Employers Announced 52,881 Job Cuts Last Month. The Atlanta Fed Says Growth Is Running 4.8%

Challenger's August tally ran 58% above July's while the third-quarter growth tracker sits near 5%, and the yen rose 1.6% overnight on expectations the Bank of Japan tightens again. Industrials is one of six sector positions in the even-weight strategy.

Brad Roth
September 03, 2026

TL;DR

• Challenger counted 52,881 announced job cuts in August against 33,429 in July, and ADP put private hiring at 38,000 Wednesday against a consensus near 47,000. Jobless claims land at 8:30 with consensus at 205,000, and the government's August payroll report follows Friday.

• The yen rose 1.64% against the dollar overnight, and every American maturity came down with it. The ten-year yields 4.772% and the thirty-year 5.249%, both roughly two basis points lower.

• ISM services arrives at ten with consensus at 54.2, and the Atlanta Fed's third-quarter growth tracker sits at 4.8%. Futures put roughly 60% odds on a Federal Reserve increase on September 16, against 36% a week ago.

Market Pulse

As of 7:25 AM ET, 9/3/26

• S&P 500 futures are up 0.08%.

• Nasdaq 100 futures are off 0.05%.

• Dow futures are up 0.21%.

• Russell 2000 futures are down 0.10%.

Wednesday closed higher across the board. The S&P 500 finished at 7,666.60, up 0.46%, the Nasdaq Composite at 26,217.83, up 0.45%, the Dow at 53,061.95, up 0.56%, and the Russell 2000 at 2,953.17, up 1.13%. Nine of the eleven American sectors gained.

The 10-year Treasury yields 4.772%, the 2-year 4.361% and the 30-year 5.249%. WTI trades at $92.51 and Brent at $96.67, both up more than a percent. Gold is $4,477.36 an ounce, up 1.4%, silver $66.32 and copper $6.62. Volatility runs near 15.3. Bitcoin trades near $77,850. The dollar buys 156.11 yen, down 1.64%, and the euro buys $1.1607 with the dollar index at 99.17. The Nikkei fell 0.89% overnight and the Hang Seng 0.77%.

THOR Risk Gauge

Constructive. Wednesday was broad, small caps led at 1.13%, and volatility sits near 15.3. The whole American curve is lower this morning, which takes pressure off every rate-sensitive position at once. Against that, a September increase is roughly 60% priced and Brent trades at $96.67, so the input-cost problem has not gone anywhere.

The THOR View

American employers announced 52,881 job cuts in August, up from 33,429 in July. ADP put private hiring at 38,000 Wednesday against a consensus near 47,000, with July revised to 46,000. Jobless claims are expected at 205,000. Set that against the Atlanta Fed's third-quarter growth tracker at 4.8% and an ISM services survey expected at 54.2 this morning, with business activity last at 59.1. Output is running well ahead of hiring. Industrials is 15.5% of the even-weight strategy, and machinery, freight and aerospace answer to the order book rather than to the payroll number.

The yen rose 1.64% overnight to 156.11 per dollar on expectations the Bank of Japan tightens again, and the Nikkei fell 0.89%. Every American maturity came down with it. The two-year yields 4.361%, the ten-year 4.772% and the thirty-year 5.249%. Gold rose 1.42% to $4,477.36 as the dollar index slipped to 99.17. Utilities is the smallest of the six sector positions at 15.3% and gained 0.26% Wednesday. It is the position with the most duration in it, and the long end has finally given some ground.

Materials led all eleven American sectors Wednesday at 1.69% and is 16.5% of the even-weight strategy, second only to healthcare at 16.9%. The six sector positions sit between 15.3% and 16.9%, so no single sector read decides a session. The index strategy runs 99% invested across the two American averages at 50.2% and 48.9%. The even-weight strategy holds 4.1% in bills, which pay 3.87% on three-month paper while the front end reprices.

Signal Watch

THOR Index Rotation — As of 9/2/26

The two American averages take roughly half the strategy each. Wednesday moved them together for once, with the thirty-name average up 0.56% and the broad index up 0.46%.

THOR Low Volatility — As of 9/2/26

Materials, financials, industrials and real estate carry the cyclical side, healthcare and utilities the defensive one. That split is why a growth number and a rate number do not pull the strategy in the same direction. The four at zero have not confirmed a trend the system owns.

THOR AdaptiveRisk Dynamic — As of 9/2/26

The actively managed strategy runs 59.3% in equities, 15.9% in commodities, 14.6% in specialty currency exposure, 5.6% in alternatives and 4.5% in rate hedging. The three largest positions are a long dollar position, an energy position and a gold income strategy, so the top of the strategy is macro rather than equity. The currency position is the one this morning's yen move works against.

One Thing to Watch

ISM services at ten carries the employment component, which read 47.4 last month against business activity at 59.1. A services sector expanding while it stops hiring is the same split the Challenger and ADP numbers described this week. Friday's payroll report settles it, and healthcare at 16.9% is the position least tied to the answer.

From the same desk — THOR Signals reads the regime on the whole market and any name your clients hold, three horizons, every market evening, with the price where each read turns. See it at thorsignals.com.

Brad Roth / CIO, THOR Financial Technologies

This content reflects the opinions, analyses, and research of THOR Financial Technologies as of the date published. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon as the basis for any investment decision. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, and all investments involve risk. For more information, please go to: thorft.com