Tariffs at Midnight and $112 Oil

TL;DR

New tariffs hit Canada, Mexico, and China overnight while WTI crude holds above $112 on Strait of Hormuz supply fears. Futures are barely moving off a rough Thursday session. THOR Index Rotation is fully in T-Bills. THOR Low Volatility holds only Energy and Utilities alongside a 60% cash position.

Market Pulse

Futures as of 7:12 AM ET

S&P 500: 6,626 (implied open +5, +0.1%)
Nasdaq 100: 24,290 (implied open +77, +0.3%)
Dow Jones: 46,664 (implied open -50, -0.1%)
Russell 2000: 2,539 (implied open -11, -0.4%)

Muted open after Thursday's selloff (S&P -1.2%, Nasdaq -1.6%, Dow -1.3%). The long Easter weekend gave traders time to sit with the tariff news, and the early read is surprisingly calm.

Overnight:

WTI crude: ~$112/barrel on Strait of Hormuz disruption fears
Gold: $4,645/oz, near all-time highs
Bitcoin: ~$67,000, tight range
Treasuries: Flight-to-safety flows keeping yields compressed

Tariffs (effective midnight): 25% on Canadian and Mexican goods. 10% on Chinese imports. 100% on Australian pharmaceuticals. Canada fired back immediately with tariffs on $20B in US goods, with another $85B package in three weeks. China responded with 15% on US agricultural exports.

THOR Risk Gauge

Bearish

Three-front tariff escalation, crude above $112 on Hormuz fears, and retaliation already underway. Index Rotation is fully in T-Bills. Low Volatility holds two defensive sectors and a 60% cash position. Nothing in the current data argues for adding risk here.

The THOR View

Oil above $112 is normally a headwind for equities, but Energy is one of the few sectors benefiting from the Hormuz tension right now. THOR Low Volatility holds Energy and Utilities, with the rest in T-Bills earning yield while the tape sorts itself out.

Index Rotation is at 100% T-Bills. When the three major indexes are getting whipsawed by tariff headlines and geopolitical risk, that positioning speaks for itself.

The tariff math: 25% on your two largest trading partners plus 10% on China covers roughly $1.5 trillion in annual imports. Canada's retaliation is live. China's agricultural tariffs target $22 billion in US farm exports. Futures shrugged overnight, but structural trade friction compounds rather than resolves quickly.

This stays a headline risk until it hits margins. Q1 reporting season starts mid-April, and forward guidance will be the tell.

Signal Watch

THOR Index Rotation

As of 4/6/26

Index	Weight	Signal	Status
Dow (DIA)	0.0%	Risk-Off	🔴
S&P 500 (SPY)	0.0%	Risk-Off	🔴
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)	0.0%	Risk-Off	🔴
Cash + T-Bills (BIL)	99.8%	—	—

THOR Low Volatility

As of 4/6/26

Sector	Weight	Signal
Energy (XLE)	19.33%	Risk-On 🟢
Utilities (XLU)	20.18%	Risk-On 🟢
Consumer Discretionary (XLY)	0.0%	Risk-Off 🔴
Consumer Staples (XLP)	0.0%	Risk-Off 🔴
Financials (XLF)	0.0%	Risk-Off 🔴
Health Care (XLV)	0.0%	Risk-Off 🔴
Industrials (XLI)	0.0%	Risk-Off 🔴
Materials (XLB)	0.0%	Risk-Off 🔴
Real Estate (XLRE)	0.0%	Risk-Off 🔴
Technology (XLK)	0.0%	Risk-Off 🔴
Cash + T-Bills (BIL)	60.5%	—

One Thing to Watch

CPI on Friday. Tariffs and $112 oil both push prices higher. March data will be the first real read on whether that inflationary impulse is reaching consumers. That print, combined with Thursday's GDP revision, sets the tone for the rest of April.

Brad Roth
CIO, THOR Financial Technologies

This content reflects the opinions, analyses, and research of THOR Financial Technologies as of the date published. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon as the basis for any investment decision. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, and all investments involve risk. For more information, please go to: thorft.com