Mortgage Rates Crossed Back Over 7%. Nobody Told the Growth Data

Germany's services number beat by three points and the ten-year backed up to 4.971%. Financials was the weakest of the eleven American sectors yesterday, Materials the strongest, and the even-weight strategy owns both.

Brad Roth
September 23, 2026

TL;DR

• The 30-year mortgage rate is 7.12%, up from 6.97% a week ago. Purchase applications slipped to 154.9 and refinancings to 611.0.

• Europe's growth data beat almost everywhere. German services came in at 52.9 against 49.9 expected, and European equities fell about a point anyway.

• The ten-year yields 4.971%, up 2.3 basis points, while the two-year barely moved. Gold is down 0.58% and silver 1.25%.

Market Pulse

Futures as of 7:12 AM ET

• S&P 500 futures are up 0.04% at 7,834.75.

• Nasdaq 100 futures slip 0.08% at 31,004.75.

• Dow futures are down 0.02% at 52,271.00.

• Russell 2000 futures fall 0.37% at 2,903.40.

Tuesday was narrow again. The S&P 500 finished 0.02% lower, the Nasdaq 100 rose 0.81% and the Dow lost 0.34%. Six of the eleven American sectors closed green. Materials led at 1.65%, Financials was last at 1.97% lower.

• West Texas trades $90.13, down 0.43%. Brent is $99.75, up 0.50%.

• Natural gas is $3.044, up 2.66%, and gasoline $3.5314, up 1.26%.

• Gold is $4,350.80, down 0.58%. Silver is $65.70 and platinum fell 2.05%.

• The two-year yields 4.781%, the ten-year 4.971% and the thirty-year 5.303%.

• The dollar index is 100.575 and euro/dollar 1.1420. Volatility is 17.45. Bitcoin trades $85,540, down 0.78%.

THOR Risk Gauge

Leaning positive. Both systematic strategies came in near fully invested, the index strategy at 98.9% and the even-weight strategy at 95.7% across six sectors. The one live tension is a ten-year at 4.971% pressing on the rate-sensitive end of that mix. Growth data that keeps beating is what's holding the long end up, and strong growth is the better half of that trade.

The THOR View

Financials fell 1.97% yesterday, the worst of the eleven American sectors. Materials rose 1.65%, the best. The even-weight strategy owns both, at 16.0% and 16.3%, and that's the whole design case in a single session. Six sectors sit between 15.0% and 17.1%, a spread of two points, so no one sector gets to decide the day. The equal-weight version of the broad index closed 0.06% higher while the cap-weighted version finished 0.02% lower. Narrow markets are where that construction earns its keep.

There was no bank-specific news behind that move. No credit event, no regulatory action, no earnings warning. What did happen is that the long end backed up while the short end sat still. The ten-year is 4.971% this morning, up 2.3 basis points, and the two-year is 4.781%, up less than half of one. Banks earn the difference between what they pay short and what they lend long, and that gap widened into the selling rather than away from it. The 30-year mortgage rate at 7.12% is the same curve showing up on the consumer's side of the ledger. Barr, the Fed's vice chair for supervision, speaks at 10:05.

Europe's growth data beat almost everywhere this morning and its stock markets sold anyway. France swung its services number from 48.0 to 51.4 against a 48.3 forecast, and the euro zone composite hit 53.1 against 51.7. The DAX is down 0.79% and Milan 1.02%. Good data now reads as a reason for rates to stay put, which is the same pressure sitting on the long end here. The index strategy answers that with 98.9% invested in American large-cap and under a point in cash.

Signal Watch

THOR Index Rotation — As of 9/22/26

Near fully invested at 98.9%, split almost evenly between the two broad American indexes. Cash is under a point. Owning both weighting schemes is what keeps the strategy from needing a handful of names to carry a session.

THOR Low Volatility — As of 9/22/26

Six sectors, 95.7% invested, and the whole range fits inside two points. Healthcare and Utilities are the defensive bookends, with three cyclicals and real estate between them. The four sectors at zero haven't confirmed the trend the system requires.

THOR AdaptiveRisk Dynamic — As of 9/22/26

The mix runs 59.2% equity, 15.6% commodity, 14.6% specialty currency and 4.5% fixed income, with the balance in alternatives. The dollar position is the largest single line and it's the one paying this morning, with the index at 100.575 and the euro, pound and Australian dollar all lower. The gold and broad-commodity lines sit on the other side of that trade.

One Thing to Watch

The S&P Global flash PMIs for the United States land at 9:45. Services consensus is 55.8 against 56.5 last month, manufacturing 53.6 against 53.9. Europe just demonstrated what a beat does to a market that has stopped wanting good news, and the American read lands on Industrials, 15.7% of the even-weight strategy.

Brad Roth / CIO, THOR Financial Technologies

This content reflects the opinions, analyses, and research of THOR Financial Technologies as of the date published. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon as the basis for any investment decision. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, and all investments involve risk. For more information, please go to: thorft.com