Australia Hiked Overnight. The American Ten-Year Went the Other Way

The Reserve Bank of Australia went to 4.60% and Spain's inflation hit 4.9%, yet the ten-year here is 3 basis points lower. Healthcare was Monday's best sector, and it's now the largest position in the even-weight strategy.

Brad Roth
September 29, 2026

TL;DR

• Australia raised rates to 4.60% overnight and Spain's inflation came in at 4.9%. The American ten-year still fell 3.0 basis points to 5.215%, and futures are green.

• Yields drove Monday's selling, and only three of eleven sectors rose. Healthcare led at 0.33%, and it's now 20.3% of the even-weight strategy, its largest position.

• The index strategy owns the Nasdaq 100, the Dow and the S&P 500 in near-equal thirds going into job openings at 10:00 and PCE on Wednesday.

Market Pulse

Futures as of 7:12 AM ET

• S&P 500 futures are up 0.08% at 7,752.75.

• Nasdaq 100 futures add 0.23% at 30,635.25.

• Dow futures are up 0.07% at 51,872.00.

• Russell 2000 futures gain 0.15% at 2,844.50.

Yields did the damage Monday. The S&P 500 fell 0.74%, the Nasdaq 100 1.07%, the Dow 0.67% and the Russell 2000 0.69%. Only three of eleven sectors closed green: healthcare up 0.33%, staples 0.27% and energy 0.10%. Communication services finished last, down 1.58%.

• West Texas trades $91.73, down 0.94%, four dollars under where it traded Monday morning. Brent is $96.92, down 0.93%.

• Gold is $4,190.50, up 0.53%, after the largest gold fund lost 3.94% Monday. Silver is down 0.73%.

• The three-month bill yields 4.198%, the two-year 4.912%, the ten-year 5.215% and the thirty-year 5.541%.

• Euro/dollar is 1.1346, down 0.22%, and the dollar buys 157.27 yen. Volatility futures are 17.54. Bitcoin trades $84,066, up 0.68%.

• Consumer confidence and JOLTS land at 10:00. Bowman, Barr, Goolsbee, Williams and Waller all speak between 11:00 and 3:00.

THOR Risk Gauge

Neutral. The index strategy is fully invested across all three major American indexes. The even-weight strategy holds 60.3% in three sectors and the rest in bills. Monday was thin, with eight of eleven sectors lower, but a ten-year easing while overseas yields climb is the constructive offset.

The THOR View

The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate to 4.60% overnight, up from 4.35%. Spain's September inflation came in at 4.9% against 4.6% expected. Britain sold ten-year gilts at 5.383%, up from 5.155% at the last sale. Italy paid 4.58% for ten years, against 4.10% before. That's the same pressure that hit American stocks Monday, when traders priced in more Fed hikes. This morning the ten-year here went the other way, down 3.0 basis points to 5.215%.

Healthcare was the best of the eleven American sectors Monday, up 0.33% on a day the S&P 500 lost 0.74%. That's the second time in three sessions it finished in the top two while most of the market fell. It's now 20.3% of the even-weight strategy, ahead of technology at 20.1% and financials at 19.9%. Nobody chose that order. Healthcare rose while the other two fell, and equal weight shows it plainly. Drug makers and insurers sell into demand that a rate hike in Sydney or Madrid doesn't touch. The sector closed 3.0% under its 52-week high.

This is the heaviest data stretch of the quarter, and the quarter ends Wednesday. Job openings land at 10:00, with 7.23 million expected against 7.27 million last time. PCE and the third estimate of second-quarter GDP follow Wednesday at 8:30. The index strategy goes in holding 33.7% in the Nasdaq 100, 33.3% in the Dow and 33.2% in the S&P 500. Monday the Dow held up best of the three. This morning the order flipped in futures, with the Nasdaq 100 up 0.23% and the Dow up 0.07%.

Signal Watch

THOR Index Rotation — As of 9/28/26

Fully invested, in three even pieces. The price-weighted Dow lost the least Monday. The Nasdaq 100 leads the futures this morning.

THOR Low Volatility — As of 9/28/26

One defensive, one growth and one cyclical sector, each near 20%. Healthcare moved to the top after Monday's gain. The other 40.3% sits in bills, with the three-month at 4.198%.

THOR AdaptiveRisk Dynamic — As of 9/28/26

The mix runs 59.0% equity, 15.1% commodity, 14.7% specialty currency, 5.9% alternatives and 5.2% fixed income. The rate hedge grew to 5.2% from 4.9% as the ten-year held above 5.2%. The dollar position is the largest line, and the euro's 0.22% slide this morning works in its favor.

One Thing to Watch

Job openings land at 10:00, and Waller closes out five Fed speakers at 3:00. A firm labor read keeps hike pricing alive and the curve steep. A steep curve is what banks earn on, and financials are 19.9% of the even-weight strategy.

Brad Roth / CIO, THOR Financial Technologies

This content reflects the opinions, analyses, and research of THOR Financial Technologies as of the date published. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon as the basis for any investment decision. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, and all investments involve risk. For more information, please go to: thorft.com