The Curve Fell for a Second Morning. The Treasury Sells Two-Year Notes at 1:00

Brent broke back under $100 and West Texas is six dollars below where it traded Friday morning. Every Treasury maturity is lower again, which lands directly on the most rate-sensitive of the six sector positions in the even-weight strategy.

Brad Roth
September 22, 2026

TL;DR

• Futures are flat after Monday's rally. The S&P 500 is unchanged and the Nasdaq 100 up 0.01%, while Dow futures add 0.14% and the Russell 2000 0.36%.

• The whole curve fell for a second straight morning. The ten-year at 4.937% is back under 5%. The two-year yields 4.734% into a 1:00 auction, and the last one cleared at 4.315%.

• West Texas trades $90.17, down 2.38%, and Brent $98.42. The most recent weekly inventory report showed a 7.14 million barrel build.

Market Pulse

Futures as of 7:27 AM ET

• S&P 500 futures are flat at 7,833.25.

• Nasdaq 100 futures add 0.01% at 30,787.00.

• Dow futures are up 0.14% at 52,546.00.

• Russell 2000 futures gain 0.36% at 2,907.70.

Monday was a strong session. The S&P 500 rose 1.55%, the Nasdaq 100 2.77%, the Dow 0.76% and the Russell 2000 0.52%. The gain was narrow. The S&P 500 beat its own equal-weight version by 1.37 points.

• West Texas trades $90.17, down 2.38%. Brent is $98.42, down 1.91%.

• Copper is $6.8485, up 1.27%. Gold is $4,354.65, down 0.67%, and silver $66.02, down 0.60%.

• The two-year yields 4.734%, the ten-year 4.937% and the thirty-year 5.271%. Every maturity is lower.

• The dollar index is 100.40 and dollar/yen 157.13. Volatility is 17.77. Bitcoin trades $85,987, down 0.73%.

THOR Risk Gauge

Constructive. Both systematic strategies came in near fully invested. The index strategy is 98.9% across two American benchmarks, the even-weight strategy 95.6% across six sectors. Volatility at 17.77 is lower again and the entire Treasury curve has fallen two mornings running.

The THOR View

The curve fell again overnight, and the position that answers to it most directly is real estate at 15.6%. Property gets valued off a discount rate. For most of this month the ten-year sat above 5%, and that math worked against every landlord in the index. This morning the ten-year is 4.937% and the five-year 4.807%. Both are down about two and a half basis points, and both fell the session before. Real estate has been the weakest of the six positions over the past month. The rate move that did the damage is the one now running in reverse.

The index strategy runs two different maps of the same market, 50.8% in the S&P 500 and 48.0% in the Dow. Monday paid the first one. This morning it's the other way around. Dow futures are up 0.14% and the Russell 2000 0.36% while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 sit still. Owning both maps means the strategy doesn't need to guess which of those two mornings shows up next.

Two of this morning's commodity moves land on the same position. Materials at 16.0% sells metals and buys energy, and copper is up 1.27% at $6.8485 while West Texas is down 2.38%. Both directions help the same margin. Crude is six dollars below where it traded Friday morning, and the most recent weekly report showed a 7.14 million barrel build. That's supply arriving rather than demand leaving, and it's why the energy sector has stayed out.

Signal Watch

THOR Index Rotation — As of 9/21/26

Roughly half in each American benchmark, 98.9% invested, the rest in bills. Monday separated the two by 0.79 points in favor of the S&P 500. This morning the Dow is the one bid, which is the argument for carrying both.

THOR Low Volatility — As of 9/21/26

Six sectors sized between 15.0% and 17.0%, with the rest in bills. Healthcare is the largest and sells into demand the cycle doesn't set. The other five answer to credit, production, commodity prices and the curve, and the curve is what's moving this week.

THOR AdaptiveRisk Dynamic — As of 9/21/26

The actively managed strategy runs 59.2% in equities, 15.6% in commodities, 14.5% in specialty currency exposure, 6.1% in alternatives and 4.5% in rate hedging. The dollar position remains the largest single holding, with the index at 100.40 and barely moved overnight. A gold income position and a rate hedge both sit in the top ten. That's a second way of expressing the same curve that moved this morning.

One Thing to Watch

The Richmond Fed's manufacturing index lands at 10:00, with 2 expected against 4 last month. The even-weight strategy carries industrials at 15.7%, about a point under its two-hundred-day average. That's the closest it has come all month. The bigger test is 1:00, when the Treasury sells two-year notes against a 4.734% yield and a last auction that cleared at 4.315%.

Brad Roth / CIO, THOR Financial Technologies

This content reflects the opinions, analyses, and research of THOR Financial Technologies as of the date published. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon as the basis for any investment decision. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, and all investments involve risk. For more information, please go to: thorft.com