The Bond Market Relaxed Overnight. Inflation Data Decides If It Was Right

Brad Roth
August 12, 2026

TL;DR

• Crude stalled at $83.40 this morning after running roughly 8% across Friday and Monday. Every Treasury maturity fell with it, from the 3-month at 3.82% to the 30-year at 5.222%.

• July CPI lands at 8:30 Eastern. Consensus looks for 3.4% annual headline and 2.5% core, each a tenth below June.

• Traders now price September as a coin flip on a rate hike. Nasdaq 100 futures lead this morning, up 0.64%.

Market Pulse

U.S. futures are higher, with growth leading.

• S&P 500 futures add 0.24%.

• Nasdaq 100 futures gain 0.64%.

• Dow futures are up 0.07%.

• Russell 2000 futures sit near flat.

Tuesday closed mostly lower. The S&P 500 finished at 7,728.20, down 0.32%. The Dow lost 0.34% to 53,791.85. The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.33% to 29,525.48. The Russell 2000 was the exception, up 0.32% to 3,027.12.

WTI trades at $83.40, up 0.24%. Gold is $4,469.90 an ounce and silver $66.38, up 2.23% overnight. The 2-year yield is 4.199% and the 10-year 4.668%, both lower this morning. The VIX is 15.38. Bitcoin trades near $64,150. The euro buys $1.154.

THOR Risk Gauge

Bullish. Both published strategies open near fully invested, volatility sits at 15.38, and the long end backed away from its 52-week high overnight. What earns that label rather than something more cautious is where the relief came from. Crude stopped rising, and that removed the one input pushing 30-year money toward 5.30%. The 8:30 report either confirms it or takes it back.

The THOR View

Healthcare runs 16.2% of the even-weight strategy, and it answers to neither story this morning. A hospital system and a drugmaker do not price revenue off crude, and they do not reset it on a monthly inflation report. Contracted rates, patent windows and demographics set that revenue years ahead of any 8:30 release. The cost side is labor and research rather than fuel and freight. That is a different exposure from the five sectors sitting beside it at the same size. Tuesday sorted the market by energy sensitivity: energy gained 1.06%, consumer discretionary lost 0.75%, technology 0.26%. Healthcare's earnings stream was not in that conversation.

The whole Treasury curve moved lower overnight, and it moved together. Three-month bills pay 3.82%, the 2-year 4.199%, the 10-year 4.668% and the 30-year 5.222%, each a shade below Tuesday. Two days ago the long end sat within four basis points of a 52-week high, and it got there on crude rather than on growth data. Crude has now stalled, up 0.24% this morning after that 8% run. That is the entire reason the long end backed off, which makes this morning's number the test of whether the bond market moved early. The even-weight strategy spreads six sectors across a 0.9 point range, so no single maturity decides the outcome for it.

The rotation strategy owns the S&P 500 at 50.0% and the blue-chip average at 49.1%, and Tuesday was the rare session where neither was the right place to be. Both fell about a third of a percent. The Russell 2000 rose 0.32%, the only major American average to finish green. Small caps are the most rate-sensitive corner of the equity market, and they moved first as the long end came off its high. This morning the order changed again, with Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.64% against 0.07% for the Dow. Three sessions, three different leaders: energy Monday, small caps Tuesday, growth this morning. Owning both broad averages at roughly half each is why that churn nets out.

Signal Watch

THOR Index Rotation — As of 8/11/26

Half in each of the two broadest American benchmarks, with 1% in bills. Into a binary data release, an even split absorbs the result rather than taking a side beforehand.

THOR Low Volatility — As of 8/11/26

Six real-economy sectors inside a 0.9 point range, with 4.0% in bills. The two industrial sectors sit at the top and the two rate-sensitive ones at the bottom, a spread of less than a point that reflects equal-weight construction rather than a view on the release. The four at zero have not confirmed the trend the system requires.

THOR AdaptiveRisk Dynamic — As of 8/11/26

Equity is 50.3% of this actively managed strategy, with specialty currency at 19.0%, commodity 15.5% and fixed income 13.3%. The long dollar position and the interest rate hedge together run 28.6%, both sized against the same risk this morning's data speaks to. Each moved up a tenth over the week, as did the commodity and energy positions.

One Thing to Watch

July CPI lands at 8:30 Eastern, with consensus at 3.4% annual headline and 2.5% core. The component worth reading is medical care services, which feeds the revenue line of the sector now sized at 16.2%. It is also the line least disturbed by the crude move, and a cleaner read on underlying inflation than the headline.

From the same desk — THOR Signals reads the regime on the whole market and any name your clients hold, three horizons, every market evening, with the price where each read turns. See it at thorsignals.com.

Brad Roth / CIO, THOR Financial Technologies

This content reflects the opinions, analyses, and research of THOR Financial Technologies as of the date published. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon as the basis for any investment decision. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, and all investments involve risk. For more information, please go to: thorft.com