The Nasdaq Hit a Record. The Dow Is Still 6% Short

Brad Roth
October 06, 2026

TL;DR

• The Nasdaq 100 closed Monday at a record, and the S&P 500 sits 0.58% under its high. The Dow gained 0.18% and finished 6.3% below its own.

• West Texas is down 2.05% at $87.60, and Brent slipped back under $100. The ten-year eased 4.7 basis points to 5.266%.

• The index strategy holds all three indexes near a third each. The even-weight strategy holds three sectors near a fifth each, with 40.2% in Treasury bills.

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Market Pulse

Futures as of 7:13 to 7:14 AM ET, currencies as of 7:11 to 7:12 AM ET, commodities as of 7:19 AM ET, rates as of 7:19 to 7:26 AM ET

• S&P 500 futures are up 0.35% at 7,853.50.

• Nasdaq 100 futures gain 0.49% at 31,472.25.

• Dow futures are up 0.48% at 51,807.00.

• Russell 2000 futures add 0.16% at 2,872.50.

Monday was another broad day. The S&P 500 rose 0.66% to 7,773.95 and the Nasdaq Composite 1.05% to 27,477.31. The Dow added 0.18%. Ten of eleven sectors rose for a second straight session. Materials led at 1.31%, then communication services at 1.17%. Real estate was the only decliner, down 0.34%.

• West Texas trades $87.60, down 2.05%. Brent is $98.29, down 2.02%.

• Gold is $4,191.80, up 0.84%. Silver is up 0.38% at $61.54, and copper is flat.

• The three-month bill yields 4.136%, the two-year 4.802%, the ten-year 5.266% and the thirty-year 5.631%.

• Euro/dollar is 1.1245, up 0.20%. The dollar buys 158.20 yen. Volatility futures are 17.20. Bitcoin trades $86,074.

• Germany's DAX is up 0.79% and the Nikkei 1.70%. China is still closed for National Day.

• The August trade balance lands at 8:30, expected at a $100.8 billion deficit. Treasury sells three-year notes at 1:00.

THOR Risk Gauge

Slightly bullish. The index strategy is fully invested across the three major American indexes. The even-weight strategy holds 60.4% in three sectors and 40.2% in Treasury bills. A record close on the Nasdaq 100, a VIX at 15.28 and an easing ten-year all lean constructive. A ten-year still above 5.25% keeps it from leaning further.

The THOR View

The Nasdaq 100 closed Monday at a record. The S&P 500 finished 0.58% under its high. The Dow closed 6.3% below its own. That's a wide spread for three indexes that rose together. The index strategy owns all three, with the Nasdaq 100 at 34.2%, the S&P 500 at 33.2% and the Dow at 32.8%. Near-equal thirds put the leader's gains in the portfolio and keep the laggard at full size.

The Dow's gap has a simple cause. It's weighted by share price. That puts industrial, bank and insurance names near the top, the companies that feel borrowing costs first. The ten-year closed Monday at 5.313%, near its highest since 2002. This morning it's 5.266%. Cheaper oil is part of the reason. West Texas is down 2.05% after a drop Monday, and Brent is back under $100. Dow futures are up 0.48%, in step with the Nasdaq 100.

Germany added to the bid for bonds. August factory orders fell 10.6% against a 0.9% forecast. Later in the morning Germany sold two-year notes at 3.100%, down from 3.270% at its last sale. A weak factory number abroad pulls global yields lower, and lower yields help both ends of the index strategy. The Dow's top weights borrow. The Nasdaq 100's value sits in future earnings.

The even-weight strategy runs the same discipline one level down. Technology closed Monday 0.23% under its 52-week high and is 20.7% of the portfolio. Healthcare rose 0.72% and sits 5.2% under its high, at 19.8%. Financials are 19.8% as well. The other 40.2% earns the bill rate, with the three-month at 4.136%. No single sector gets more room than the others, even the one closest to a record.

Signal Watch

THOR Index Rotation — As of 10/5/26

Fully invested, in three near-equal pieces. The Nasdaq 100 is the largest line after Monday's record, and the Dow is the smallest, 6.3% under its high.

THOR Low Volatility — As of 10/5/26

Three sectors near a fifth each, with growth, defensive and rate-sensitive all represented. Real estate, Monday's only decliner, sits at zero.

THOR AdaptiveRisk Dynamic — As of 10/5/26

The mix runs 45.6% equity, 19.0% alternatives, 14.4% commodity, 14.3% specialty currency and 6.7% fixed income. The leveraged Nasdaq 100 fund grew to 9.0% on Monday's record. The interest-rate hedge sits at 4.8%, the leg that gains if long yields climb back.

One Thing to Watch

Treasury sells three-year notes at 1:00, with the three-year at 4.927% this morning. Ten-year notes follow Wednesday. Weak demand would push yields back toward Monday's levels, and the Dow, 32.8% of the index strategy, feels that first.

Brad Roth / CIO, THOR Financial Technologies

This content reflects the opinions, analyses, and research of THOR Financial Technologies as of the date published. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon as the basis for any investment decision. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, and all investments involve risk. For more information, please go to: thorft.com