Bonds Took Monday Off. Banks and CPI Won't

Brad Roth
October 12, 2026

TL;DR

• Monday is quiet by design. Cash Treasuries are closed, futures are flat, and Brent is back near $106.

• Healthcare rose 1.58% Friday after Humana jumped 11.56% on new Medicare star ratings. The even-weight strategy owns the sector at 20.1%.

• The week loads up fast. JPMorgan reports Tuesday before the open and September CPI lands Wednesday at 8:30.

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Market Pulse

Futures as of 7:13 AM ET, commodities and the ten-year as of 7:22 AM ET, currencies as of 6:47 AM ET

• S&P 500 futures are up 0.03% at 7,862.50.

• Nasdaq 100 futures are down 0.23% at 31,036.25.

• Dow futures are up 0.07% at 51,962.00.

• Russell 2000 futures are down 0.04% at 2,821.10.

Friday was broad. The S&P 500 rose 0.60% to 7,811.54 and the Dow 0.87%. The Nasdaq 100 and small caps each gained 0.49%. Nine of eleven sectors rose. Real estate led at 1.86%, then healthcare at 1.58%. Communication services fell 1.51%. SpaceX agreed to buy wireless spectrum for a Starlink phone service, and T-Mobile dropped 13.27%. AT&T and Verizon lost about 10% each.

• Brent is $105.95, up 1.17%. West Texas is $92.92, up 1.16%.

• Gold is $4,195.87, down 0.48%. Copper is up 1.17%.

• The ten-year trades at 5.254% in thin holiday dealing. The two-year closed Friday at 4.791%.

• Euro/dollar is 1.1182. The dollar buys 158.63 yen. Volatility futures are 16.99. Bitcoin is $83,380.

• Canada and Japan are also on holiday. There's no U.S. economic data today.

THOR Risk Gauge

Slightly bullish. The index strategy is fully invested across the three major American indexes. The even-weight strategy holds 60.5% in three sectors and 40.0% in Treasury bills. Friday was a broad up day and volatility is calm. Brent near $106 and a hawkish Fed keep it from leaning further.

The THOR View

Today is a pause before a busy week. The cash bond market is closed for Columbus Day. Canada and Japan are off too. Nothing on the U.S. calendar moves markets. Then JPMorgan reports Tuesday morning, and September CPI comes Wednesday. Monday's quiet gives a clean look at what the portfolios own going in.

Healthcare had the best news Friday. The government released its 2027 star ratings for Medicare Advantage plans. Those ratings decide bonus payments, and Humana got the biggest upgrade. Humana said 95% of its members will be in plans rated four stars or higher, up from 20%. The stock rose 11.56%. Moderna added 14.21% and UnitedHealth 2.25%. The sector gained 1.58% on the day and 2.79% on the week.

The even-weight strategy already owned it. Healthcare is 20.1% of the portfolio, the same slot as technology and financials. The sector closed 3.3% under its 52-week high. Its earnings don't swing much with oil prices or with the ten-year at 5.25%. Drug and insurance demand holds up in most economies. With Brent near $106 and the Fed talking about more hikes, steady sales are worth something.

Financials face the bigger test this week. The sector is 20.0% of the portfolio and rose 0.92% Friday. JPMorgan reports Tuesday before the open, with more big banks behind it. The spread between the two-year and the ten-year is about 46 basis points, and banks earn on that gap. Wednesday's CPI then sets the tone for rates into the Fed meeting on October 28.

The index strategy holds its three indexes within a point of each other. The Nasdaq 100 is 33.9%, the S&P 500 33.3% and the Dow 33.0%. The Dow led Friday at 0.87%. This morning Dow futures are slightly higher and Nasdaq 100 futures slightly lower. Even thirds keep both sides of that split in the portfolio.

Signal Watch

THOR Index Rotation — As of 10/9/26

Fully invested in three near-equal pieces. All three indexes rose Friday, with the Dow in front. Each index is about a third of the portfolio.

THOR Low Volatility — As of 10/9/26

Three sectors within half a point of each other. Healthcare's Friday gain lifted it to 20.1%. Bills hold the other 40.0% at yields above 4%.

THOR AdaptiveRisk Dynamic — As of 10/9/26

The mix runs 46.0% equity, 18.4% alternatives, 14.8% commodity, 14.5% specialty currency and 6.3% fixed income. The commodity fund and the dollar fund are the two largest positions, near 15% each. With Brent above $105 and the yen at 158.63, both sit on the side of this morning's moves.

One Thing to Watch

JPMorgan reports Tuesday before the open. Listen for what it says about loan demand and deal fees with the ten-year above 5.2%. Financials are 20.0% of the even-weight strategy, and the first big bank sets the tone for the rest.

Brad Roth / CIO, THOR Financial Technologies

This content reflects the opinions, analyses, and research of THOR Financial Technologies as of the date published. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon as the basis for any investment decision. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, and all investments involve risk. For more information, please go to: thorft.com