The Yen Sank to a 40-Year Low.

A record first half closed and the new quarter opened soft. Both systematic strategies walk in near fully invested, spread across every major benchmark and seven real-economy sectors, built for what's working rather than flinching at a red open.

Brad Roth
July 01, 2026

TL;DR

• Futures slipped to open the third quarter, all four benchmarks a touch lower after the strongest first half in five years.

• The yen marked a fresh 40-year low overnight, the standout move in an otherwise quiet session ahead of ISM manufacturing and the ADP labor read.

• Both systematic strategies open the new half near fully invested, across all three benchmarks and seven real-economy sectors. The all-in construction sat on the right side of the first half and stays committed into the second.

Market Pulse

As of 7:20 AM ET, Wednesday 7/1/26

• U.S. futures are modestly lower to open the third quarter.

• S&P 500 futures are down about 0.3%.

• Nasdaq 100 futures are off about 0.4%.

• Dow futures are down about 0.3%.

• Russell 2000 futures sit down about 0.2%.

• The 10-year Treasury yield holds near 4.42%, the 2-year near 3.6%.

• WTI crude trades near $69.50, soft, Brent near $72.30.

• Gold runs near $3,985.

• The fear gauge sits near 16.5.

• Bitcoin trades near $58,700.

• The Japanese yen slid to a fresh 40-year low against the dollar.

A new month, quarter, and half all begin today, and the open is a modest give-back after the best first six months in five years. The data calendar picks up, with ISM manufacturing and the ADP employment read due, and the June jobs report set for Thursday ahead of the holiday weekend.

THOR Risk Gauge

The fear gauge sits near 16.5 and eased into the new quarter, and the first half closed with records across the blue chips. The soft open is a give-back, not a change in tone, with long-end yields near 4.42% and crude soft near $69.50. The check on the read is the labor calendar, with ISM manufacturing today and the June jobs report Thursday.

The THOR View

The new quarter opened lower, and it opened that way from a position of strength. Both systematic strategies walk into the second half near fully invested, the index strategy even across all three major benchmarks and the even-weight strategy across seven real-economy sectors. That is a conviction call, not a default. Coming off the best first half in five years, the easy move is to trim into strength and bank the gains, and the construction does the opposite: it stays committed to what led, because the trends that paid the first half have not broken.

Utilities is worth a look this morning, the one classic defensive the even-weight strategy actually owns. Healthcare, Consumer Staples, and Energy all sit at zero, the corners a nervous market usually runs to, while Utilities carries a full sector weight beside the cyclicals. The reason is that the sector stopped trading like a bond-proxy hideout and started trading like a power-demand story. The AI buildout needs electricity and data centers need baseload, so Utilities has re-rated on real earnings growth, not a flight to safety. That matters on a morning long-end yields tick up toward 4.42%, normally a headwind for a rate-sensitive defensive. It holds its slot anyway, because the demand trend carries it, the bar the other defensives have not cleared.

Signal Watch

THOR Index Rotation

As of 6/30/26

All three benchmarks sit near a third of the mix, the index strategy fully invested into the new quarter. The even split is the design, no single index pulling the weight the way the cap-weighted growth gauge does on its own. It caught the first-half rally from that even footing.

THOR Low Volatility

As of 6/30/26

Seven real-economy sectors run at roughly even weight, technology capped near a sixth of the mix rather than the third it commands in the cap-weighted index. Utilities carries a full weight beside the cyclicals, the one classic defensive that has confirmed a trend. Energy, Healthcare, and Consumer Staples stay at zero. Cash and T-bills sit near 2.5%.

THOR AdaptiveRisk Dynamic

As of 6/30/26

The actively managed strategy runs near 59% equity, 22% commodity, 11% specialty and currency, and 7% fixed income. The currency leg is doing the macro work this morning: it is positioned for a weaker yen, and the yen just marked a fresh 40-year low. A gold-income position anchors the commodity side, with a broad commodity basket and an energy stake beside it, and a rate hedge rounds out the fixed-income view.

One Thing to Watch

ISM manufacturing lands at 10 AM, the first read on whether the factory economy is firming into the new quarter. That number speaks directly to the industrials and basic-materials sectors the even-weight strategy leans on, where the case has been a real economy that keeps building and shipping. A firm read supports the value trade that led June, while a soft one puts it to the test before Thursday's jobs report.

Brad Roth / CIO, THOR Financial Technologies

This content reflects the opinions, analyses, and research of THOR Financial Technologies as of the date published. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon as the basis for any investment decision. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, and all investments involve risk. For more information, please go to: thorft.com