Chips Slid for a Second Day. The Dow Went the Other Way

Nasdaq 100 futures are down 0.7% and Dow futures are up 0.4% as the big banks and UnitedHealth report. The index strategy owns all three indexes in even thirds, and the Dow is the one built on banks and health care.

Brad Roth
October 13, 2026

TL;DR

• Chip stocks fell 2.05% Monday and are lower again this morning. Dow futures are up 226 points, and the index strategy owns all three indexes in even thirds.

• UnitedHealth raised its 2026 profit forecast and jumped 2.8% before the open. Healthcare is 20.3% of the even-weight strategy.

• JPMorgan missed on bond trading but grew deal fees 14%. Goldman and Citi report later today, and September CPI lands Wednesday at 8:30.

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Market Pulse

Futures as of 7:11 AM ET, commodities and yields as of 7:22 AM ET, currencies as of 7:16 AM ET

• S&P 500 futures are down 0.07% at 7,852.25.

• Nasdaq 100 futures are down 0.68% at 30,688.25.

• Dow futures are up 0.43% at 52,336.00.

• Russell 2000 futures are up 0.30% at 2,820.50.

Monday was mixed. The S&P 500 slipped 0.06% to 7,807.24 and the Dow rose 0.38% to 51,850.55. The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.44%. Eight of eleven sectors rose. Energy led at 1.43% as crude jumped on Houthi strikes against Saudi infrastructure. Technology finished last at minus 1.22%, and chip stocks lost 2.05%.

• Brent is $104.77, down 1.76%. West Texas is $91.93, down 1.93%.

• Gold is $4,209.09, up 0.44%. Copper is up 0.23%.

• The ten-year is 5.182%, down 6.4 basis points from Friday. The two-year is 4.762%.

• Euro/dollar is 1.1188. The dollar buys 158.06 yen. The VIX is 15.47. Bitcoin is $83,260.

• Small business optimism came in at 97.9, under the 98.1 forecast. Existing home sales are due at 10:00.

THOR Risk Gauge

Slightly bullish. The index strategy is fully invested across the three major American indexes. The even-weight strategy holds 60.6% in three sectors and 40.0% in Treasury bills. Yields and oil are both lower this morning and the VIX sits near 15. A two-day chip selloff and Wednesday's CPI keep it from leaning further.

The THOR View

Chip stocks are sliding for a second day. Investors are questioning what the AI data center buildout costs, and a Chinese memory maker's progress has them asking how fast the gap is closing. Banks and health insurers are reporting at the same time, and Dow futures are up more than 200 points. The S&P 500 sits in the middle, almost flat.

The Dow is the index built for a morning like this. It sizes each stock by share price, not company value. Goldman Sachs closed Monday at $893.95, and in a price-weighted index a high share price means a big say. JPMorgan, Goldman, UnitedHealth and Johnson & Johnson are all Dow members, and all four report this week. The index strategy owns the Dow at 33.1%, next to the S&P 500 at 33.3% and the Nasdaq 100 at 33.7%. A third of the portfolio sits in the index with the most banks and health care in it.

Healthcare had the best news. UnitedHealth earned $4.69 a share against a $4.14 estimate. It raised its 2026 forecast to at least $20.50, and the stock is up 2.8% before the open. Johnson & Johnson beat too but fell 2.9% early. Drug sales rose 7.7%. Device sales grew only 2.5%, with the Middle East weighing on orders. The sector is 20.3% of the even-weight strategy and closed Monday 2.6% under its 52-week high.

Financials got a mixed start. JPMorgan earned $5.57 a share against a $5.92 estimate. Bond trading revenue fell 4% and a $658 million investment loss hit the quarter. Investment banking fees rose 14% to $3 billion. That's where a deal recovery shows up first. Wells Fargo's profit rose on loan growth and higher interest income. The two-year to ten-year spread is about 42 basis points, and banks earn on that gap. Financials are 20.1% of the even-weight strategy, the same slot as healthcare and technology.

Signal Watch

THOR Index Rotation — As of 10/12/26

Fully invested in three near-equal pieces. The Dow rose 0.38% Monday while the Nasdaq 100 fell, and even thirds put both moves in the portfolio.

THOR Low Volatility — As of 10/12/26

Three sectors within two tenths of a point of each other. Healthcare moved to the top slot after rising 0.69% Monday while technology fell 1.22%. Technology is the biggest sector in the regular S&P 500. Here it gets a fifth.

THOR AdaptiveRisk Dynamic — As of 10/12/26

The mix runs 45.8% equity, 18.5% alternatives, 14.9% commodity, 14.5% specialty currency and 6.3% fixed income. Energy comes in two pieces, the sector fund at 6.9% and Exxon Mobil at 3.1%, and Monday's 1.43% energy gain landed on both.

One Thing to Watch

Goldman Sachs and Citigroup report later this morning, with Bank of America and Morgan Stanley Wednesday. Compare Goldman's advisory fees with JPMorgan's 14% gain. Goldman is a heavy name in the Dow, and the Dow is a third of the index strategy.

Brad Roth / CIO, THOR Financial Technologies

This content reflects the opinions, analyses, and research of THOR Financial Technologies as of the date published. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon as the basis for any investment decision. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, and all investments involve risk. For more information, please go to: thorft.com