% Thursday morning to 5.137% now, and the largest long-Treasury fund fell 1.48% on the day. Staples are dividend stocks, so a bond paying 5% competes with them for the same income buyer. That pressure is real, and staples gave up 0.43% Thursday, less than a third of that fund's drop. But a coupon is fixed for the life of the bond. A staples company reprices a box of cereal whenever its costs move, so its revenue, and the dividend behind it, can grow with the same inflation that's pushing yields up.

That thread runs through four of the seven sectors in the even-weight lineup. Utilities collect on rates that regulators reset, real estate re-leases space at today's rents, and healthcare and staples sell what households buy whatever the price tag says. Each has a way to grow revenue alongside inflation. With producer prices running above 6% and the long bond at 5.47%, those four sectors are full of companies that get to name their price.

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Signal Watch

THOR Index Rotation — As of 11/12/26

Small caps took Thursday's rate jump hardest, down 1.64%, since more of their debt floats with short-term rates. The large companies in the Dow and the S&P 500 mostly borrowed long and fixed, and both indexes fell less than four-tenths of a point.

THOR Low Volatility — As of 11/12/26

Utilities finished Thursday flat while the largest long-Treasury fund lost 1.48%, since regulated rates reset with the cost of capital over time. Materials was the weakest of the seven, down 1.28%, on the same day gold fell 2.8%.

THOR AdaptiveRisk Dynamic — As of 11/12/26

Seven of every ten dollars sit in stocks, and bonds, alternatives and commodities take most of the rest at 11%, 10% and 5%. On Thursday the energy fund rose with crude and the anti-beta fund gained 1.77% while the S&P 500 fell.

THOR Conservative Risk Dynamic — As of 11/12/26

Stocks are just under half at 47%. Alternatives add 23%, the rate hedge 12%, and the 18% in cash earns bill rates near 4.2% while it waits.

One Thing to Watch

Core PPI at 8:30. Economists expect 0.3% for October after 0.7% in September. A number at or under that eases the squeeze on staples margins. A second hot month would test how much more shoppers will absorb before they trade down.

Brad Roth / CIO, THOR Financial Technologies

This content reflects the opinions, analyses, and research of THOR Financial Technologies as of the date published. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon as the basis for any investment decision. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, and all investments involve risk. For more information, please go to: thorft.com