Nvidia Fell 2.9%. Eight of Eleven Sectors Went Up

Brad Roth
October 09, 2026

TL;DR

• The equal-weight S&P 500 beat the regular index by a full percentage point Thursday. Nvidia fell 2.94% and the Nasdaq 100 1.34%, while eight of eleven sectors rose.

• The index strategy holds the Nasdaq 100, the S&P 500 and the Dow near a third each. The Dow's gain offset part of the Nasdaq 100's drop.

• Futures are higher, led by the Nasdaq 100 at 0.71%. The ten-year is 5.238%, well off Thursday morning's 5.353%, and Michigan sentiment lands at 10:00.

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Market Pulse

Futures as of 7:13 AM ET, currencies as of 7:08 AM ET, rates as of 7:18 to 7:25 AM ET, commodities as of 7:21 AM ET

• S&P 500 futures are up 0.33% at 7,841.75.

• Nasdaq 100 futures add 0.71% at 31,189.50.

• Dow futures are up 0.05% at 51,519.00.

• Russell 2000 futures are up 0.27% at 2,817.20.

Thursday split in two. The S&P 500 fell 0.42% and the Nasdaq 100 1.34%. The Dow rose 0.12% and small caps finished flat. Eight of eleven sectors gained. Energy led at 2.97%, then consumer staples at 2.10%. Technology finished last, down 1.79%.

• Brent is $102.83, down 1.39%. West Texas is $90.57, down 1.01%.

• Gold is $4,207.51, up 1.22%. Silver is up 2.01% at $60.62, and copper 1.88%.

• The three-month bill yields 4.149%, the two-year 4.785%, the ten-year 5.238% and the thirty-year 5.617%.

• Euro/dollar is 1.1207. The dollar buys 158.30 yen, up 0.27%. Volatility futures are 17.27, down 2.01%. Bitcoin is $82,572, flat.

• The DAX is up 1.06% and the Nikkei 1.10%. Italian industrial production fell 1.3% in August against a flat forecast.

• Michigan consumer sentiment lands at 10:00, expected at 47.5 against 48.1 last month. Fed President Collins speaks at 4:00.

THOR Risk Gauge

Slightly bullish. The index strategy is fully invested across the three major American indexes. The even-weight strategy holds 60.3% in three sectors and 40.3% in Treasury bills. Futures are green, the ten-year is 12 basis points off Thursday morning's high, and crude is lower. Fed officials still talking up more hikes keep it from leaning further.

The THOR View

Thursday was a good day for the average stock. The S&P 500 sizes each company by market value, so a handful of chip and software giants steer it. Nvidia fell 2.94% and technology fell 1.79%. The regular index lost 0.42%. The equal-weight version, which gives every company the same slot, rose 0.60%. Energy, staples, financials, real estate and communication services all gained at least 0.69%.

That gap is the case for spreading money evenly. The index strategy holds the Nasdaq 100 at 33.95%, the S&P 500 at 33.32% and the Dow at 32.90%. The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.34% Thursday, but it's only a third of the portfolio. The Dow rose 0.12% and took up part of the slack. This morning the order flips. Nasdaq 100 futures lead at 0.71% and Dow futures sit near flat. Even thirds put both days in the portfolio.

The even-weight strategy applies the same rule one level down. It owns technology at 20.4%, healthcare at 19.95% and financials at 19.94%. Technology closed 2.7% under its 52-week high after Thursday's drop, and it slipped from 20.7% of the portfolio to 20.4%. Financials rose 0.89% and climbed to nearly the same size as healthcare. In the regular S&P 500, technology is the biggest sector by a wide margin. Here it gets a fifth, the same as the other two.

Rates helped. The ten-year touched 5.353% Thursday morning and closed at 5.229%. It's 5.238% now. Copper is up 1.88% this morning with crude lower. Industrial metals up and oil down is the friendlier mix for the rest of the market.

Signal Watch

THOR Index Rotation — As of 10/8/26

Fully invested in three near-equal pieces. Thursday's split between the Nasdaq 100 and the Dow shows why. Each index is a third of the portfolio.

THOR Low Volatility — As of 10/8/26

Three sectors within half a point of each other. Technology gave back some size Thursday and financials picked it up, so the three are close to even again.

THOR AdaptiveRisk Dynamic — As of 10/8/26

The mix runs 45.9% equity, 18.4% alternatives, 14.8% commodity, 14.5% specialty currency and 6.5% fixed income. The energy fund grew to 6.9% after energy's 2.97% gain, and Exxon rose to 3.1%. The market-neutral anti-beta fund, built to gain when high fliers lag, rose to 3.0% on a day the chip names fell.

One Thing to Watch

Michigan's survey at 10:00 carries one-year inflation expectations, 4.6% last month. A higher read backs the Fed officials calling for more hikes. This morning's Nasdaq 100 bounce is the move most exposed, and the Nasdaq 100 is 34.0% of the index strategy.

Brad Roth / CIO, THOR Financial Technologies

This content reflects the opinions, analyses, and research of THOR Financial Technologies as of the date published. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon as the basis for any investment decision. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, and all investments involve risk. For more information, please go to: thorft.com