Oil Past $95, Hormuz on Lockdown.

TL;DR

Oil surged past $95 as the Strait of Hormuz crisis deepened, the S&P 500 dropped nearly 2% on Wednesday, and futures are pointing lower again this morning. THOR Index Rotation remains split between the Dow and S&P 500 with Nasdaq turned off, while THOR Low Volatility has seven sectors risk-on, led by Energy at nearly 16%. The system identified these trends before the headlines confirmed them.

Market Pulse

Futures as of 6:30 AM ET:

• S&P 500 futures: -0.92%

• Dow futures: -1.06%

• Nasdaq 100 futures: -0.94%

Wednesday's close:

• S&P 500: 5,682 (-1.94%)

• Dow: 40,113 (-2.18%)

• Nasdaq Composite: 17,892 (-2.49%)

WTI crude hit $94.91 per barrel yesterday, up nearly 9% on the session and over 50% in the past month. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed to commercial tanker traffic. Iran struck two tankers in Iraqi waters and Oman evacuated its main export terminal. The IEA coordinated a record 400-million-barrel reserve release from member nations. Markets shrugged it off.

Gold sits at $5,165 per ounce, consolidating near all-time highs. Bitcoin hovers around $70,000, down 26% on the year. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to roughly 4.45%, its highest in two months, adding pressure to growth names. The VIX closed at 22.5.

On deck today: Initial jobless claims, PPI, housing starts, the IEA Oil Market Report, and Adobe earnings after the bell.

THOR Risk Gauge

Bullish

Both funds are near full equity exposure with 9 of 13 total positions risk-on across indexes and sectors. The allocation tilts toward cyclicals and defensives, away from growth. Positioning is stable with no changes from prior weeks.

The THOR View

The Strait of Hormuz is now the dominant force in global markets. A fifth of the world's oil trade normally passes through that chokepoint, and it is effectively shut down. Iran's retaliatory strikes on tankers, the Oman port evacuation, and threats to block all regional exports have pushed crude to levels not seen since the 2022 spike. Strategic reserve releases bought some time, but the market is telling you reserves alone do not solve a supply disruption of this scale.

This is a supply shock, not a demand story.

THOR Low Volatility has Energy as its largest sector allocation at nearly 16%, with Materials, Industrials, Consumer Staples, Utilities, Consumer Discretionary, and Healthcare all carrying double-digit weights. The three sectors turned off - Technology, Financials, and Real Estate - are the ones getting hit hardest in a rising-rate, rising-oil environment.

THOR Index Rotation tells the same story from a different angle. Nasdaq has been off for weeks, with that weight redistributed evenly between the Dow and S&P 500. Semiconductors led Wednesday's decline. Reduced Nasdaq exposure is doing real work right now.

The risk from here is stagflation. Oil above $95 with inflation data running above target constrains the Fed. Rate cuts get pushed further out. Growth stocks, which need lower rates to justify their valuations, take the hit. Value and commodity-linked sectors benefit.

Signal Watch

THOR Index Rotation

Holdings as of 3/11/26

THOR Low Volatility

Holdings as of 3/11/26

One Thing to Watch

The IEA Oil Market Report drops today. If the agency signals that strategic reserves are insufficient to offset the Hormuz disruption, oil could push toward $100 and the stagflation trade accelerates. If they project supply adequacy, energy stocks may pause and the broader market gets a relief bid. The system is already positioned with Energy as its largest weight and zero Nasdaq exposure.

Brad Roth
CIO, THOR Financial Technologies

This content reflects the opinions, analyses, and research of THOR Financial Technologies as of the date published. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon as the basis for any investment decision. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, and all investments involve risk. For more information, please go to: thorft.com