Volatility Sits Near a One-Year Low. Last Month's Jobs Number Was Negative

The August payroll report lands at 8:30 with consensus at 55,000 after July came in at minus 23,000, and the volatility index closed at 14.32 against a 52-week low of 13.38. Healthcare and financials are the two largest of six sector positions in the even-weight strategy.

Brad Roth
September 04, 2026

TL;DR

• August payrolls arrive at 8:30 with consensus at 55,000, after July finished at minus 23,000. Unemployment is expected to stay at 4.1% and average hourly earnings to slow to 3.0% on the year from 3.2%.

• The volatility index closed Thursday at 14.32 and trades near 14.13 this morning, three-quarters of a point above its 52-week low.

• Thursday was broad. Eight of the eleven American sectors closed higher, financials led at 1.56%, and both strategies went into this morning near fully invested.

Market Pulse

As of 7:28 AM ET, 9/4/26

• S&P 500 futures are up 0.05%.

• Nasdaq 100 futures add 0.47%.

• Dow futures are down 0.11%.

• Russell 2000 futures are off 0.02%.

Thursday closed higher across the board. The S&P 500 finished at 7,747.71, up 1.06%, the Nasdaq Composite at 26,584.06, up 1.40%, the Dow at 53,686.11, up 1.18%, and the Russell 2000 at 2,968.27, up 0.51%. Eight of the eleven American sectors gained.

The 10-year Treasury yields 4.763%, the 2-year 4.352% and the 30-year 5.245%. WTI trades at $90.63 and Brent at $95.06, both lower. Gold is $4,512.66 an ounce, down 0.6% after gaining 2.8% Thursday, silver $67.39 and copper $6.66. Volatility runs near 14.1. Bitcoin trades near $81,280, up 4.3%. The dollar buys 156.30 yen and the euro buys $1.1622, with the dollar index at 99.07. The Nikkei rose 1.28% overnight and the Hang Seng 1.74%.

THOR Risk Gauge

Bullish. Thursday carried eight of eleven American sectors higher and small caps came along at 0.51%. Volatility near 14.1 and 41 basis points between the two-year and the ten-year describe a market not pricing much difficulty. Both strategies went into this morning near fully invested, at 99% and 96%.

The THOR View

The August employment report arrives at 8:30 with consensus at 55,000. July finished at minus 23,000, and government payrolls accounted for a 53,000 decline inside that month. Set that against a volatility index at 14.13, three-quarters of a point above the lowest reading in a year. Almost nothing is priced for a number whose last reading was below zero. The even-weight strategy went into this morning with six sector positions between 15.4% and 16.8%, and financials, materials and industrials answer to a growth number in a way that healthcare, utilities and real estate do not.

Thursday's advance came with the entire curve lower. The two-year fell roughly five basis points, the ten-year three and the thirty-year two, and gold gained 2.84% to close near $4,540. Both of those respond to real rates rather than to growth. This morning gives a little back, with gold off 0.60% and the two-year up to 4.352%. Utilities and real estate are the two positions valued most directly off the long end, at 15.4% and 15.6%, and both closed higher Thursday at 0.84% and 1.19%.

Financials led all eleven American sectors Thursday at 1.56% and is 16.5% of the even-weight strategy, second to healthcare at 16.8%. The spread between the two-year and the ten-year sits at 41 basis points, and that shape is what lending earns on. Healthcare was the quietest of the six positions Thursday at 0.18%, the trade-off in carrying the largest position on a session that rewarded risk. The index strategy is 99% invested across the two American averages, with the balance in bills paying near 3.87% on three-month paper.

Signal Watch

THOR Index Rotation — As of 9/3/26

The two American averages take roughly half each. Thursday moved them close to together, with the growth-heavy composite up 1.40% against the thirty-name average at 1.18%.

THOR Low Volatility — As of 9/3/26

Six sectors at roughly equal size, split between three that track the growth cycle and three valued off the long end. A hot employment number and a cold one do not pull those two groups the same way. The four at zero have not confirmed a trend the system owns.

THOR AdaptiveRisk Dynamic — As of 9/3/26

The actively managed strategy runs 59.3% in equities, 15.9% in commodities, 14.4% in specialty currency exposure, 5.8% in alternatives and 4.4% in rate hedging. The three largest positions are a long dollar position, an energy position and a gold income strategy, so the top of the strategy is macro rather than equity. The dollar index is firmer this morning at 99.07 while crude is off 0.73%, pulling those two apart.

One Thing to Watch

Average hourly earnings at 8:30 matter more than the headline count. Consensus is 0.3% on the month and 3.0% on the year against 3.2% last month, and wages above 3% keep a September increase in play with the payroll count near zero. Financials at 16.5% is the position most exposed to which of those two numbers the long end decides to follow.

From the same desk — THOR Signals reads the regime on the whole market and any name your clients hold, three horizons, every market evening, with the price where each read turns. See it at thorsignals.com.

Brad Roth / CIO, THOR Financial Technologies

This content reflects the opinions, analyses, and research of THOR Financial Technologies as of the date published. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon as the basis for any investment decision. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, and all investments involve risk. For more information, please go to: thorft.com