Waller Floated a Bigger Hike. CPI Answers at 8:30

Brad Roth
November 10, 2026

TL;DR

• Futures are split before October CPI at 8:30, with the Dow up 0.35% and the Nasdaq 100 down 0.36%. Fed governor Waller said a larger hike should be considered if the report runs hot.

• Fed funds futures put a December hike at 97.2%, up from 82.8% a day ago. The two-year is up 7.1 basis points to 4.618%.

• The even-weight strategy owns seven sectors between 13.7% and 14.3%, and all seven rose Monday. The index strategy runs half Dow, half S&P 500.

Market Pulse

Futures as of 7:12 AM ET, commodities as of 7:22 AM ET, yields as of 7:24 AM ET, currencies as of 7:22 AM ET

• S&P 500 futures are up 0.01% at 7,575.25.

• Nasdaq 100 futures are down 0.36% at 27,914.25.

• Dow futures are up 0.35% at 52,684.00.

• Russell 2000 futures are down 0.04% at 2,847.70.

Monday was a broad rally. The S&P 500 rose 2.37%, the Nasdaq 100 3.54%, the Dow 2.17% and the Russell 2000 3.23%. All eleven sectors closed green. Consumer discretionary led the even-weight strategy's seven at 2.92%, and staples trailed at 0.90%.

• West Texas is $85.23, down 1.87%. Brent is $90.54, down 2.19%.

• Gold is $4,086.40, down 0.68%. Silver is down 0.57% at $52.40, and copper is down 0.59% at $6.31.

• The three-month bill yields 4.198%. The two-year is 4.618%, up 7.1 basis points, and the ten-year is 4.892%, up 2.9.

• Euro/dollar is 1.1215, down 0.08%. The dollar buys 158.24 yen. VIX futures are 20.07, up 0.30%. Bitcoin is near $74,400, down 1.29%.

• CPI lands at 8:30, with 3.9% expected for headline and 2.8% for core. Dallas Fed President Logan speaks at 9:35, and a 10-year note auction closes at 1:00 PM.

THOR Risk Gauge

Neutral, up from Cautious. Every sector rose Monday, and VIX futures sit near 20, down from 22 a day ago. A December hike near 97% and a CPI morning keep the read from going further. The index strategy is 99.4% in stocks and the even-weight strategy 97.6%.

The THOR View

A December hike is close to settled. Futures put it at 97.2%. What's still open is the size. Waller said a larger move should be considered if October runs hot, per Investing.com. He plans to back at least a quarter point. The two-year took the news hardest, up 7.1 basis points against 2.9 for the ten-year.

Materials is 13.7% of the strategy, and it kept pace with healthcare Monday, both up 1.91%. Gold and copper run through it, by way of miners like Newmont and Freeport-McMoRan. Both metals are lower this morning as the dollar steadies on Waller's comments. A hot report would push yields higher, and higher yields tend to weigh on gold. China's numbers point the other way. Its trade surplus passed $1 trillion, with October exports up 35.2% from a year ago, per Investing.com. Factories running that hard buy copper, chemicals and packaging, and that's what this sector sells.

Financials are 14.2% of the strategy, the second-largest sector. Banks tend to handle a hike better than most of the market, since loan rates reset faster than deposit costs. The sector rose 1.45% Monday. The gap between the two-year and ten-year is about 27 basis points this morning, down from about 29 last week. Wall Street bonuses are on track to rise for a third straight year, per a consultancy cited by Investing.com.

The index strategy runs 50.1% Dow and 49.4% S&P 500. Monday the S&P 500 won by 0.2 points. This morning Dow futures lead, up 0.35% while Nasdaq 100 futures slip 0.36%. President Trump said the FBI is probing Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, per Investing.com, and chip stocks are soft before the open. Two near-equal pieces... neither has to be right on a morning when the indexes disagree.

This week on Behind the Ticker

Why the S&P Will Buy More Berkshire When Buffett Dies

With Haren Bhakta, Inside Ownership

Watch the episode →

Prefer audio? Spotify · Apple Podcasts

Signal Watch

THOR Index Rotation — As of 11/9/26

Two indexes at about half each, fully invested. The Dow held at 50.1% as Monday's rally lifted both by similar amounts.

THOR Low Volatility — As of 11/9/26

Seven sectors within 0.6 points of each other. Consumer discretionary moved up to 13.8% after leading the group Monday.

THOR AdaptiveRisk Dynamic — As of 11/9/26

The mix runs 71.2% equity, 10.7% fixed income, 10.1% alternatives, 5.3% commodity and 2.8% specialty currency. The rate hedge at 6.4% is the line most tied to this morning's report. The market-neutral anti-beta fund at 9.1% is the counterweight if a hot number hits high-multiple stocks.

THOR Conservative Risk Dynamic — As of 11/9/26

The mix runs 46.6% equity, 23.0% alternatives, 11.9% fixed income and 18.4% cash. It owns the same core lines as the AdaptiveRisk Dynamic fund at roughly twice the weight, with cash as the ballast. The rate hedge at 11.9% is its largest line tied to this morning's report.

One Thing to Watch

The 10-year note auction closes at 1:00 PM, about four hours after the report. Real estate and utilities, 27.9% of the even-weight strategy together, price off that long rate.

Brad Roth / CIO, THOR Financial Technologies

This content reflects the opinions, analyses, and research of THOR Financial Technologies as of the date published. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon as the basis for any investment decision. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, and all investments involve risk. For more information, please go to: thorft.com