Yields Pull In Hard, Utilities Carries the Grid Side

The 10-year drops nine basis points to 4.481%, the long bond returns to exactly 5.00 after six straight sessions above, and the cyclical lineup's number-two weight runs the data-center power layer alongside the rate move.

Brad Roth
May 26, 2026

TL;DR

• US equity futures lean firmly green into the first session back from Memorial Day with small caps and the Nasdaq leading. S&P 500 futures up 0.68%, Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.99%, Dow futures up 0.57%, Russell 2000 futures up 1.13%.

• The 10-year Treasury yield drops nearly nine basis points overnight to 4.481%, the 2-year eases seven basis points to 4.053%, and the 30-year returns to exactly 5.000% after six straight sessions above the round number. The 2s10s curve sits at +42.8 basis points, in from +48 the prior Friday.

• WTI crude is at $92.29, off another 4.46% on a third consecutive session of Iran-de-escalation unwind. Utilities carries 13.8% in the cyclical lineup, the second-largest equal-weight position, sitting alongside Technology and Real Estate as the third leg of the same data-center capex stack and a direct beneficiary of the yield pullback.

Market Pulse

Futures as of 7:18 AM ET, May 26, 2026. Source: CNBC pre-markets, cross-checked Yahoo Finance.

• US equity futures lean firmly green across all four major averages with small caps and the Nasdaq leading.

• S&P 500 futures are up 0.68%.

• Nasdaq 100 futures are up 0.99%.

• Dow futures are up 0.57%.

• Russell 2000 futures are up 1.13%.

WTI crude is at $92.29, off 4.46% overnight on a third consecutive session of supply-shock unwind as US-Iran negotiations advance. Brent runs in tandem. RBOB gasoline is off 4.11% to $3.312, the cleanest read on the pass-through to the consumer's pump price. Natural gas adds 0.62% to $2.925.

Gold is at $4,531.80 per ounce, up 0.19% overnight, broadly steady on the rate move. Silver runs $76.55, up 0.46%. The precious complex sits in the middle band as duration takes the cleaner bid this morning.

The 10-year Treasury yield drops nearly nine basis points overnight to 4.481%, the cleanest pullback at the long end in three weeks. The 2-year eases seven basis points to 4.053%. The 30-year returns to exactly 5.000%, the round number that had been a ceiling for the prior week and now sits as the floor after six straight sessions above it. The 5-year is at 4.177%. The 2s10s curve sits at +42.8 basis points.

VIX runs 16.62, broadly flat near the lowest reading in close to two months. The Nasdaq vol contract VXN sits at 22.82, unchanged. The Oil VIX holds 75.97 despite the underlying off 4.46%, the only commodity-vol contract still bidding meaningfully.

Bitcoin trades near $77,388, broadly flat overnight. EUR/USD sits at 1.164, off three basis points. USD/JPY runs 159.13, broadly flat near recent highs.

European indexes lean broadly red into the early afternoon session: STOXX 50 off 0.27%, DAX off 0.45%, CAC off 0.84%, AEX off 0.28%, FTSE up 0.66% as the standout. Asia closed marginally red across the majors: Nikkei off 0.25%, ASX 200 off 0.39%, Hang Seng off 0.03%, Shanghai off 0.17%.

Today's calendar carries Conference Board Consumer Confidence at 10:00 ET and durable goods orders at 8:30 ET. The Treasury runs a 2-year auction at 1:00 ET into the live rate move.

THOR Risk Gauge

The lineup carries full equity exposure across both systematic strategies into the first session back from Memorial Day, with the index sleeve at 100% invested and the cyclical sleeve at 97.8% across seven active sectors. The macro setup carries the cleanest read of the month at the open: yields easing meaningfully across the curve with the 10-year off nine basis points and the long bond back to exactly 5.000% after six straight sessions above it, crude continuing the supply-shock unwind down another 4.46% to $92.29 on Iran-de-escalation progress, vol contained at 16.62 near multi-month lows, and futures leaning firmly green across all four averages with cyclical breadth carrying alongside. The cushion sits in the seven-sector equal-weight construction and in the index pair that owns the growth side of the broad market.

