The Chicago Fed Says Demand Is Strong. Copper Agrees, Gold Doesn't

Copper is up 1.47% this morning while both precious metals fell, every Treasury maturity from six months out is lower, and crude gave back 2.7%. Four of the six sector positions in the even-weight strategy go ex-dividend today, so the first move on your screen this morning won't be a real one.

Brad Roth
September 21, 2026

TL;DR

• All four American benchmarks are higher in futures, with the Nasdaq 100 up 1.07% and the Philadelphia semiconductor index adding 2.78%. Overseas, the Nikkei gained 1.38% and the DAX 1.14%.

• Yields fell from six months out to thirty years. The ten-year at 4.952% is back under 5% and West Texas at $93.47 is down 2.72%.

• The Select Sector SPDRs go ex-dividend today, the Monday after the third Friday. Several open lower on the distribution alone, which isn't a price move.

Market Pulse

Futures as of 7:15 AM ET

• S&P 500 futures are up 0.67% at 7,764.00.

• Nasdaq 100 futures add 1.07% at 30,238.00.

• Dow futures are up 0.77% at 52,482.00.

• Russell 2000 futures gain 0.73% at 2,902.40.

Friday was the quarterly expiration. The S&P 500 slipped 0.12%, the Dow 0.48% and the Russell 2000 0.47%, while the Nasdaq 100 added 0.63%. Two of eleven American sectors finished green.

• West Texas trades $93.47, down 2.72%. Brent is $101.12, down 2.65%.

• Copper is $6.7900, up 1.47%. Gold is $4,390.25, down 0.78%, and silver $66.61, down 0.80%.

• The two-year yields 4.723%, the ten-year 4.952% and the thirty-year 5.293%. All three are lower.

• The dollar index is 100.32, dollar/yen 157.26 and volatility 14.86. Bitcoin trades $84,627, up 4.25%.

THOR Risk Gauge

Steady. Both systematic strategies came in near fully invested, at 99% and 96%, and every American benchmark is bid this morning. Yields fell from six months out to thirty years, and volatility at 14.86 is barely off Friday's close. The open question is three central bank increases inside nine days, none of which has reached the data yet.

The THOR View

Four of the six sector positions in the even-weight strategy go ex-dividend this morning. The Select Sector SPDR funds use the Monday after the third Friday of the quarter. Utilities, materials, industrials and real estate each open with a distribution taken out of the price. Utilities is the clearest example. It closed Friday at $41.10 against a 52-week low of $41.08, so the payout alone puts it at a new low before a share trades. That's cash on its way to shareholders, not a business getting worse. Telling those two apart is the whole job.

Copper is up 1.47% at $6.79 this morning while gold fell 0.78% and silver 0.80%. The metal the industrial economy consumes is bid. The two bought as hedges are being sold. Austan Goolsbee said before the open that strong demand may be adding to inflation alongside energy and tariff shocks. Materials, at 16.1% of the even-weight strategy, sells into that demand, and it was one of the two weakest American sectors Friday, down 1.42%. Cheaper crude helps it twice, because energy is a chemicals and packaging feedstock, not only a fuel.

Every Treasury maturity from six months out to thirty years fell overnight, and the five-year gave up almost four basis points. Industrials was the only one of the six positions to finish green Friday, up 0.44% on a day nine of eleven sectors fell. It collects three separate things this morning. Copper demand says its customers are ordering. Diesel is 2.72% cheaper. And the capital it spends discounts at a lower rate than it did Friday. Freight, rail, aerospace and machinery price off all three.

Signal Watch

THOR Index Rotation — As of 9/18/26

Roughly half in each American benchmark, 99% invested, the rest in bills. The two finished 0.36 points apart Friday, about as close as a market-value index and a price-weighted one get. Neither needs a single industry to work.

THOR Low Volatility — As of 9/18/26

Six sectors sized between 15.3% and 17.0%, with the rest in bills. Four of them go ex-dividend this morning, so today's opening percentages will understate each by a fraction of a point. Healthcare sells into demand the cycle doesn't set, and the other five answer to production, credit, commodity prices and the curve.

THOR AdaptiveRisk Dynamic — As of 9/18/26

The actively managed strategy runs 59.1% in equities, 15.9% in commodities, 14.6% in specialty currency exposure, 5.9% in alternatives and 4.6% in rate hedging. Five of the top ten are technology or semiconductor positions, and the Philadelphia semiconductor index is up 2.78% this morning. The dollar position remains the largest single holding, with the index at 100.32.

One Thing to Watch

The Chicago Fed's national activity index at 8:30 is the only American data today. It runs 85 indicators into one number, weighted mostly toward production and employment. That's most of what the materials and industrials positions sell. Copper bid and crude lower already says demand is holding. That index is the broadest check on it.

Brad Roth / CIO, THOR Financial Technologies

This content reflects the opinions, analyses, and research of THOR Financial Technologies as of the date published. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon as the basis for any investment decision. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, and all investments involve risk. For more information, please go to: thorft.com