The Fed Minutes Said More Hikes. Only Healthcare Shrugged

Brad Roth
October 08, 2026

TL;DR

• The Fed's September minutes showed most policymakers expect more hikes. Governor Waller said this morning more are likely needed, and the two-year is up 5.4 basis points.

• Healthcare was the only sector to rise Wednesday, up 1.03%. It's 20.0% of the even-weight strategy, next to technology and financials.

• Brent is up 4.85% at $105.06 on tanker attacks near Hormuz and a hurricane headed for the Gulf. Treasury sells thirty-year bonds at 1:00.

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Market Pulse

Futures as of 7:11 AM ET, commodities, rates and currencies as of 7:19 to 7:27 AM ET

• S&P 500 futures are down 0.59% at 7,806.25.

• Nasdaq 100 futures are down 0.85% at 31,135.00.

• Dow futures are down 1.02% at 50,925.00.

• Russell 2000 futures are down 1.11% at 2,780.90.

Wednesday was the first red day of October. The S&P 500 slipped 0.24%, the Nasdaq 100 0.25% and the Dow 0.69%. Small caps fell 1.29%. Healthcare was the lone gainer, up 1.03%. Industrials finished last, down 2.18%, with materials off 1.51%.

• Brent is $105.06, up 4.85%. West Texas is $92.62, up 4.92%.

• Gold is $4,147.92, up 0.17% after touching a two-month low. Silver is down 2.05% at $59.06.

• The three-month bill yields 4.143%, the two-year 4.819%, the ten-year 5.345% and the thirty-year 5.721%.

• Euro/dollar is 1.1177, down 0.17%. The dollar buys 158.28 yen. Volatility futures are 17.73. Bitcoin is $82,495, down 0.99%.

• The DAX is down 1.07% and the Nikkei 1.25%. TSMC's quarterly revenue beat forecasts.

• Jobless claims land at 8:30, with 200,000 expected. The thirty-year auction follows at 1:00.

THOR Risk Gauge

Neutral. The index strategy is fully invested across the three major American indexes. The even-weight strategy holds 60.4% in three sectors and 40.1% in Treasury bills. Hawkish Fed minutes, a ten-year at 5.35% and Brent over $105 offset two portfolios that are mostly invested.

The THOR View

Healthcare had the day to itself. It rose 1.03% Wednesday while the other ten sectors fell. Industrials dropped 2.18% and real estate 1.29%. The sector is 20.0% of the even-weight strategy, up from 19.8% Tuesday. It closed 4.4% under its 52-week high. Hospitals, drugmakers and insurers get paid for care, and demand for care doesn't follow the bond market. People don't skip a prescription because the ten-year hit 5.3%. That's why it held up on a day when rate fears hit everything tied to borrowing.

The rate fears came from the Fed itself. September's minutes, out at 2:00 Wednesday, showed most policymakers saw more hikes ahead. Markets now price three over the next year, starting in December. Waller added this morning that more increases will likely be needed, with "flexibility" on pace. The two-year is 4.819%, up 5.4 basis points. The ten-year is 5.345%, after touching a 24-year high Wednesday before the auction steadied it.

Hikes look different from inside the even-weight strategy. 40.1% sits in Treasury bills. Bills mature in weeks and roll into new ones at whatever the Fed sets. The three-month yields 4.143% and the one-year 4.450%. Every hike the market prices shows up in that sleeve's yield within a few months. The equity side owns technology at 20.7%, healthcare at 20.0% and financials at 19.7%. That's a growth engine, a defensive and a rate earner, all at near-equal size.

The index strategy holds the S&P 500 at 33.3%, the Nasdaq 100 at 34.2% and the Dow at 32.7%. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 both closed Wednesday within 0.7% of their records. The pressure this week has been underneath. Small caps fell 1.29% Wednesday and sit 9.0% under their high. The system owns the three large-cap indexes where the trend has confirmed.

Signal Watch

THOR Index Rotation — As of 10/7/26

Fully invested in three near-equal pieces. The Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500 sit within 0.7% of their records. The Dow adds the industrial and bank names.

THOR Low Volatility — As of 10/7/26

Healthcare moved up to 20.0% after the only green close of the eleven sectors. The three weakest sectors Wednesday, industrials, materials and real estate, all sit at zero.

THOR AdaptiveRisk Dynamic — As of 10/7/26

The mix runs 45.9% equity, 18.6% alternatives, 14.5% commodity, 14.4% specialty currency and 6.6% fixed income. The commodity fund, the energy fund and an Exxon position all sit under Brent's 4.85% jump. The interest-rate hedge is the leg that gains if the thirty-year auction comes in weak.

One Thing to Watch

Treasury sells thirty-year bonds at 1:00, after 5.308% at the last sale. The thirty-year is 5.721% this morning, so buyers will want a lot more. A sloppy result pushes long yields higher, and technology, 20.7% of the even-weight strategy, feels long rates first.

Brad Roth / CIO, THOR Financial Technologies

This content reflects the opinions, analyses, and research of THOR Financial Technologies as of the date published. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon as the basis for any investment decision. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, and all investments involve risk. For more information, please go to: thorft.com