Payroll Growth Is Expected to Nearly Halve. Futures Are Up Anyway

September payrolls are forecast at 89,000 against 162,000 in August. The two-year has already dropped 11 basis points, and a steeper curve pays banks, one of the even-weight strategy's three sectors.

Brad Roth
October 02, 2026

TL;DR

• September payrolls land at 8:30, with 89,000 expected against 162,000 in August. The two-year is 4.781%, down 11 basis points from this time yesterday.

• All four index futures are up between 0.50% and 0.71%. West Texas is down 3.79% and Brent slipped back under $100.

• Technology is 20.5% of the even-weight strategy after Thursday's 1.05% gain. Financials sit at 19.8%, and they're the sector a steeper curve pays first.

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Market Pulse

Futures as of 7:12 to 7:17 AM ET, commodities, rates and currencies as of 7:14 to 7:25 AM ET

• S&P 500 futures are up 0.50% at 7,763.00.

• Nasdaq 100 futures add 0.64% at 30,956.25.

• Dow futures rise 0.61% at 51,552.00.

• Russell 2000 futures are up 0.71% at 2,847.00.

Thursday was quietly constructive. The S&P 500 gained 0.18%, the Nasdaq 100 0.31% and the Russell 2000 0.41%. The Dow finished flat. Five of eleven sectors rose. Energy led at 1.95%, then technology at 1.05% and industrials at 0.99%. Healthcare finished last, down 1.32%. ISM manufacturing came in at 54.5, a touch under the 54.8 forecast.

• West Texas trades $89.35, down 3.79%. Brent is $99.98, down 2.28%.

• Gold is $4,217.35, up 0.36%. Silver is up 0.35% and copper 0.42%.

• The three-month bill yields 4.100%, the two-year 4.781%, the ten-year 5.227% and the thirty-year 5.599%.

• Euro/dollar is 1.1241 and the dollar buys 157.78 yen, down 0.20%. Volatility futures are 17.81. Bitcoin trades $86,374, up 2.85%.

• Germany's DAX futures are up 1.02% and the Nikkei 1.60%.

• Payrolls and unemployment land at 8:30, with the jobless rate expected at 4.1%. Factory orders follow at 10:00, when Dallas Fed President Logan speaks.

THOR Risk Gauge

Slightly bullish. The index strategy is 99.7% invested across all three major American indexes. The even-weight strategy holds 60.1% in three sectors and 40.4% in Treasury bills. Yields and crude are both lower this morning, and every index future is green. The jobs report at 8:30 is the swing factor.

The THOR View

The bond market has already leaned toward a softer jobs number. The two-year is 4.781%, down 11 basis points from this time yesterday. The ten-year eased 8 to 5.227%. Short rates falling faster than long rates steepens the curve, and the gap between the two is now 44.6 basis points. That's how banks get paid. They borrow short and lend further out. Financials are 19.8% of the even-weight strategy, and the regional bank fund rose 0.73% Thursday.

Crude gave back Thursday's jump. West Texas is down 3.79% at $89.35, and Brent is just under $100. Cheaper oil cools the inflation math before the jobs number even lands. All four index futures are green, with small caps in front at 0.71%. The index strategy owns the Nasdaq 100, the S&P 500 and the Dow in near-equal thirds, at 34.0%, 33.2% and 33.0%. The Nasdaq 100 closed Thursday 0.88% under its 52-week high. The Dow finished flat and is up 0.61% in futures. Its top weights are industrial and bank names, the ones most exposed to borrowing costs.

Technology rose 1.05% Thursday and closed 0.46% under its 52-week high. It's 20.5% of the even-weight strategy, the largest of its three sectors. Healthcare slipped 1.32%, and it sits at 19.8% next to financials. Equal weight lets the leader run a little without letting it take over.

Signal Watch

THOR Index Rotation — As of 10/1/26

Fully invested, in three even pieces. All three indexes rose or held flat Thursday, and all three are up at least 0.50% in futures this morning.

THOR Low Volatility — As of 10/1/26

One growth, one defensive and one rate-sensitive cyclical sector, each near 20%. The other 40.4% sits in bills, with the three-month at 4.100%.

THOR AdaptiveRisk Dynamic — As of 10/1/26

The mix runs 45.0% equity, 19.1% alternatives, 14.8% commodity, 14.4% specialty currency and 6.5% fixed income. The broad commodity fund grew to 14.8% from 4.7% and replaced the gold position as the commodity anchor. Bitcoin climbed to 12.8% from 4.1%, and bitcoin itself is up 2.85% this morning.

One Thing to Watch

Average hourly earnings are expected up 0.3% for September and 3.2% from a year ago. A soft headline with calm wages keeps short rates falling and the curve steepening. That's the mix banks earn on, and financials are 19.8% of the even-weight strategy.

Brad Roth / CIO, THOR Financial Technologies

This content reflects the opinions, analyses, and research of THOR Financial Technologies as of the date published. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon as the basis for any investment decision. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results, and all investments involve risk. For more information, please go to: thorft.com