The Airstrikes Came. Oil Fell Anyway

Fresh U.S. strikes on Iran overnight, and crude gave back most of yesterday's spike instead of running. The market is reading the Gulf as a headline rather than a supply shock, and both systematic strategies stay near fully invested in the real-economy trends already working.

Brad Roth
July 09, 2026

TL;DR

• The U.S. launched new strikes on Iran overnight and Tehran answered by targeting Gulf states, the sharpest escalation since the ceasefire broke. Crude opened lower anyway, down about one percent, and equity futures are green with semiconductors leading the bounce.

• The largest position in the even-weight strategy is the electricity sector, not a chip name or a bank. It looks defensive, but it is really the power feeding the same AI buildout the market keeps paying up for.

• Both systematic strategies open near fully invested across all three major benchmarks and seven real-economy sectors. Weekly jobless claims are due this morning, expected to creep higher toward 218,000.

Market Pulse

As of 7:15 AM ET, July 9. Sources: CNBC, Bloomberg, Investing.com, cross-checked.

• S&P 500 futures are up about 0.2%.

• Nasdaq 100 futures add about 0.6%, led by the chip names.

• Dow futures sit near flat.

• Russell 2000 futures are near flat.

• The 10-year Treasury yield holds near 4.55%, the 2-year near 4.18%, steady after Wednesday's jump.

• WTI crude slips about 1% to near $72.80. Brent trades near $77.15.

• Gold eases toward $4,150 as yields firm.

• The VIX sits near 17 after a 16.90 close.

• Bitcoin trades near $62,800. EUR/USD is near 1.14.

Overnight the U.S. put fresh strikes on Iran and Tehran answered by targeting Gulf states, the sharpest escalation since the truce collapsed. Crude opened lower anyway, and the growth complex that sold off twice earlier in the week firmed. Weekly jobless claims land this morning, expected near 218,000 against 215,000 the prior week.

THOR Risk Gauge

Both systematic strategies open near fully invested across all three major benchmarks and seven real-economy sectors, and the trends that carried the first half are intact. The overnight escalation in the Gulf pushed crude lower rather than higher and left equity futures green, a sign the market is pricing the conflict as contained rather than a threat to supply. The read stays constructive with one eye on whether the Strait of Hormuz headlines turn into an actual disruption.

The THOR View

The largest position in the even-weight strategy is not a chip name and not a bank. It is the electricity sector, near a seventh of the mix. That looks defensive, the classic bond proxy investors buy for somewhere quiet to hide, but it is not held for that reason. The AI buildout the market keeps paying up for runs on power, and the data centers filling with the same semiconductors that led this morning's bounce need growing amounts of it. The electricity sector has quietly become an infrastructure position on the same trade as the chips, without the valuation the chips carry. When the growth complex wobbled twice last week, the power names barely moved.

Energy is the counterpoint, and today makes the case. Crude jumped roughly six percent yesterday when the ceasefire broke, then gave most of it back this morning even as the U.S. put fresh strikes on Iran. Moves like that trace to the Strait of Hormuz and the OPEC supply calendar, not to demand or a durable trend, and the system reads them as noise rather than a signal to act on. That is why the sector sits at zero despite being the one corner of the market that was green on the worst day of the week. A barrel that jumps on one headline and falls on a bigger one has not earned a position.

On the index side, the construction is deliberately plain. The strategy spreads near-equal weight across the blue-chip average, the broad market, and the growth benchmark, roughly a third in each, so no single index decides the outcome. That mattered this week, with the three pulling in different directions: the blue chips set records while the growth benchmark took two chip-driven hits. Technology is still the top sector in the even-weight strategy, but capped near a sixth of the mix, one slice of ten rather than the mega-cap concentration doing the repricing.

Signal Watch

THOR Index Rotation — As of 7/8/26

All three benchmarks read risk-on at near-equal weight, with only a token cash position. It is a bet that the broad U.S. market is healthy without a call on which corner of it leads.

THOR Low Volatility — As of 7/8/26

The seven active sectors span the real economy, from power and property to banks, industry, and materials, all reading risk-on. The three at zero are the market's classic defensives and its most headline-driven commodity, none of which has confirmed a trend the system will act on.

THOR AdaptiveRisk Dynamic — As of 7/8/26

The mix runs roughly seventy percent equity, with a mid-teens fixed-income anchor, a high-single-digit currency position, and a bitcoin sleeve near six percent. The equity side clusters in the semiconductor and large-cap growth names that led this morning, while the long-duration Treasury and short-yen positions carry the macro hedge against the same moves driving rates and the dollar.

One Thing to Watch

Weekly jobless claims land this morning, expected to creep higher toward 218,000. A softer labor market is what pulled the odds of another Fed move lower, and that path runs straight through the rate-sensitive positions in the even-weight strategy, the power and property sectors that together make up better than a quarter of it. A claims number that keeps drifting higher would reinforce the easing case those positions lean on.

Brad Roth / CIO, THOR Financial Technologies

This content reflects the opinions, analyses, and research of THOR Financial Technologies as of the date published. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon as the basis for any investment decision. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, and all investments involve risk. For more information, please go to: thorft.com