Democrats Swept Congress. Futures Flinched, Then Turned Green

Brad Roth
November 04, 2026

TL;DR

• Democrats won the Senate and the House, per the AP, and futures erased the overnight slide. Dow futures lead at 1.58%, and the Dow is the index strategy's largest piece at 34.4%.

• Hospitals and insurers are up as much as 6% before the open, per Reuters. Healthcare is 21.6% of the even-weight strategy.

• Gold is up 2.84% and the VIX is back under 20. ADP lands at 8:15, ISM services at 10:00 and October jobs on Friday.

Market Pulse

Futures as of 7:17 AM ET, commodities as of 7:26 AM ET, yields as of 7:19 AM ET, currencies as of 7:17 AM ET

• S&P 500 futures are up 0.83% at 7,659.75.

• Nasdaq 100 futures are up 0.21% at 28,365.50.

• Dow futures are up 1.58% at 52,716.00.

• Russell 2000 futures are up 1.26% at 2,860.70.

Tuesday went the other way. The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.68% and the S&P 500 0.36%, while the Dow fell 0.38%. Only four of eleven sectors gained. Technology led at 1.31%, then communication services at 1.18%. Consumer staples lost 2.07% and materials 2.01%.

• West Texas is $94.66, down 1.49%. Brent is $101.48, down 2.05%.

• Gold is $4,052.17, up 2.84%. Silver is up 4.66% at $52.07.

• The three-month bill yields 4.133%. The two-year is 4.608%, down 0.6 basis points, and the ten-year 4.914%, down 3.5.

• Euro/dollar is 1.1257. The dollar buys 158.30 yen. The VIX is 18.31, down 12.10%. Bitcoin is near $78,150.

• AMD is up 1.86% before the open at $492.90. Tesla is down 5.81% at $375.35.

• ADP hits at 8:15, with 67,000 jobs expected. Trade data follows at 8:30. ISM services lands at 10:00, with 54.8 expected.

THOR Risk Gauge

Slightly Bullish, one notch up from yesterday. The election is behind us, the VIX fell back under 20 and the ten-year eased 3.5 basis points. Brent above $100, a likely December hike and Friday's jobs report keep it from going further. The index strategy is fully invested, and the even-weight strategy runs 60.6% in stocks with 39.9% in Treasury bills.

The THOR View

The worst of the overnight move came early. Futures dropped 1% to 2.5% as the sweep took shape, on fears of tighter AI rules. Then buyers showed up. The AP has Democrats at 54 Senate seats, with two races uncalled, and 228 in the House. President Trump keeps his veto, so new law now needs both parties.

Healthcare got the cleanest read on the result. HCA is up 3.7% before the open and Universal Health 2.2%, per Reuters. Centene gained 4.5% and Molina 6%. Democrats want more government money in the system. BNP Paribas doubts they have the votes to restore the Affordable Care Act. It sees room for concessions in budget talks. The sector is the even-weight strategy's largest at 21.6%, and it closed Tuesday 2.1% under its 52-week high.

The Dow took the lead back this morning, up 1.58% against 0.21% for Nasdaq 100 futures. Tesla, down 5.81%, sits in the Nasdaq 100 and not the Dow. Tuesday ran the other way. Three near-equal pieces means the index strategy doesn't have to guess which one wins the morning... 34.4% Dow, 33.6% S&P 500, 32.2% Nasdaq 100.

Gold is back over $4,050 as the euro climbs 0.59%, and the odds of a December hike rose anyway. Fed funds futures put them at 81.4%, up from 77.4% yesterday. Bills are 39.9% of the even-weight strategy, and a hike goes straight into new bills as the old ones mature.

Technology is 18.1% after leading Tuesday's market. AMD guided fourth-quarter sales to about $17 billion, though the stock gave back most of an early 7% pop. Data-center builders are lower on the oversight talk.

Signal Watch

THOR Index Rotation — As of 11/3/26

Fully invested in all three. Tuesday's split narrowed the Dow's lead over the Nasdaq 100 to 2.2 points, from 2.5 on Monday.

THOR Low Volatility — As of 11/3/26

Three sectors near a fifth each, with 39.9% in bills yielding about 4.1%. Technology grew to 18.1% from 17.8% on Tuesday's gain. The system owns trends that have confirmed, and the rest stays out.

THOR AdaptiveRisk Dynamic — As of 11/3/26

The mix runs 71.2% equity, 10.6% fixed income, 10.0% alternatives, 5.4% commodity and 2.7% specialty currency. The energy sector fund and Exxon Mobil add up to 13.7%, the largest single theme. The anti-beta fund and rate hedge don't move with the broad market day to day.

One Thing to Watch

ISM services at 10:00, and the prices piece most of all. It ran 74.0 last month, and a hot number leans on that 81.4% hike bet. Bills are where the even-weight strategy would collect that hike.

Brad Roth / CIO, THOR Financial Technologies

This content reflects the opinions, analyses, and research of THOR Financial Technologies as of the date published. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon as the basis for any investment decision. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, and all investments involve risk. For more information, please go to: thorft.com