The THOR View

Utilities sits at 13.8% inside the cyclical lineup, the second-largest equal-weight position behind only Technology, and the reflexive read on the position has always been the rate-sensitive defensive sleeve. The framing carries some of the story this morning. The 10-year drops nine basis points, the 30-year returns to exactly 5.00%, and the utility complex has spent the year carrying the cleanest inverse correlation to the long end across the equal-weight sectors. Today's rate move pulls straight through the regulated-utility math on present-value terms. But the sleeve has become something else underneath the rate sensitivity. Roughly a third of US power demand growth over the next five years now keys off data centers and the AI compute build that has lifted Technology to the top of the cyclical sleeve. The regulated utilities run the substations, the grid interconnects, and the new generation capacity that the hyperscalers cannot bring online themselves. The sleeve sits next to Technology at 15.9% and Real Estate at 13.9% as the third leg of the same capex cycle, alongside the chips that do the compute and the data centers that house them.

Crude extends the supply-shock unwind another 4.46% to $92.29 this morning on continued US-Iran de-escalation. The contract has now given back roughly $15 from the highs above $107 earlier this month, with the conflict premium coming out of the price across the last full trading week and the long weekend. The pass-through is starting to show in the consumer-facing layer: RBOB gasoline is off 4.11% to $3.312 this morning, the pump-price read that lands directly on household budgets ahead of Friday's Personal Income release. Energy at 0% in the cyclical lineup carries the position the supply-driven backdrop earned. The seven active sectors absorb the rotation through cyclical breadth rather than through the commodity complex.

The first session back from a holiday sets up against today's calendar. Conference Board Consumer Confidence releases at 10:00 ET into a setup where the year-to-date inflation impulse is finally easing on the energy side. Durable goods orders cross at 8:30 ET, the manufacturing read that lands directly on the Industrials position at 13.7%. The Treasury auctions $69 billion of 2-year notes at 1:00 ET into the front-end rate move that has already pulled the 2-year seven basis points lower overnight. The lineup carries the equity exposure across all three windows. Cash sits at half a percent inside the index sleeve and at 2.2% inside the cyclical sleeve.

Signal Watch

THOR Index Rotation — As of 5/22/26

The strategy holds the Nasdaq and the S&P pair at near-equal weight, with cash under one percent. The Dow sits out at zero, the trend on the blue-chip basket unconfirmed even after Friday's record close at 50,579.70. The mix carries the growth side of the broad market into the rate-easing tape this morning.

THOR Low Volatility — As of 5/22/26

Seven cyclical sectors carry the sleeve at roughly equal weight inside the 13.3% to 15.9% band. Technology holds the top weight on the AI capex bid, with Real Estate and Utilities sitting alongside as the data-center real estate and power layers of the same buildout. Energy, Healthcare, and Consumer Staples remain at zero, the defensive trio that has not earned its way back into the cyclical mix.

THOR AdaptiveRisk Dynamic — As of 5/22/26

The actively managed sleeve runs roughly 63% equity, 21% commodity, 9% specialty FX, and 8% fixed income, with the largest single position the gold-strategy income ETF anchoring the commodity book at 11.6%. The leveraged Nasdaq exposure and the semiconductor pair sit alongside as the growth tilt, while the yen-short and rate-hedge positions carry the cross-asset macro view against today's long-end pullback. The energy ETF holds a 5.1% weight even as the cyclical-sleeve sector remains at zero, reflecting the active mandate's separate read on the commodity unwind.

One Thing to Watch

The 2-year Treasury auction at 1:00 ET. The Treasury is selling $69 billion of 2-year notes into a session where the front end has already pulled seven basis points lower overnight on the rate move. Demand metrics on a strong auction extend the rally and pull the curve steeper from the bottom. A weak takedown reverses the morning's move and firms the dollar against the lower-yielders. The Industrials position at 13.7% sits directly against the durable goods release at 8:30 ET into the same setup.

Brad Roth / CIO, THOR Financial Technologies

This content reflects the opinions, analyses, and research of THOR Financial Technologies as of the date published. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon as the basis for any investment decision. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, and all investments involve risk. For more information, please go to: thorft.com