Crude Gave Back $3 Overnight. August's Inflation Report Won't Show It

West Texas is down 3.17% and Brent 3.58% this morning, while August consumer prices are expected to more than triple month over month on the energy that is now unwinding. Utilities is one of six sector positions in the even-weight strategy and the one most tied to where the core rate lands.

Brad Roth
September 11, 2026

TL;DR

• Crude is giving it back. West Texas is off 3.17% at $99.23 and Brent 3.58% at $103.78, after a week that carried both higher.

• August consumer prices land at 8:30. Consensus looks for 0.4% on the month against 0.1% in July, with the core rate easing to 2.4% year over year from 2.5%.

• Both systematic strategies go in near fully invested, 99% in the index strategy and 96% across six sector positions in the even-weight strategy.

Market Pulse

Futures as of 7:25 AM ET.

• Dow futures are up 0.53%.

• S&P 500 futures add 0.50%.

• Nasdaq 100 futures are up 0.53%.

• Russell 2000 futures gain 0.63%.

• Volatility trades at 17.14, down 3.9%.

The S&P 500 closed Thursday at 7,591.70, down 0.58%. The Dow finished at 52,064.10, down 0.60%, and the Nasdaq Composite at 26,081.73, down 0.65%. Small caps fell 1.01%. Two of eleven American sectors closed higher, communication services at 0.60% and staples at 0.05%. Technology was the weakest at 1.41% lower, with materials next at 1.23%.

Crude is the overnight move. West Texas is down 3.17% at $99.23 and Brent down 3.58% at $103.78. Gold slipped 0.61% to $4,380.45, silver 0.89% and copper 0.31%. Treasuries are close to unchanged. The two-year yields 4.566%, the ten-year 4.953% and the thirty-year 5.358%. The euro trades at $1.1592 and the yen at 153.99. Bitcoin is at $76,824, up 0.33%.

THOR Risk Gauge

Firm going in, with the month's largest release still ahead. Both systematic strategies are near fully invested. Volatility is down 3.9% at 17.14 and all four American equity futures are higher, small caps leading at 0.63%. Crude giving back $3 in front of an inflation report is the friendliest setup this morning could have offered.

The THOR View

The index strategy owns the two oldest American benchmarks, split almost evenly, and runs 99% invested. Both handled Thursday better than the growth index did. The broad benchmark fell 0.60% and the price-weighted average 0.63%, against 1.06% for the Nasdaq 100. Technology finished last of the eleven sectors at 1.41% lower. That spread is the argument for owning the wide benchmarks rather than the concentrated one into a morning that reprices the rate path.

Utilities runs 15.6% and answers to 8:30 more directly than anything else the even-weight strategy owns. Regulated cash flows get discounted at the long end, and every Treasury tenor moved higher over the past twenty-four hours. The core rate is what matters to that, not the headline. Consensus has core consumer prices easing to 2.4% year over year from 2.5%, which would be the second month pointing the same way. Michigan publishes one-year inflation expectations at 10:00 against 4.0% last month, and that is the other half of the same question.

Industrials is sized at 15.6% and sits on the right side of this morning's commodity reversal. Machinery, freight and aerospace buy diesel and copper rather than sell them, so West Texas down $3.25 a barrel arrives as margin relief. Copper has steadied after Thursday's 4.39% drop. The sector closed 0.72% lower Thursday, ahead of materials and technology. Energy stays out, and Thursday showed why: crude rallied above $102 while the energy sector finished 0.58% lower, which is a supply move rather than a trend.

Signal Watch

THOR Index Rotation — As of 9/10/26

Half in each benchmark, 99% invested, with the rest in bills. Thursday separated the two by three basis points of return, the closest they have finished in a week. All four American futures contracts sit within thirteen basis points of each other this morning.

THOR Low Volatility — As of 9/10/26

Six sectors sized inside a single point of each other, 16.6% at the top and 15.6% at the bottom. Healthcare and financials are the two largest and were also the two best performers of the six on Thursday. The four at zero have not confirmed.

THOR AdaptiveRisk Dynamic — As of 9/10/26

The actively managed strategy runs 59.0% in equities, 16.0% in commodities, 14.6% in specialty currency exposure, 5.6% in alternatives and 4.6% in rate hedging. The dollar position is the largest single line and the energy fund the second, which is the pairing that moved overnight as crude fell and the euro slipped 0.15%. The gold-linked income position anchors the commodity side at 11.0%.

One Thing to Watch

Consensus at 2.4% year over year on the core rate would be a second consecutive month of easing. That is what takes pressure off the long end, where the ten-year sits at 4.953% and the thirty-year at 5.358%. Utilities and real estate are the two sector positions that answer to that most directly.

Brad Roth / CIO, THOR Financial Technologies

This content reflects the opinions, analyses, and research of THOR Financial Technologies as of the date published. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon as the basis for any investment decision. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, and all investments involve risk. For more information, please go to: thorft.com