Futures Reverse Overnight. Oil Holds $95.

TL;DR

Futures opened sharply lower overnight — S&P 500 hit 6,640, Nasdaq touched 24,397 — as Iran escalated Hormuz threats and European banks sold off. By morning, all three indexes clawed back to roughly flat after Trump said the Iran campaign is moving "very rapidly" and the US authorized Russian oil sales at sea. Both THOR strategies remain near-full equity exposure with Nasdaq and three sectors off. PPI prints at 8:30 AM.

Market Pulse

Futures as of 7:40 AM ET

• S&P 500 futures: +0.16% at 6,688 — after trading as low as 6,640 overnight

• Dow futures: +0.18% at 47,099

• Nasdaq 100 futures: +0.12% at 24,802 — bounced nearly 400 points off the overnight low of 24,397

The overnight session was ugly. Asia sold off hard — Nikkei fell 2%, Kospi dropped nearly 3%. European banks got hammered: Deutsche Bank fell 5.3% after disclosing $30 billion in private credit exposure, UniCredit and BNP each off close to 4%. Adobe cratered 18% premarket after its CEO departed.

The reversal started around 4 AM ET. Two catalysts: Trump told reporters the Iran operation is moving "very rapidly" and "doing very well," signaling a faster resolution timeline. Separately, the US authorized Russian oil sales at sea for the second time, easing some supply pressure.

WTI crude sits at $95.47, essentially flat on the session. Brent is above $101. Gold pulled back to $5,100, down half a percent. The 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.27%, its fourth straight daily increase. Bitcoin around $70,500.

On deck: PPI at 8:30 AM (consensus 0.5% MoM, core 0.8%), initial jobless claims, and housing starts. After Wednesday's sticky CPI, a hot PPI would kill remaining rate-cut expectations for the first half.

THOR Risk Gauge

Nine of thirteen risk-on signals active across both strategies. Equity exposure near full capacity. The system hasn't triggered a defensive shift despite this week's volatility.

The THOR View

Oil is up 28% in nine trading days. European banks are getting pounded. Nasdaq is leading the way down for the third straight week. The system is sitting at near-full equity exposure.

The Dow and S&P 500 continue to hold risk-on status. Seven of ten sectors in the low-volatility strategy remain risk-on. The system rotated out of tech, financials, and real estate weeks ago, before this latest escalation. Energy at 16.25% is the largest sector position, catching the crude rally.

The three sectors that are off — tech, financials, real estate — share one thing: rate sensitivity. With 10-year yields climbing four straight days and oil-driven inflation uncertainty on the tape, that's the part of the market most exposed to repricing.

Today's PPI number matters. After Wednesday's CPI showed inflation refusing to cooperate, a hot producer price print would push rate-cut expectations further out. A cool number gives the overnight recovery more room. Either way, the system processes the data and holds or adjusts — it doesn't react to overnight panic sessions.

Signal Watch

THOR Index Rotation

Holdings as of 3/12/26

THOR Low Volatility

Holdings as of 3/12/26

One Thing to Watch

PPI at 8:30 AM. After Wednesday's CPI showed inflation refusing to cooperate, a hot producer price number would all but kill the "two cuts by June" narrative. The 10-year has risen four straight days to 4.27%. If PPI surprises to the upside, watch rates markets more than equities — that's where the real repricing happens.

Brad Roth
CIO, THOR Financial Technologies

This content reflects the opinions, analyses, and research of THOR Financial Technologies as of the date published. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon as the basis for any investment decision. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, and all investments involve risk. For more information, please go to: thorft.com