Oil swings $36 in 48 hours.

TL;DR

Crude collapsed from $119 to $83 in two sessions after the White House signaled a swift end to the Iran campaign. Both funds remain almost fully invested - Dow and S&P heavy, Nasdaq sidelined - while the low-volatility strategy keeps energy and six other sectors on, with tech, financials, and real estate still off. The system processed the most violent oil move in years and held its positioning.

Market Pulse

Futures as of 7:00 AM ET

S&P 500 futures: +0.5% to 6,833 - attempting to recover Monday's 2.7% selloff
Dow futures: +0.6% to 48,055 - value continues to lead
Nasdaq 100 futures: +0.7% to 25,170 - bouncing from a 3.3% loss yesterday
WTI crude: $85.59/barrel, rebounding from yesterday's $83.45 close after the $119 spike - still a 28% round-trip in 48 hours
Gold: $5,225/oz, pushing to fresh highs on persistent safe-haven demand
10-year Treasury: 3.88%, flight to quality compressing yields
Bitcoin: ~$69,000, Crypto Fear & Greed at 18 (Extreme Fear)
VIX: 24.9, off last week's 29.5 high but still elevated

THOR Risk Gauge

Bullish

Both funds are 98%+ deployed in equities, but the positioning is selective. No Nasdaq. No tech. No financials. No real estate. The system is staying invested while choosing where to play.

The THOR View

Monday's selloff was broad, but the oil reversal is the story. Crude went from $119 to $83 - the fastest $36 swing since the 2020 pandemic shutdown. The catalyst: Trump declaring the Iran operation "very far ahead of schedule" and suggesting resolution within days. Whether that holds or not, the commodity market repriced overnight.

The index rotation strategy stayed nearly 100% invested, split almost evenly between the Dow and S&P 500. What it didn't do: load up on the Nasdaq. When the models choose between growth and value in a regime where geopolitical risk reprices daily and a Fed meeting sits six days away, they're picking the large-cap value side of the market.

Seven of ten sectors remain on - and the three that are off tell you more than the seven that are on. Technology, financials, and real estate share one thing: rate sensitivity. With the FOMC meeting next week and oil-driven inflation uncertainty on the tape, the system is avoiding the parts of the market most exposed to rate repricing.

Energy at 15.6% stands out. The models flagged the energy regime shift before the Iran situation escalated, and even after crude's collapse from $119, the sector signal hasn't reversed.

Signal Watch

THOR Index Rotation

Holdings as of 3/10/26

Index	Weight	Signal	Status
Dow (DIA)	48.94%	Risk-On	🟢
S&P 500 (SPY)	48.50%	Risk-On	🟢
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)	0.55%	Risk-Off	🔴
Cash + T-Bills (BIL)	1.95%	Cash	-

THOR Low Volatility Index

Holdings as of 3/10/26

Sector	Weight	Signal	Status
Energy (XLE)	15.58%	Risk-On	🟢
Materials (XLB)	14.85%	Risk-On	🟢
Industrials (XLI)	14.49%	Risk-On	🟢
Consumer Staples (XLP)	14.12%	Risk-On	🟢
Utilities (XLU)	13.32%	Risk-On	🟢
Consumer Discretionary (XLY)	13.02%	Risk-On	🟢
Health Care (XLV)	12.80%	Risk-On	🟢
Technology (XLK)	0.45%	Risk-Off	🔴
Real Estate (XLRE)	0.35%	Risk-Off	🔴
Financials (XLF)	0.34%	Risk-Off	🔴
Cash + T-Bills (BIL)	0.88%	Cash	-

One Thing to Watch

The FOMC meets next Tuesday and Wednesday with fresh economic projections. The Iran oil shock just handed the Fed a stagflation problem it didn't have two weeks ago - does it acknowledge crude-driven inflation, or focus on the growth risk? The market is pricing 88 basis points of cuts for 2026. If that number moves next Wednesday, everything reprices.

Brad Roth
CIO, THOR Financial Technologies

This content reflects the opinions, analyses, and research of THOR Financial Technologies as of the date published. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon as the basis for any investment decision. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, and all investments involve risk. For more information, please go to: thorft.com