Oil Slid 3% on Iran Talks. Tomorrow's CPI Won't See It

Brad Roth
November 09, 2026

TL;DR

• Futures are higher, led by the Dow, up 0.96%, and the Russell 2000, up 1.26%. West Texas fell 2.97% to $88.13 after President Trump said more strikes on Iran are unlikely if talks progress.

• October CPI lands Tuesday at 8:30, with 3.9% expected for headline and 2.8% for core. Fed funds futures put a December hike near 79%.

• The even-weight strategy owns seven sectors near 14% each, and consumer discretionary has the most to gain from cheaper oil. The index strategy runs half Dow, half S&P 500.

Market Pulse

Futures as of 7:14 AM ET, commodities as of 7:22 AM ET, yields as of 7:24 AM ET, currencies as of 7:21 AM ET

• S&P 500 futures are up 0.59% at 7,445.75.

• Nasdaq 100 futures are up 0.52% at 27,227.00.

• Dow futures are up 0.96% at 51,880.00.

• Russell 2000 futures are up 1.26% at 2,795.40.

Friday ran the other way from Thursday. The S&P 500 rose 0.31%, the Nasdaq 100 1.40% and the Russell 2000 0.99%, while the Dow slipped 0.40%. Three of eleven sectors closed green: technology up 1.45%, communication services 0.43% and industrials 0.12%. Consumer staples lost 1.28%, the weakest of the day.

• West Texas is $88.13, down 2.97%. Brent is $94.81, down 3.57%.

• Gold is $4,123.55, up 1.19%. Silver is up 1.61% at $52.78, and copper is up 1.59%.

• The three-month bill yields 4.108%. The two-year is 4.536%, up 1.4 basis points, and the ten-year is flat at 4.855%.

• Euro/dollar is 1.1189, up 0.44%. The dollar buys 157.92 yen. VIX futures are 22.08, down 6.81%. Bitcoin is near $74,700, down 1.70%.

• The New York Fed's one-year inflation expectations survey hits at 11:00, last at 3.9%. Fed governor Bowman speaks at 8:40, and a 3-year note auction closes at 1:00 PM.

THOR Risk Gauge

Cautious, unchanged from Sunday. The VIX closed Friday at 25.64, and its futures are down 6.81% this morning. A December hike near 79% and Tuesday's CPI keep the read guarded, even with crude falling. The index strategy is 99.4% in stocks and the even-weight strategy 97.6%.

The THOR View

The even-weight strategy owns seven sectors between 13.6% and 14.3%, and Tuesday's inflation report touches all of them. Economists expect October CPI at 3.9%, up from 3.7%, with core at 2.8%, per Investing.com. Core strips out food and energy. Most of that 1.1-point gap is the war showing up at the pump. The report covers October, so it won't see this morning's 3% drop in crude. Energy stays out of the strategy, since this year's oil swings have tracked headlines, not a trend.

Consumer discretionary, 13.6% of the strategy, is the sector closest to cheaper crude. Gas is a tax on the shoppers who buy cars, furniture and trips. Qatar-led talks with Iran ran a third straight day, and crude is down about 3% this morning on hopes they hold. The sector finished Friday down just 0.05%, while staples lost 1.28%. The holiday quarter is starting with oil heading lower, and savings at the pump land in this sector first.

Real estate, 13.9%, cares about the other number. Core is what the Fed reads, and futures already price a December hike near 79%. Friday's hiring beat pushed the two-year higher, and real estate lost 0.68% on the day. This morning the two-year is 4.536%, up 1.4 basis points, and the ten-year is flat. The 1:00 PM 3-year auction tests short-end demand before the report.

The index strategy runs 50.1% Dow and 49.3% S&P 500. Friday the S&P 500 won by 0.7 points as chip stocks bounced. This morning the Dow leads, with futures up 0.96% against 0.59%. Two near-equal pieces... neither one has to be right on any given day.

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Signal Watch

THOR Index Rotation — As of 11/6/26

Two indexes at about half each, fully invested. The Dow eased to 50.1% from 50.3% after Friday's chip-led bounce favored the S&P 500.

THOR Low Volatility — As of 11/6/26

Seven sectors within 0.7 points of each other. Healthcare moved to the top of the table, and staples slipped after Friday's 1.28% drop.

THOR AdaptiveRisk Dynamic — As of 11/6/26

The mix runs 70.6% equity, 10.8% fixed income, 10.4% alternatives, 5.4% commodity and 2.8% specialty currency. The energy fund at 9.2% is the position tied most directly to crude. The rate hedge at 6.5% is the one tied most directly to Tuesday's report.

One Thing to Watch

The New York Fed's survey of one-year inflation expectations lands at 11:00, last at 3.9%. It's the consumer's own read on prices, a day before the official one. A lower number would back up what cheaper crude means for the shoppers behind consumer discretionary, 13.6% of the even-weight strategy.

Brad Roth / CIO, THOR Financial Technologies

This content reflects the opinions, analyses, and research of THOR Financial Technologies as of the date published. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon as the basis for any investment decision. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, and all investments involve risk. For more information, please go to: thorft.com