Brent Hit $105 and Sentiment Sank. The Average Stock Rose 1.6%

Chips fell 4.3% and technology finished last of eleven sectors. Healthcare and financials both gained more than 2%. They're two of the even-weight strategy's three sectors, and the big banks report Tuesday.

Brad Roth
October 11, 2026

TL;DR

• The equal-weight S&P 500 gained 1.58% on the week, ahead of the regular index at 1.15%. Semiconductors fell 4.32% after the Nasdaq 100 set two records early in the week.

• Brent traded above $105 Thursday on tanker attacks near Hormuz and a hurricane in the Gulf. The ten-year still finished down 3 basis points at 5.244%.

• Both systematic strategies held their shape. Healthcare and financials each gained more than 2%, and technology is only a fifth of the even-weight strategy.

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Week in Review

Weekly closes, Friday 10/9/26

• The S&P 500 closed at 7,811.54, up 1.15% on the week.

• The Dow ended at 51,654.95, up 0.93%.

• The Nasdaq Composite finished at 27,366.17, up 0.65%.

• The Russell 2000 closed at 2,806.98, down 0.91%.

• The VIX ended at 14.84 against 15.31 a week ago.

The week started with chips and ended with everything else. The Nasdaq 100 closed at records Monday and Tuesday. Then the Fed's September minutes showed most officials expect more hikes, and Governor Waller said Thursday more are likely needed. Nvidia fell 2.94% Thursday, and semiconductors finished the week down 4.32%. Technology was the worst of eleven sectors, down 0.52%. Industrials lost 0.41%. The other nine rose. Utilities led at 3.97%, then energy and consumer staples at 3.60% each and healthcare at 2.79%.

Oil had the loudest week. Iran stepped up attacks on tankers in and around Hormuz. Hurricane Isaias shut in about a quarter of Gulf offshore output as of Wednesday, per Oil & Gas Journal. Brent traded above $105 Thursday and closed Friday at $104.42. West Texas settled at $91.66, up 0.44% on the week.

Rates didn't follow crude. The ten-year touched 5.353% Thursday morning and closed Friday at 5.244%, down 3 basis points on the week. The two-year closed at 4.791% and the thirty-year at 5.599%, each down 3.

The consumer is the soft spot. Michigan's October sentiment fell to 46.3 from 48.1, the lowest since May. Year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.7%. Gold gained 1.15% to $4,220.30, and bitcoin ended near $83,200.

Allocation Changes

Both systematic strategies held their shape, and the shape worked.

The index strategy holds the Nasdaq 100 at 33.9%, the S&P 500 at 33.3% and the Dow at 33.0%. The Dow gained 0.98% this week and the Nasdaq 100 0.23%, so the weights drifted a few tenths toward the Dow.

The even-weight strategy holds technology at 20.4%, healthcare at 20.1% and financials at 20.0%, with 40.0% in Treasury bills. Healthcare gained 2.79% and financials 2.32%. Technology lost 0.52% and gave back three tenths of a point of size. Bills yield 4.159% on the three-month.

The actively managed strategy didn't add or drop a position. Nothing moved more than half a point. The direct energy fund grew to 6.8% from 6.6% on crude, and the bitcoin position eased to 12.4% from 12.7%.

The Bigger Picture

Three stocks now make up more than 21% of the S&P 500. That's the highest three-stock share in the index's history. In a week like this one, that concentration is the risk. Chips fell 4.32% and the regular index still gained, but it trailed the equal-weight version by four tenths of a point. The even-weight strategy gives technology a fifth, the same as healthcare and financials. When chips give back, two-thirds of the equity sleeve is somewhere else. This week that somewhere else gained more than 2%.

Financials get their test Tuesday. JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Wells Fargo report, with Bank of America and Morgan Stanley Wednesday. The KBW bank index was 13% off its August peak as of Thursday, per Reuters. The worry is that 5% ten-year yields slow deals and raise funding costs. The other side is the curve. The gap between the two-year and the ten-year is about 45 basis points, up from 30 two weeks ago, and banks earn on that gap. The sector rose 2.32% into the reports. September CPI follows Wednesday morning.

Energy rose 3.60% and still hasn't earned its way in. The move came from tanker attacks and a hurricane, two supply shocks that can reverse in a session. The sector is roughly flat over the past month. Utilities led all eleven at 3.97%, two weeks after finishing last. A ten-year above 5.2% is a heavy weight on the most rate-sensitive sector in the market. The even-weight strategy owns the three sectors with the steadier trend and keeps the rest in bills paying above 4%.

THOR Risk Gauge

Slightly bullish. The index strategy is fully invested, and the even-weight strategy holds 60.5% in three sectors with 40.0% in bills. The VIX closed under 15 and the ten-year eased on the week. Brent above $100, a hawkish Fed and a gloomy consumer keep it from leaning further.

Signal Watch

THOR Index Rotation — As of 10/9/26

Fully invested in near-equal thirds. The Dow beat the Nasdaq 100 by three quarters of a point this week, and each is a third of the portfolio.

THOR Low Volatility — As of 10/9/26

Three sectors within four tenths of a point of each other. Healthcare and financials both gained more than 2% this week, and bank results Tuesday are the next test for the financials leg.

THOR AdaptiveRisk Dynamic — As of 10/9/26

The mix runs 46.0% equity, 18.4% alternatives, 14.8% commodity, 14.5% specialty currency and 6.3% fixed income. Commodities, the energy fund and Exxon add up to about a quarter of the portfolio, its direct line to a week when Brent topped $105. The long dollar position held at 14.5%.

Weekend Reading

Behind the Ticker — Why Producers Fell From 35% of the S&P to 5%, with Doug Daly of Core Commodity Management. Daly is a managing director and portfolio manager at a firm that does nothing but commodities. In the late 1970s, companies that produce energy, materials and food were about 35% of the S&P 500. Today they're about 5%, and he explains why owning the broad index doesn't give you real exposure to the physical economy.

Oil jumps 5% as Hormuz tanker attacks escalate, US Gulf hurricane shuts in production (Oil & Gas Journal, October 8). The numbers behind Thursday's spike. Hormuz flows fell to about 4 million barrels a day Tuesday. Gulf operators shut in more than 500,000 barrels a day ahead of Hurricane Isaias.

US bank investors to focus on impact of higher rates, deals outlook in Q3 earnings (Reuters, October 8). Tatiana Bautzer and Pritam Biswas set up Tuesday's reports. Profits at the biggest banks are expected up as much as 20%, but 5% yields are delaying IPOs and raising funding costs.

Consumer sentiment falls to 5-month low as frustration mounts over higher costs (Yahoo Finance, October 9). Brooke DiPalma on Friday's Michigan survey. Mortgage rates near 7.4% and year-ahead inflation expectations at 4.7% explain why the consumer reads so much worse than the stock market.

Quote of the Week

"Markets are strongest when they are broad and weakest when they narrow to a handful of blue-chip names."

— Bob Farrell, Merrill Lynch, "10 Market Rules to Remember," Rule 7

Brad Roth / CIO, THOR Financial Technologies

This content reflects the opinions, analyses, and research of THOR Financial Technologies as of the date published. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon as the basis for any investment decision. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, and all investments involve risk. For more information, please go to: thorft.com