An Oil Shock Usually Lifts Gold. Not This Morning

Brad Roth
September 28, 2026

TL;DR

• Crude jumped after Trump rejected Iran's peace plan and Tehran held firm on its Hormuz terms. Gold fell below $4,200 and silver lost 4.8%.

• The two-year is up 5.8 basis points and the ten-year sits at 5.225%. Nasdaq 100 futures lead the drop, down 0.96%.

• The index strategy owns the Nasdaq 100, the S&P 500 and the Dow in near-equal thirds. The even-weight strategy holds technology, healthcare and financials at 20% each, with 40% in bills.

Market Pulse

Futures as of 7:12 AM ET

• S&P 500 futures are down 0.53% at 7,762.25.

• Nasdaq 100 futures fall 0.96% at 30,593.00.

• Dow futures are down 0.56% at 51,871.00.

• Russell 2000 futures slip 0.68% at 2,839.90.

Friday closed green. The S&P 500 gained 0.54%, the Nasdaq 100 0.46%, the Dow 0.94% and the Russell 2000 0.11%. Eight of eleven sectors rose. Industrials led at 0.95%, then technology at 0.80% and financials at 0.57%. Communication services finished last, down 0.90%, with energy down 0.89%.

• West Texas trades $95.91, up 3.79%. Brent is $100.63, up 3.27%.

• Gold is $4,181.87, down 3.22%. Silver fell 4.77% and copper 2.06%.

• The three-month bill yields 4.188%, the two-year 4.922%, the ten-year 5.225% and the thirty-year 5.533%.

• Euro/dollar is 1.1373 and the dollar buys 157.03 yen. The VIX is 16.29, up 9.55%. Bitcoin trades $83,063, down 2.07%.

• Fed Governor Bowman speaks this morning. Dallas Fed manufacturing lands at 10:30, and the Treasury sells three- and six-month bills at 11:30.

THOR Risk Gauge

Neutral. The index strategy is 99.7% invested and the even-weight strategy 60.5%. A ten-year at 5.225% and crude near $96 on a stalled Hormuz deal argue against leaning harder. Friday's broad gain, with eight of eleven sectors green, argues against pulling back.

The THOR View

Gold usually rallies when the Middle East flares. This morning it's down 3.22% while crude is up 3.79%. The rate market is the reason. The two-year is up 5.8 basis points to 4.922% as traders price in more Fed hikes. Gold pays nothing, and every rise in short rates makes it more expensive to hold. A Treasury bill works the other way. The even-weight strategy keeps 40.2% in bills, and that position gets paid more when the Fed leans hawkish. The Treasury sells new three-month bills at 11:30, and the three-month trades at 4.188% this morning.

The Dow is 33.2% of the index strategy, and Friday it did the heavy lifting. It rose 0.94%, beating the S&P 500 by 40 basis points and the Nasdaq 100 by almost half a point. The Dow is weighted by share price, not market value. That puts names like Goldman Sachs and Caterpillar near the top instead of chipmakers. Its earnings answer to the economy more than to the discount rate. This morning the ten-year is leaning on growth valuations, and Dow futures are down 0.56% against 0.96% for the Nasdaq 100. Owning all three indexes means one piece of the strategy is built for exactly this kind of morning.

Technology is 20.2% of the even-weight strategy. Healthcare is 20.2% and financials 20.1%. Semiconductors rose 7.4% last week, and the tech sector closed Friday 1.2% under its 52-week high. In a cap-weighted index, a run like that grows tech's share on its own. Equal weight keeps it level with the other two. The strategy owns the sector's trend without letting one strong week turn into a bigger bet.

Signal Watch

THOR Index Rotation — As of 9/25/26

Fully invested at 99.7%, in three even pieces. The Dow led Friday and holds up best in futures this morning. The Nasdaq 100 carries the large growth names, and the S&P 500 spreads across the whole market.

THOR Low Volatility — As of 9/25/26

One growth, one defensive and one cyclical sector, each at 20%. All three finished among Friday's top four sectors. The other 40.2% sits in bills yielding about 4.19%.

THOR AdaptiveRisk Dynamic — As of 9/25/26

The mix runs 59.0% equity, 15.4% commodity, 14.6% specialty currency, 4.9% fixed income and 5.9% alternatives. The energy position and the gold position move in opposite directions this morning. The rate hedge at 4.9% is built to gain as long yields rise.

One Thing to Watch

August PCE lands Wednesday at 8:30, with the third estimate of second-quarter GDP, on the last day of the quarter. A hot core number adds to this morning's rate pressure. The Dow position and the even-weight strategy's healthcare and financials answer to that less than the Nasdaq 100 does.

Brad Roth / CIO, THOR Financial Technologies

This content reflects the opinions, analyses, and research of THOR Financial Technologies as of the date published. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon as the basis for any investment decision. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, and all investments involve risk. For more information, please go to: thorft.com